Member Info for Jatw

Valuation unchanged at Nearly £7 /share. Noting broker valuations are usually 1yr targets, I am Happy to hold and make steady progress towards the target in the next 3-5 years by which time more potential value will be evident from the current pipeline.
15% pa quite achievable for next 5years.

It may have been quite a small retail offering, hence the large over subscription, but the relevance for HCM is that the market may be more open to a listing than previously thought.

Re the two papers being presented this weekend. The first is a phase 1 with the Junshi PDL1 the second is comparing western and Asian tolerance to surufatinib. The latter is more immediately relevant given the priority review for surufatinib by the FDA.

The buy back will support the SP for much of this year....I expect this will be one of th better wealth management stocks to hold in 2020. Although the sector as a whole will be under cost pressure as fee income is suppressed by lower AUM.

Possibly overspill from an oncology IPO in HK that SCMP reports as 600x subscribed. It raised 300m USD.
Market is open to new listings.

Q is it just a delayed reaction to the FDA news about Surufatinib on Friday?
That was a nice surprise.
The NDAs for suru and Savo should be along soon.....these are not a surprise except for their arrival date

200k@50p more likely a buy than a sell

Anyone heard what is driving the sp higher today?
Delayed reaction to fridays update? Or something else?

Good things come to those that wait....AZ pipeline is getting stronger....no plans to sell anytime soon...

Still a lot of guesswork in the analysts DCFs.....
Having said that, the recent news has been positive in accelerating the pipeline towards commercialisation. In a couple of years the prospects for Elunate, surufatinib and savolitinib will all be much clearer.....
The market probably feels these are too remote at present and is applying a heavier discount....it may also be thinking there may be further equity issuance which will dilute holdings and therefore may not want to commit too early. There are some big moves to be made to commercialise these drugs globally that require further investment once it is clear how the company will finance itself then the shares will be valued more accurately towards DCF methods.

Made a small top up to average down my entry price.....will do so again with my isa allowance.

The SP is now back to where I entered in 2018. The company seems much more assured now.....extended range of products, bigger distribution footprint and operating in a market that is going to grow as personal hygiene and treatment of minor ailments is going to be encouraged post covid19.
I expect to buy again in the coming weeks of my new ISA.

Cannot be much stock for sale.....if 10k purchase is at a 10% premium.

The approval of Surufatinib in the US will be a seminal moment for HCM and announce it as a global player in oncology treatment.
Today’s news will advance the reputation of HCM and accelerate its progress to a self funding pharma co.
For CKHH the commercialisation needs outside China present a stepping off point......anticipate a strategic investor to take a stake either through new investment or part sale by CKHH down to a 25% stake.

Virus vaccine will get kudos for the developer, but govts will pay minimum possible as they will expropriate or extort a contribution from big pharma towards the clean up costs....how dare they profit!

The good news for AZ is elsewhere, Tagrisso got a big step up this week with the ADAURA trial stopped early.....this will be much more valuable in the long run.

Can’t see why you think the divi is under threat here....it is about 1% yield and costs about £25m pa. The co has spent 120m on acquisitions and just raised 110m in new shares.....should be plenty of liquidity to keep the small divi going.
The threat to the divi would come from poor operating profits......

The US regulatory team is earning its way. Swift follow through on global development on the back of Chinese results and vice versa is just what is needed. They have about 18m to put the distribution capability in place.

GSK is certainly not boring these days....investment in VIR and Cooperation agreement with Sanofi. Clearly they think there is money and kudos to be gained from finding and manufacturing a vaccine for Covid19. The scale of the problem with potentially billions of doses needed means there will be room for many....I suspect the authorities will move to control prices but making a dollar euro pound on each of 100m units will be well worth it.

Here is my experience as a customer.......
Tried to get advice from HSX prior to cancelling a holiday due to a state of emergency at the destination declared the day before travel....4 day response was inconclusive.
Rang up and told to file a claim.
Filed the claim....rang up a week later....told there was a two week backlog in recording claims...please call back
Three weeks on from lodging the claim it is still not on their system......

If they reject my claim I will complain....if they reject it again I will go to the ombudsman

In the meantime the renewal quote was up 60% and any claim attributable to the pandemic was excluded....including any continuity of expected cover from the current policy.

Having only one small trip planned which cannot be insured and is unlikely to happen I will be taking my chances with refunds and have not taken the renewal.

They will spend a lot more money denying and defending claims and lose customer good will.
I pay about 3k for household insurance and have been highly satisfied with the service and two claims....hence I was a customer happy to purchase additional cover from hiscox who are lets face it far from the cheapest in the market...

This company will find it hard to escape the drag of covid19 on its business. SELL

Tagrisso appears to be turning into a true blockbuster for AZ. This should be positive for HCM with practitioners that use Tagrisso then moving on to Savo when tagrisso is not enough....
Awaiting the Savo NDA soon and Savannah data later in the year

Today’s update is positive...new product acquired and business holding up well.