Member Info for Jatw

We have been over the dividend calcs before, suffice it to say that 14% represents about two full years (final and special already set out for 2019 in the demerger process, an interim and final for 2020 all payable before June 2021) and the current yield is around 7%. Lgen is at 5.3 and AV at 7.2, SLA at 6.9%.
Mng should be closer to LGEN....a 6% yield would be around the £3 mark which seems perfectly reasonable.
But there is always something to worry about....and that is currently the Middle East. Buy on weakness.

H, suspect you are right....Just will be in the FT350 from Monday and there has been a lot of buying in the last couple of days. Undoubtedly there will be buying from the funds covering this part of the London market.
just it dependent on UK economic performance and house price growth to come back to health. This is a recovery /special situations stock, but one operating in a market that is growing with good prospects, hence there is an excellent chance of a strong recovery if management sticks to its plan and there are no capital surprises from the PRA.

The WP fund has to find a home for new business coming in from PruFund that is growing the size of the fund. The diverse investment portfolio permits the fund to take some long term but illiquid positions that are expected to generate returns for 20+ years. Ideal for infrastructure and property development.
The OEIC property fund is defined by the flow of money into and out of one class of assets all of which is illiquid, it does not have the resources to invest for the long term it must buy property if the fund is expanding and sell if it is contracting.
Certain types of property are in demand....the 40 Leadenhall site for eco friendly offices fits the bill as old inefficient buildings may be taxed more in future and become more expensive to operate from....although the recent election and change in mood to reinvigorate the North means it might have been better to build inManchester or Leeds....property is a long term game

Off to a good start on NASDAQ, ADS now $26...still plenty of headroom to grow into.

Azn and Merck have got FDA approval for a set of pancreatic cancer patients.

Something for HCM to comment on when the SANET-p readout comes and a reason to accelerate the us registration study for ep net

Davey
Thanks for relisting the macro issues that have affected the share price this year.
2,5,6 and 7 are closely related. While US China relations appear to have improved, I think these could easily return around the US presidential election. In the short to medium term these have little operational impact on the company and so may represent good opportunities to buy. In the long term the US and China need to work out how to get along.....

The situation in HK shows no real sign of improvement and may become a new normal but it will hurt HK as a financial centre in the medium to long term again there is no immediate impact on operations.
However the company will need to raise some funds before long to support investment and expansion...there is a clear and compelling case for equity investment so the dilution effect should be manageable......the IPO whether it is HK or Shanghai will in my view be a big buy opportunity as there will undoubtedly be a discount for the new shares. I expect CKHH to maintain its share which will underpin the IPO.

As for the positives to drive the SP there are a few already planned for H1 2020 within the latest company presentation. The pipeline news flow looks like it will provide a steady stream of new data points (hopefully) positive.

I like that the company has matured....it recognises competitors in its presentations and provides increasing levels of information about its development prospects.....but it does seem to take ages to bring these products to market increasing the risk that someone gets there quicker. .it seems like we have been waiting on Savolitinib for ages so it will be good to get one indication approved.

I like that Surufatinib has a priority review in China and a seemingly promising future outside China. It should provide good cash flows in 2022, in not 2021, and proves HCM as a global pharma company.
It would be good to see Fruquintinib approved for gastric cancer and even better to feel that Lilly was committed to making it a success. The issue with joint development is that the risks are asymmetric between HCM and Lilly/AZN, the established pharma has other treatments competing for investment and can reduce their investment with HCM. Hopefully they don’t divert their efforts and they provide more opportunities for the partnered drug, but any renegotiation could be seen as weakness in the prospects for the drug. Which is where the new collaborations will come into play finding new areas where HCMs drugs can be deployed (note that Lilly is involved in atleast one of the partners for fruquintinib).

Overall I am positive and very long on HCM

Best wishes to all HCM followers, it has been an eventful 2019.
The company has continued to deliver on its pipeline development. Fruquintinib is now live and has full patient access next year. Surufatinib has excelled in ep Net and should be launched well before the end of 2020.
But 2020 is when savolitinib should break through and progress to approval stages. That will be 3 drugs in three years.
We are set for an exciting 2020.....personally I will be adding to my holdings and would like the sp to increase only modestly while I am doing this.......hoping for near 500p in 12m rather than the 8$ (£6) implied by returning to $40/ads...that can be for 2021, but the market does not move in straight lines so we may get to Davey’s target somewhat quicker than I would like.

