Member Info for Jatw

How long will this run last?
FY trading update in July could be pivotal

I like to have themed trackers rather than whole of market....it gives the chance for picking sectors that are winning rather than getting winners and loses.
Recently the LG Global Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals and the LG Global Technology funds have been favourites of mine. ...other focused funds and ETFs exist.

If the rationale is to protect US investors from more dubious accounting then the market organisers should prevent such companies listing in the first place.
Anyway if the US prevents US investors from gaining access to quality investments they deny themselves. Cut off nose to spite face comes to mind.

HCM needs to decide where it wants it’s primary listing. Given a free choice I suspect that is HK, NASDAQ and London in third place

MNG profitability is geared to AUM which in turn is customer fund flows and market performance.
We cannot discount a second wave sell off in the markets, but certainly markets appear to be focused on recovery at present.....if this continues then MNG is a strong buy at these levels and can be expected to rise towards 200p which will depress the yield to its original expectation of 6-8%.

And the next challenge For 2021 will be to get distribution flowing in the US....still time to see how they approach this.
I am not familiar with distribution in the US and how it is changing.....can they go direct with digital and a small number of people or is a large team required in every state. Will they need a partner and what models work under such arrangements?

The rolling NDA process for US registration is good news...there is still some risk that extra work may be needed, but the willingness of FDA to engage on this basis is really encouraging.
Those Jersey Boys are earning their way.

Recent annual reports will give you the story across Asia.
HK has been flat for the last 4 years. China has grown rapidly, Indonesia was good then stumbled and was rebuilt Now growing again pre pandemic, Thailand has seen several M&As to become a major player.
HK and China are the main story and other territories will have their pandemic downturn on a delayed timetable.
However Pru Asia is innovating and going digital to reduce costs and reliance on f2f. They had a large footprint pre pandemic and there is no indication as yet that they will be weaker post pandemic.....Pru is a buy and hold share for me as it rides the growth in Asian GDP. Despite the setback in 2020 this demographic trend will return and with it the Pru valuation.

The news on tagrisso was very encouraging.....potentially many more $bn in sales to come.
Long term buy and hold...

Thx.
The paper summaries are now available on the asco site by clicking on the submission number in the mid MAY HCM announcement.
Savo in MET14 skipping pts, they have 61 evaluated pts with promising response rates and disease control.....study dat still maturing. The NDA announcement means they are reasonably confident this data set is sufficient for registration.
Savoir - it seems they were too hasty to close the study based on external review of the sutinib comparator, it did not perform as well as expected in the study.....hence it looks like Savoir or some other prcc trial is worthwhile as Savo performed well against sutinib.
Suru, there is a quality of life paper from the China EpNET cohort which supports tolerability for pts. There is a second paper about tolerability in US pts, this suggests no difference from China results. This should help determine the approval pathway exChina.
There are two fruqinitib assessments. The first identifies a group of pts that may benefit more from Elunate. The second is an interim update on v sick gastrointestinal cancer pts showing positive tolerability and efficacy.

These are all positive for HCM. Pointers for Monday,
how do these papers support route to approval
How much extra spend being committed in 20-22 for these products

Nothing nasty reported on SCMP.....could be a better Monday
Buy Monday, sell Thursday might be a good strategy for the next few weeks

Wonder why they are building a stake.....up to 6% now....is for their funds, proprietary trading or for a client.

What do we expect based on the four ASCO papers
Savo NDA tick, size of the target market. Plans for Savoir study to restart
Suru progress with global registration studies

Fruq gastric cancer update and Colorectal registration study x China
I will try to listen in, but may not be able to.....would be good to have a summary posted

I am also of the view that the best days lie in front of the company and intend to hold for a long time. The pipeline is delivering a transformation in the next couple of years.

You are right to highlight CKHH as the major shareholder and this may determine the company’s future. HCM is held By CKHH as an investment rather than a core business. CKHH quite likes to turn its investments over through reorganisations and M&A as it can then revalue its investments and it may want to realise value to pay its shareholders at some point.

There are a lot of assumptions in valuing the company, the two research notes referenced by Davey are a starting point.
The company has improved its corporate presentation to give a good view of pipeline developments expected and recognises competition for its drug candidates. This tells me that it has decent levels of internal governance, it has also been successful in picking its candidates. There have been failures as well as many positives....this is good as recognising failure early will avoid wasted costs.

The next 2-3 years are pivotal. Hcm should become cash positive and remove the need for fresh equity raises. They will also have the option to raise debt if needed and may start to pay a dividend.
The company will need additional funds at the end of next year, it regularly issues new ADS in tranches of $100m. The company has spoken of a HK listing as an alternative.
Key risks
US China relations impact funding ability
Partner behaviour [lilly and AZ) restricts development
Trial failure (Savo) as key value element
Commercial sales not meeting expectations (Fruq and Suru)
CKHH needs not aligned with HCM results in early sale at low value
Covid effects delay development or reduce ability to pay for new drugs

Pts......not PGS

Tagrisso looks like a winner
With Savo as the fall back for PGS that become resistant the combo is also loooking stronger.

HCM on NASDAQ is currently up 8%.
Largely erasing the falls f the last week.....seems very fickle to me.
This company’s best years are ahead.....current operations are almost irrelevant when compared to the pipeline which is hugely valuable.
There is little reason for the market to be gyrating when the main profits are likely to be under the next presidents of china and US, without pipeline news.....
Buy and buy into any fundraisers.

AIM shares do not get the following and analysis they deserve and quite a few funds are not allowed to invest. There should be a maximum size and an automatic transfer to the main board, say £1bn. The additional regulations would benefit investors and broaden ownership generally positive uplift on the SP.

Liberum upgrade price to 1050 has helped today.
Hopefully Peel Hunt will be similarly emboldened.
These price surges on Aim are quite common so it will go higher and overshoot. I am going to hold...although if it does something silly like 1400 I will be tempted to sell and hope to buy back lower.

Looking at how MNG has bounced, I feel this would have been 300p or more if the BOD had held their nerve.
In the absence of a further calamity a return to dividend payments will see a decent rise coming.

25% leap over such a few days.
Was oversold, now probably overbought in the short term.....but still prospects for further gains as we live with Covid.