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The trouble with PE ratios is that at present we have no idea what the E looks like and how volatile that is going forward.....Shareholders are buying based on historic numbers and expectations that in 2-3 years time earnings may resemble those numbers....
Some may be disappointed.

Those would be the quantum shareholders that had seen their share price sink to 50p and accepted 80p partly in cash part shares. Overpaying for an acquisition is always a risk and often happens.
Quantum shareholders still in profit if you think of 50p as the value of each share.

Article about Prufunds.....shoddy journalism in my view....trying to create a story which does not exist.

Sadly the article is behind the paywall.
Interesting that he should do a major interview with the times.....I wonder why he wants to raise HCM profile in the UK?
Perhaps a move from AIM to the FTSE 250 is approaching? Perhaps the M&A is for a UK based company.

Here’s my take on a possible scenario:
New broker tests the water to see if there is a potential buyer.
Buyer does not get access to the books and looks at recent SP highs and suggests this as a deal price.
BOD reckon this is much too low and continue to not allow access.
Bidder leaks the potential offer to try to force engagement

BOD considers trading update to be strong and wants a higher offer to open the books.

Bidder decides to wait for FY numbers, they can return with a number whenever they want, but the BOD needs strong numbers to justify a higher price.

Expecting a good trading update mid July.

The main terms of the insurance contract need to be highlighted to customers in the sales process. The problem is that no one knew what a pandemic might look like so insurers stuck in the exception and customers did not know, but assumed they would be covered for cancellations.

Another problem is annual policies where customers assume they can roll over cover from one year to the next...my policy renewal date was in early April, when it is reasonable to expect summer holiday To have been booked. The new policy excluded anything pandemic related hence withdrawing cover......there have to be changes to these type of policies otherwise consumers can be exploited by insurers who have underpriced or not priced in a risk. (My premium was also raised by 60% which may be the new normal but with much less travel to look forward to, I think I will be buying for each trip from now on and checking the detail of the policy.
Insurance is useless if you can’t claim and the insurer hides behind small print.

Expecting that fee income will be down due to lower footfall for regular treatments and minor ailments.
Hoping that staffing levels have recovered positioning the company for a positive unlock.

Anyone else with views?

Davey, thanks for posting links to wider pharma publications referencing HCM, always good to have more perspectives.
I think the company may also have updated a few slides on its corporate presentation on 18 June to reflect recent pipeline announcements. They will need a new one ahead of H2 to reflect the GA investment.
In terms of pipeline, I think we are just awaiting the SANET-p NDA filing. This is shown as spanning H1/2 I expect they will push for this in July ahead of the H1 results, so they can show a full set of promises met.

I think we can anticipate some consolidation of the share price in the 400-420 range ahead of results, but I anticipate a move to 450-500 once the analysts have updated their valuations. The cash flows from the pipeline are growing nearer and more certain which can only be good.

There are a couple of numbers that I am interested in:
Elunate sales.....has inclusion in the reimbursement list resulted in a major expansion. Note this may be tempered by Covid delaying treatment.
R&D pipeline spending on track of previous guidance plus forward looking view of cash flows.

Any development in estimates for surufatinib and Savolitinib sales in 2021.

Trinity updated its website with information about the cash raised yesterday and left its price target unchanged but noted it would review its model with analysis of the HY results. I expect this will result in a significant valuation uplift.

BB i understand you now. Indeed there could be a drag on the share price on the basis that GA want to realise their investment quickly.
It seems the initial investment has a restriction such that they cannot be sold in the US unless HCM registers them and only then can they be sold with a prospectus. The description about the warrant does not mention a similar constraint....but it may be there.
I suspect these terms are intended to lock GA in for some time which is also their objective for a long term patient investment.
That is not to say that they will not want an exit at some point but I expect both parties are thinking in years rather than in 18m time to start selling down. A lot will happen in that time.

So the initial result is in HCM up 4% in the US (market only up .2%)
Not bad for a day one investment by GA

BB while I agree that the warrant is potentially dilutive the fact it is known about allows the IIs that set the market price to factor it in. It is better than a surprise funding round, hence I don’t expect it to have a material effect.
Just a reminder to save up and buy more under $30 which is surely going to be breached in the next 18months. (Actually I expect sooner as the market is bound to get a bit ahead of itself)

The immediate question is how the US market reacts and we will know soon enough
Will the current institutional investors punish HCM for not letting them participate and sell down?
Will the market think this is positive and jump a dollar or two?
Or was the market managed to 25 last night and shrug its shoulders and not move.
Your guess is as good as mine

I have looked at their website and listened to their about them video.
They sound to me like a “family office” that has extended to include institutional investors. They are patient long term capital.....
I think they have come to HCM at the timing they like....expecting significant revenue growth. However HCM is only a small % investment, hardly a typical “portfolio” company.
Hence I think it is more of an investment performance play by AG to give them an investment that may give them a 15-20% pa return for relatively less risk than earlier stage companies.
If they get that for 5 years they will double their money and if they like it, they are in pole position to acquire further CKHH divestments.
A win win situation? I think so.

I liked that GA would leverage its other assets to help HCM.
Also a cursory read of the smaller print it seems that GA has some restrictions on its ability to sell its stake.

Overall I think this is a big vote of confidence in the company. Still a strong buy in my opinion.

This is a different method of funding, bringing in a strategic investor.
We knew that more cash would be needed, history has been to raise $100m In the market every 6-12 months...this appears to be a more efficient way of raising equity. We will see what the market reaction is today.
My view is that this strengthens the company. Potentially no future cash raise is needed as this will add another year to the investment runway and to self sufficiency.

You know it is a good share to invest in when the SP is up and the market is down by 3%.

The ADS have just gone through $25.
This is a significant uplift on the fund raising price in Feb 20.
I would not be surprised to see $30 within a few weeks as the market revalues prospects and further pipeline news is released.

Let’s see what RBC Capital Markets bring to the table.
They should be able to find new investors and promote the value of the company.

Calisen seems to have higher valuation metrics possibly not deserved....maybe RBC can encourage the market to revalue SMS upwards.

I have made my first investment here after watching the share for about 2 years. I like the purpose to improve energy efficiency and the company should be able to capitalise on new green economy measures. I also like that they can realise a capital value from installed assets. The market is raising the value of such assets as income generation falls elsewhere. Time for a re-rating and back to the growth of a few years ago

These may be the last days of paying under 400.
It will look like a bargain in a couple of years