Here’s to a successful 2020 and beyond....

the recent investment in the Dai Ichi drug is starting to look like a well placed bet on a future blockbuster.

With the SP now we’ll above the CKHH sale price, I hope we can declare that event over....with the focus now on the pipeline and the innovation being delivered to patient benefit.

Presumably this will shave a month or two off the launch date.....helpful recognition of the potential impact of this drug.
We need the Chinese regulatory authority to gain equivalence with US and Europe for future drugs to be rolled our faster globally and for such drugs to automatically be added to the NRDL as part of the approval process. These measures would greatly accelerate early sales.
I suppose the priority review might just allow this to get onto NRDL in 2020.....otherwise it will be 2022 before there is good patient access.

And the UK spread has been much lower which is encouraging

Not sure whether today’s RNS is just a restated holding from Pru days. I recall CG held 9+% and sold down to about 5% pre the split.

The HUtchison is out of vogue.
CK Pharma
CK Meditech
Would be more appropriate and fit with CK Life Sciences

I hold both plus Pru and MNG.
I keep holding on to Av in the hope of a rerating but it keeps on being delayed......Aviva has not articulated a consistent strategy and has not executed brilliantly either...it deserves to be at NAV although what quality those assets are is debatable given the number of JVs and cyclical businesses in the group. One day some gold may emerge....but it is a lot of base metal at the moment.
Nuri you need to diversify your risk.

Aviva was more similar but inferior to Prudential plc in its global ambitions.
MNG has asset management capability and distribution across EU and UK that is superior to AV. The MNG with profits product has brought in 50bn in the last 5 years, Aviva is closed from a WP perspective.
AV leads MNG on low margin corporate pensions
MNG does not operate general insurance (low margin and cyclical), does not currently sell capital intensive products such as equity release mortgages and annuities.
My conclusion is that MNG is far superior to AV. I have a small Av holding in the hope it will be related.....but it keeps disappointing.....when they bid for Pru back in 2006, AV SP was worth £8 and Pru £6.....now £4 and £16 (adding MNG and Pru)....I would not bet against MNG exceeding the SP and MCap of Aviva in 5 years time.

Have to consider this a USD based investment so you have a currency exposure. HCM is not a UK operation so is not participating in the Boris bounce, equally it would have been insulated from the worst of the corbyn policies.....so you have to see it in the round.
£ will likely rise a further 5% if the free trade agreement is secured. However the USD price with all the pipeline news expected in 2020-21 should comfortably beat this.
And holding non£ assets is a good diversification....there could still be a poor outcome to Brexit in which case the usd assets will be supercharging the £ share price

A pleasing bounce today....but that will be taken by some as an exit point slowing the upside.
SP progress likely to be in a series of jumps and consolidations.
Still value to be had here.

Why? You need to say what you are basing your statement on.

BBD you are correct in the numbers. A relatively small part of MNG.
You always hope your investments will be in lucky companies. Luck seems to be in short supply here. The structural problem of illiquid assets backing a daily price is laid bare and there will be regulatory activity but don’t hold your breath it will take a long time.
The whole industry will be affected. Difficult to see what the regulator will do.....if they ban sales to retail customers where do you stop (commodities, small cos) and what do you do about multi asset funds where these assets exist in lower concentrations. More likely to have monthly or quarterly settlement dates for illiquid funds. There may be more problems for those that recommend these types of fund and have not spelt out the risks to their clients.
I doubt the mis-selling lawyers will get too far with the manufacturers.

You are correct, I would prefer the slide to be entirely RMB or USD rather than mixed....

That seems quite a steep discount....so the cycle cost is now about 1200 usd and the max sales are 3500 usd per patient.
What share do we think Elunate will get of the 55k new pts?
20% market share would be 11k pts 38m usd gross sales.
80% 150m usd
Will have to see how effective Lilly is at pushing stirvaga out of the market.