Member Info for Jatw

Only 2 months left in the first half of the year....the 2 promised NDAs must be getting v close.

Once there are vaccines and treatment options for the virus the pharma interest will abate somewhat and most shares in the sector will decline as investors rotate on to the next hot area.
AZN May be an exception because it’s progress has been marked by an enviable run of successful trials of novel treatments that are likely to generate significant sales and profits. It is backed up by scientific research rather than puffed up by speculation.

AZN has certainly hit a purple patch over the last 18 months. The strategy to invest in new drugs has certainly been a success.
Thank you Mr Soriot

Be careful. If you do find out something you must not trade (buy or sell) before it is communicated on an RNS otherwise you and your cousin could be fined or go to jail for insider trading.

The dividend is payable on 29 May. Shares currently trading XD.
Has to be approved at the AGM on 27 May.
Likely to be paid unless the markets fall significantly impacting the solvency of the group.
Ordinary and special dividend could be treated separately.

Why do the larger companies on Aim no longer convert to the main board?
ABC would be firmly in the FTSE250 and would gain more institutional shareholders.
I thought that one of the founding principles of aim was to grow and move the the main board.

I would think a Nasdaq share issue next year is one of the more likely outcomes.
The proleukin deal was large and risky, the more recent deal is smaller and 18m out. I am sure the BOD would like to do a larger deal if they can. There must be some drugs falling out of the recent large US mergers that would fit the bill. However I would rather they buy newer better drugs than try to revive those that are end of patent or being superseded by better treatments.

If moving to the main FTSE, Clin would be around 250 and would need to x4 to make the FTSE100. Possible and would open the company to more investors which can only help the share price

What do you think a new NOMAD will bring?
Better marketing to new SH
Move to main board from AIM? NASDAQ listing?
Refinancing?
M&A?

NFP during the pandemic......so once it becomes a regular vaccine it will be for profit. AZ ends up with a significantly upgraded manufacturing capability for free.

The BOD will be obliged to give a business update ahead of the AGM.
We have to remember that the Asia business has been operated with 12-15% compound growth in new business and has a high retention of regular premium business.....the persistence of the regular business is far more important than a drop in sales. It will be interesting to hear about customer support measures (premium holidays) and persistency.
10-12 GBP is probably about right given current uncertainty.
But as the situation is Asia and US stabilises the volatility should decline and we can perhaps get back to some growth in sales and the value of the company.

Always apprehensive to see an RNS headed dividend....but relieved to see it announced the sterling rate for the dividend as 20.8p. Expecting it to go ahead unless there is another significant market fall.

Interested in how others feel about holding HCM.
I for one am increasingly comfortable to hold for the long term and am planning on putting further investments into the shares this year.
Why?
The company is addressing a market with unmet needs.
It has a broad pipeline of candidates and a strategy to build out from China to be global. It has potential to become a global pharma company with a market cap a multiple of its current valuation.
The senior management have been recruited with proven skills to commercialise the science.
The company is transparent in what it expects to deliver and when, it has rarely disappointed.
It is prudently managed with regular equity funding rounds rather than becoming loaded with debt.
It has a long term investor that epitomises patient capital, but will act to crystallise value when it needs to.
It is Brexit proof and largely Covid proof.
Hence I expect this to be a long term holding for me.

I also accept there are risks with the company. It’s portfolio of drug candidates has to be proven. It is Chinese by choice and may face some Temporary prejudices post Covid. There will likely be some additional equity funding required which may dampen / set back the share price temporarily.

Similar effects will allow the rest of the world registration studies to be in line with the China studies and a justification for the priority review by FDA.
The China study was stopped with a PFS of 9m. Assuming they need to mirror this result, they will be doing well to get the study completed late 2021 with registration H1 2022.

Otto see all at sea.....diversification within and across sectors s key....ride the winners and try to avoid the losers /cut losses early.
There is a reason Pru and LGEN have outperformed Aviva for so long and it is strategy and organic growth.....Aviva has bolted together a lot of troubled businesses so it is big but not very effective....the hope is that it finds what it is good at and builds a strategy around that....but there has not been that clarity expressed by BOD for a while.

A further positive is that this provides a forward underpin for the company. It will survive the virus....
I have to reiterate that the potential for an anti bacterial mouthwash in China post virus is huge. As a western brand it will command top price bu there will be local products that will sell in much larger volumes....the critical success factor for this contract is gaining market share.

Distributor not taking much risk here....but if this encourages them to market the product better then £10m pa is tiny within China so there is huge potential.....although they can buy the min and lock out the product from the market to sell a local version in its place....hope the BOD are China smart.

Oxford Uni testing starting in Bristol this week.
Volunteers to be paid £235

Using a compound interest rate and a starting point of $2.6bn, 20bn takes
15y@15%
11y@20%
9y@25%
But add a 5-10bn merger and a 20bn company is readily achievable in that timeframe..
I think Hilton was using a higher starting point which just shows how much value has been lost in the last couple of years.

It will have tanked before any divi cancellation because the most likely cause would be a severe deterioration in the solvency ratio triggered by mass default and downgrades on the assets backing the annuity business and/or equity market falls.
Lgen no longer has a general insurance business so it it less exposed to Covid claims, it may have to pay out some death claims, but it is the working population that has these policies and the increased death rate is not high for this group, Lgen annuity business will benefit from elderly deaths as this will affect liabilities. There may be some negative equity on lifetime mortgages but the PRA has already strengthened reserving requirements so may not be too bad.

There is little to no furloughing in the insurer/asset manager space - business transactions are up (albeit money out) and funds need extra oversight so lots of work for now. So expect margins to take a hit.....there will be cost reductions made but not yet.

Aviva will rise with all other financials.....eventually. Insurance and savings are necessary.
The strategic question the BOD need to articulate is why customers should choose Aviva products.
If they are more customer centric and deliver value they will prosper.....however nobody really knows what Aviva stands for and so assume it is just another insurer.
More and sometimes less of the same appears to be what is on offer to investors and that does not seem to be inspiring.
Twenty years of decline, it needs to be broken up to allow the more innovative parts to access new opportunities.