Member Info for Jatw

Part of the problem is that asset managers do not put enough pressure on banks and peers to hold sufficient quality of capital. Advisors and lawyers try to find ways of Boards just meeting the regulatory minimum but this leaves the regulator feeling vulnerable as they do not want a major failure on their watch. They are also worried about unforeseen contagion across the market.

I think the grouping is arguing for regulators to be allowed to take more risk
If firms need fail their directors need to be examined and bonuses / profits withdrawn by penalties and prison in some cases.

The herd response for any traders is to sell....this issue was something of a surprise as CH has been talking down the need for a fund raise.....any recent investors with stop losses will have been triggered.....hence we have a huge market movement for a small event.
I don’t mourn their losses as I would rather have long term holders in this long term business.

Historically the company has operated with a 2-3 year fully funded balance sheet. They were expected to use their own cash reserves (not borrowing facilities) end 2021 so this raise will push that out to 2022 and with cash starting to flow from surufatinib next year It may be the last one for a while...

lots of recent momentum buyers badly burned.....their stop losses triggered.

The real gains in this share will come when there is little need to raise funds ever again

Possibly the Last chance to get in under 400p

Company SPs often perform well after a share issue....particularly those that are for positive business reasons.
I said at the CKHH sale that the market would have another bite at the SP in a HK listing and this is no different.
The strong run of late shows the underlying opportunity......the Board is right to tuck away some cash now.....if they leave it 12 months they would be harder pressed and the discount would be deeper.
History will Show this to be a good buying opportunity

We now have an offer of about 3m new ADS
Good to do the raise after a strong rally let’s see how the market reacts.....as it appeared to come out after the US closed yesterday and is not yet listed as an RNS

There has been a spike in Quilter this afternoon after Bloomberg reported Warburg pincus is considering a bid.
QLT plugs a gap in AV distribution and asset management.
Aviva should consider using its reserves to buy if QLT is in play

Bloomberg reporting Warburg pincus considering a bid.

They can have my shares for 250.

Opportunities:
MNG has good re-rating chances as its track record develops....
LGEN a is growing in its markets and has a well articulated strategy
PRU now a US and Asia play show grow in line with its core markets ( 12-15%)
Aviva is a sleeping giant and needs a buy side transformational story

20% compounding is double in 4 years
15% compounding is double in 5 years
Somewhere in this range feels about right for a growth stock.
And the takeout price is probably a 70-100% premium.

Neither trend is guaranteed to continue.....and Sod’s law will mean Aviva jumps after you sell or Fundsmith suffers a deterioration in performance.
If you hold Be grateful for the dividend yield which is better than keeping it in the bank

Excellent indeed.
The more optimistic of us will have been expecting a positive result, andSuru has delivered again and looks like a winner.

I look forward to the analysts updating their valuation models......and to the PD1 trial results in due course which might indicate wider applications.

The market reaction in NY tomorrow could be interesting.

M&A should never be mentioned lightly and without a target in mind, otherwise it highlights gaps in the acquirers portfolio and can turn attack into defence.
Ck life sciences has a pharma division with oncology and pain products under development.
M&A could be within the CK family. This would be achievable because of the common ownership and would mirror other business reorganisations in that family to create focus in the divisions.
It would also be a good story to accompany a placing or IPO and associated listing in HK.

5 March is the next opportunity for Tulloch and others to explain why the market should buy Aviva.
The markets bounced in December which should give the best asset and hence capital position.
We can expect an increase in the dividend but this is just increasing the yield.....what SH want is to know that retained capital is for high ROCE projects that will increase the value of the company. A lean efficient and growing Aviva will revive the share price.

Pleased to say that the Quantum shares I bought during the bid process have returned to profit and with the cash paid I am v happy to hold for future benefits to accrue.
I have seen some Quantum shareholders be negative on here....but they were previously in a nose diving share....we will never know if Quantum / Clin would have done better apart but the future certainly looks bigger for the combined entity.

while the announcement was strong it was selective in its metrics. EBITDA May equate to operating profit but excludes changes in capital values
Interest will be UP (fee for proleukin and acquisitions)
Depreciation Amortisation may be significant (goodwill, new ERP system, intangible asset of proleukin)
So we need to see the full picture of the financial health of the company which is perhaps why there was a muted reaction yesterday.
The company has gone through transformational change with two major acquisitions and then the significant investment in a single drug. These changes give investors cause to pause and see how they shape up.
For me the next year is pivotal and will demonstrate whether proleukin can make a positive contribution and how the acquisitions are integrated and value adding. If they are expect more significant M&A on a higher SP

At this rate, $40 will not be long in coming

CEO sounded very bullish.....lots of transformative development this year.

Surprise was potential for acquisition of large molecule expertise.

Thanks BBD.....a rational assessment.
Indeed the results and in particular the 2020 H1 results could be pivotal in the race. I expect it will be a close run race. Forward guidance and progress on strategy will be key differentiators.

No split for 3-4 years according to Pfizer.