Member Info for Jatw

Press are going for HL and SJP.
Margin is too high.....and looks like exploitative. Of consumers so expect continued adverse coverage and then political pressure on regulators to act...plenty of room for competitors to under cut and take business if they are perceived as ripping off customers.

Regulatory action will come on pension transfers and drawdown And duty of care to investors...HL positions itself as largely execution only. Historically this has been seen as lower risk than advised business but if interpretations of regulatory principles lead to change this could really impact HL hard....compensation for mismanaging they recommended fund list......compensation for taking too much risk.....
HL has made a rich living attacking advised business - they lobbied hard for pensions deregulation....there will be little sympathy for them in the industry if it comes back to bite them.

Added to holding yesterday. the pipeline has been positive for a while and the BOA coverage is another indicator of the value that can be generated by that research.
Not sure the impact the NRDL decision Will have when it comes. I am sure the market is expecting Elunate to be included.....they will be watching for the size of discount for that and other drugs (eg AZN is a key partner where Savo may well be sold alongside as a combination therapy). On the basis that there are local reimbursement lists already in place the difference may not be too much of a shock and increased volumes offset lower margins. The next Edison and trinity updates will be interesting in this regard - hopefully they will not change their models too much.

Thanks Davey, I was uncertain who will distribute the product.
Looks like AZN have a successful oncology distribution and HCM is building one.....some collaboration would appear sensible for both parties to maximise sales and keep costs down.

Pru has had a good run this week.
MNG looks underpriced.......I expect it to go to 250 before resistance sets in....so probably 10% gain is more likely for MNG than PRU at this point in time......in the long run Pru should outrun MNG.

AZN reported an increase of 40% in Q3 to 1.2bn usd.
They expect the NRDL will bring pricing pressures for 2020.

AZN has constructed an effective distribution platform which may help Savo when it is approved. I am not sure how the contract works in China - but I am sure azn could help market for a fee if needed.

Must be a way of using excess capital in the insurance company so the company does not have to carry part of the pension scheme.
Would be an interesting debate about conflicts of interest.

I think I will plan to get GSK in the run up to their split. If it seems the market can’t judge the splits there would seem to be some low risk percentage point gains to be had.

BBD your number is the ordinary divi....there is a special divi expected I can’t recall the precise amount but it was in the order of 3-4p. I think That is how DB got to a larger value for yield.

Re debts levels mentioned by others this was covered extensively at the recent analyst presentation. The debt is all long dated and some have call options (first was 2023 from memory). The CFO said that the debt was covered (interest and principal) by the expected run off of the annuity book. At present They intend to use the capital released from annuities to pay down the debt.
The flip side of putting debt into MNG is that PRU has increased firepower to either drive M&A or to pay a higher than natural dividend.

Press reports: JPM sold 57m shares at 205p for ADS holders. That largely accounts for yesterday’s fall.
DB value MNG at 300p noting the current high yield gives a 17% Dividend return in next 18m at current levels.

Comparative yields
STJ 4.6
LGEN 6.1
Av 7.1
SLA 7.7
To get into this range requires a 10-15% uplift in the SP.....no such thing as a sure thing but this looks undervalued at present

Positive momentum over in the US is less apparent in UK as the £ strengthens.
This is a $ driven share so we have to take the exchange rate ups and downs in our stride.

First broker report I have seen sets a target of 335p. Which is a long way up from here.
Volume has been much higher today than average Pru volumes.....and a multiple of SLA that is similarly valued.
Price has been remarkably stable given the sell bias reported. Expect large volumes for a while and more volatility

I was remarking that the market got it a little bit wrong last week.
If they were efficient then the difference between Friday and Monday would not be 6%. The difference would have been more like the 2% gains shown by some other asset managers.
and the re-rating would be in the price.
It will take time for the market to assess both shares....
Personally I feel MNG is starting at a low price......the yield is quite high....would you rather hold MNG AV LGEN SLA? They are all high yield alternatives. A lack of track record as a listed entity may hold it back for a little.
Pru looks more like AIA.....it is priced for growth in Asia...low dividend plus sp growth.

So much for efficient markets...additional 60p added today.

Quite a low start @ MNG just over 5bn mcap
The press stories of 7-9bn was maybe enterprise value with 3bn debt.

It was expected to be MNG, possibly MNG.L

What will Pru now do with Jackson? Can’t see the logic of keeping US and Asia together. Lead regulator will be HK rather than UK or US. Head office will inevitably move eastward.

The journal publication is available through the company website and makes interesting reading.
This study has taken 4 years and tested a number of combinations.
The Savo+taxotere arm was stopped because it was clearly inferior to the Savo only arm.
Savo appears to get responses in MET patients. I look forward to the next pipeline update and a statement about how AZN and HCM will proceed with Savolitinib development and commercialisation. It is a long time in coming.

Now for the registration study.....given the indicated poor prognosis for gastric cancer patients, it should be relatively short duration study...the difficulty being finding the 3.5% of cases that are relevant.
If all goes well it could be ready for approval in 2021.

the EGM is tomorrow and the demerger will be confirmed
MNG will be listed next Monday - that will be a difficult day....MNG may be more volatile than the market as it is launching amid progression of the brexit shambles.....