Member Info for Jatw

AZ has announced the early unblinding of ADAURA study. The RNS mentions ongoing related Savolitinib studies.....

The terms insurer and insurance are much abused.
The short term risk business (RSA, DL) are much more exposed to event driven catastrophes and poor product pricing than the long term risk businesses and the asset managers who tend to receive a reduced fee LGEN, AV, MNG are mixtures of these types of business.

Annuity providers are exposed because they have guaranteed a policyholder benefit (offset by some additional deaths this year) and have matched assets which may now face higher defaults. Savings businesses may suffer reduced profitability and need to reduce costs, but they will not become insolvent.
It seems likely that travel insurance has been severely under priced (my latest renewal was up 60%) compared to the risk and hence hiscox, Aviva, dl may take a big hit in this and business interruption /income protection this year.....this should be reflected I their ability to pay dividends. If Lgen has funds to pay a dividend then it should, but the board should be reviewing this in the light of current market conditions......SH will be treated v poorly if they are asked for capital in the near future as that will be priced punitively by the market when compared to the dividend.

On the other hand, the PRA is judge jury and executioner.....
The SII regs may allow LGEN and others to assert they can afford to pay a dividend.....but the regulator has to agree ....a court process to determine whether the regulator is acting ultra vires to a company following the rules May be the only way to determine what is permissible, but the timetable for such an action will likely make the dividend impossible to deliver.

The finance community adapts pretty quickly to new circumstances and the lawyers will see to it that there is little to no effect.
HCM could become US / British quite quickly....CKHH is registered in the Cayman Islands so is not actually Chinese. HCM could easily move HQ from HK.

Rich shareholders are mostly the pension funds of modest earners.
The insurers (and banks) have well documented sets of management actions that can be used to preserve capital. These plans are shared with the PRA, hence the PRA knows what the companies plan to do and their capital return plans.....you have to wonder what the point of all that work is when the regulator overrides the system....
If this capital is not required by the companies now they may as well use it for M&A.

These are the early 2020 key activities in the FY announcement. The year was divided into 3, so this may be what we can expect before the end of April....the first two are delivered....the two NDAs are awaited and the combination studies are partway through. NDAs are most critical in this period.

Savolitinib – Phase Ib/II data (CALYPSO) – PRCC cohort overall survival results for the Imfinzi® / savolitinib combination presented at ASCO GU (February 2020); DONE
HMPL-453 – Phase II study start – FGFR 1/2/3 inhibitor in advanced malignant mesothelioma; DONE
Savolitinib – NDA submission in MET exon 14 deletion NSCLC in China – first NDA submission globally for savolitinib;
Surufatinib – NDA submission in pancreatic NET in China – following the recent positive SANET-p Phase III interim analysis;
PD-1 combos – Initiation of multiple Phase II studies in China – for surufatinib/fruquintinib in combination with Tuoyi®/Tyvyt®; and. PART DONE
PD-1 combos – Phase I dose-finding data for surufatinib plus Tuoyi® combination – presentation of preliminary data at major scientific conference.

I have not found any data about the patient population for this.....it sounds like it is currently difficult to treat but How rare it is will determine the valuation at the completion of the Ph2 study...do they have another successful product here? We will know soon enough

Buy backs in current conditions could be highly effective if you believe the company is significantly undervalued in the market...more shares will be cancelled than expected meaning higher eps in the future. It also supports the market soaking up the supply of shares by willing sellers. That can have a downside when the programme comes to an end.

Better the companies don’t have to tap shareholders for more funds...having just paid out....
If the dividend can be paid I t he future we can expect some bumper special divs and buy backs

AstraZeneca's Imfinzi (durvalumab) has been approved in the US as a 1st-line treatment for adult patients with extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) in combination with standard-of-care (SoC) chemotherapies, etoposide plus either carboplatin or cisplatin (platinum-etoposide).

AstraZeneca in lung cancer
AstraZeneca has a comprehensive portfolio of approved and potential new medicines in late-stage development for the treatment of different forms of lung cancer spanning different histologies, several stages of disease, lines of therapy and modes of action. We aim to address the unmet needs of patients with EGFR-mutated tumours as a genetic driver of disease, which occur in 10-15% of NSCLC patients in the US and EU and 30-40% of NSCLC patients in Asia, with the approved medicines Iressa (gefitinib) and Tagrisso (osimertinib), and its ongoing Phase III trials ADAURA, LAURA, and FLAURA2.7-9 We are also committed to addressing tumour mechanisms of resistance through the ongoing Phase II trials SAVANNAH and ORCHARD which test Tagrisso in combination with savolitinib, a selective inhibitor of c-MET receptor tyrosine kinase, along with other potential new medicines. Enhertu (trastuzumab deruxtecan), a HER2-directed antibody drug conjugate is in development for metastatic non-squamous HER2-overexpressing or HER2-mutated NSCLC including trials in combination with other anticancer treatments.

Good to see spare capacity generating a return, although the barriers to entry to the antiseptic gel market seem very limited so the profits from this will be short term. The China orders for Dentyl are more significant. These types of product can act to kill oral bacteria and viruses and may have long term take up in under developed markets and provide a stimulus to sales in more advanced markets......should get a boost from Covid19 for several years.....it is an ill wind that blows no one any good. A long anticipated return for long suffering VLG shareholders is on the cards.

A well capitalised insurer with a strong Asian franchise continues to be a valuable growth asset....AIA Ping An aNd Pru fit the bill nicely. These three will continue to carve up the region.

With the mood music improving even as the numbers deteriorate the outcome for markets seem to be stabilising

And the valuation gap keeps on growing.

Strange but true.
The difficulty is pricing the issue fairly between new and current SH. There are too many days when the US price swing is 15% plus at the moment.
What is true is that the strong companies post virus will be much stronger than those that are currently weak and will either be able to buy up decent profit streams for low multiples or see competitors whither away saddled by debt and unable to invest in new product. Some big but indebted companies will bet the farm on small innovative deals they hope will reinvigorate them.

I see HCM developing its distribution in China then purchasing distribution rights from distressed sellers to maximise the use of the sales force.

CKHH posted decent results for 2019.
Should be robust enough to weather this storm without having to sell HCM.....

And most will be sold again before The day is out for a zero risk position overnight

I continue to hold and will add again soon...this company continues to have a bright future that is beyond the corona time horizon.
My main fear is that in the meantime CKH has a desperate need for cash and sells up too cheaply....but even that scenario may create a bid at a significant premium to today’s price.

Is Pru now back ahead of MNG?

Depends on your time horizon for holding and appetite for loss.
If you buy now, you will be 50%up if you are to make any profit on your SAYE.
SAYE with no profit is. Nil interest saving scheme.
Keep on with the SAYE if you have no appetite for loss and see the share price going back to 180 in 3 years. If you can lose the money (it is possible MNG fails) then save directly outside the SAYE.

RAISED their guesstimate to 1700 from 1680....clearly they were good results or MS has a lot of stock to shift