Member Info for Jatw

It’s a bit chicken and egg. Low volumes and large spreads go together.
I do find the actual trade price offered moves towards the ADS price when both markets are open.
They need Use the UK main board, but I expect they will quit London if/when they list in HK.

PRU and MNG are both plays on big demographic trends that are increasing the value of the small % fees charged to customers.
Providing they avoid a major financial error and keep up with competitors they should do well.

The MNG prospectus and the analyst presentations provide a good overview, if a bit generic in places. (See the company websites)

MNG analyst meeting was interesting today......questions about dividend policy, capital generation and debt levels in particular.....trying to test how secure/variable the payouts may be.
Their views may induce some volatility....hopefully they will see the SOTP is greater than the current SP.

Don’t get too excited....£100m is only....3.85p per share....someone has got their sums wrong.

Divide by 100...£100m is only....3.85p per share

it is no surprise that 2014 onwards has coincided with additional capital rules for GLobally systemic insurers and solvency II.....
Significant change eg pensions freedoms technological change.........
The split announced today will change prudential plc regulator to HK and free it of SII
MnG will be free to invest in its business while continuing to move to an investment and capital lite business model.
Roll on 21/10

FY results on Friday....looking for confirmation of trading position improvements post ye.

SP seems to be at odds with valuation estimates and progress.
What do we know?
More funding will be required but not for a while.
The controlling shareholder wants to reduce its holding not by selling more, but by not investing more in future funding rounds.
MS may still be selling down its holding acquired in the recent placing....this will meet new demand for a while.
Elunate income is dependent on a price negotiation led by Eli Lilly
There will be more news on the pipeline this year and next that should support value creation.

I think the funding issue (which should not be a big issue) is holding the SP back. It may take to the end of 2020 to have full clarity over future funding, but this and pipeline developments will eventually lead to a narrowing of the valuation gap.

Regular additions is the way to go

90 day lock up associated with the secondary listing is coming to a close.
Buyers possibly waiting for some direction from CKHH/HHH and HCM about funding plans and further sales. Director buys would be positive.

.historically HCM has needed positive news to move forward
A good Viktory or Savannah result is what is needed.

Well aviva has put its Asian operations on the block....that would surely be of interest to Pru.

But the rest of aviva would not be.....M&G is being demerged from PRU, there is no reason for either M&G or PRU to want to undo the effect of demerger by tying up with Aviva.

I thought CH gave a good account of the company and its progress.
Interesting that he now says Elunate is a relatively expensive product and expects a significant discount for NDRL...... it seems Elunate is on the list for negotiation although timing is likely to be delayed into November.
Pleasing comments on Surufatinib and Savolitinib progress.
Well Worth listening to again when it is available on the company website

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/merck-kgaa-lung-cancer-drug-080023864.html

According to this article, there are drugs targeting MET Exon14 skipping mutation from Merck and Pfizer and these have both been given Breakthrough therapy designation by FDA.
stiff competition for Savo

IMO there is Next to no chance of a tie up between MG and Aviva UK.
Why would you want to add general insurance cyclicality and difficulty in merging life operations and merging an underperforming aviva investors. No thank you.

Whether Prudential would want to bulk up Asia operations by purchasing assets of aviva in Asia is another matter.

Brokers are usually extrapolating a recent trend to generate interest.....they formed their views of 300+ when the shares were 270-290 and have not really changed.....5ose that now say 200 are extrapolating the fall.....what is more interesting is what they use to justify why they are higher/lower than the market.
Working for a FTSE100 company, it is interesting /comical to see some of their comments and thoughts. Some clearly just want a good strap line....and why let the truth get in the way of a good story.

Quilter took over two months from prospectus to listing, but that did include new shares. is there a minimum time between publication of a prospectus and listing?

So it turns out it is mostly about HK

I too think HCM will be a multiple of the current price in a few years.
Currently valued at under $3bn, the current pipeline can take this to 6-10bn
20bn is a bit of a stretch but not impossible, however HCM will need to develop a blockbuster first line treatment rather than picking up the patients that have already had one or two treatments....and that sadly may not last very long.
The company will be able to develop its own treatments....AZNs Japanese deal shows that a novel blockbuster treatment can be worth many billions in advance payments.
Let’s hope the discovery platform keeps finding new candidates for commercial development.

davey, the US is the dominant market setting the price.....hence I think US Sino relations are most important for sentiment towards a foreign company.

Company specific events- Funding strategy is probably the most important here....a 5-10% dilution was planned and may still be coming if a fund raise is needed.....The HK listing would have solved this in one hit....a second hit is still lurking.....this may deter demand until the funding path is clearer. NDRL helps as royalties will increase, but inclusion is probably assumed to be in the price and there is a downside risk from being excluded.

My suggested path to a higher SP
NDRL inclusion (expected, but an asymmetric risk of failure. Hard to see why the Chinese authorities would not include the first locally developed cancer drug.......but the negotiation of the price is with Lilly of the USA so there is a politic risk of delay)
Clarity over funding, including HK listing (FY results March 20)
Positive pipeline news (incl no breakthrough therapy by competitors). Getting approval for any drug from FDA will be a major win in the credibility of HCM in US markets.

And a change in US-sino trade relations
Trading firms will seek downside advantage from the funding requirements. Long investors should be buying while there is an overhang of stock. Who knows where the balance will be between these forces.....I think we can say that CKHH and the underwriters underestimated how hard the market would be on them which should mean they are extra careful with any future share sales.

I expect upwards progress will resume once some of these headwinds reduce.

Today’s announcement of a US trial for HMPL-689 is creating a renewed focus on the pipeline.
This is still an early stage test for this product....but it should help to bring investors back to the main story of innovation and building a significant bio pharma organisation.
SP progress to follow......it has been pleasing that there has been steady progress recently. Once past the recent offer price we can get back to a more realistic valuation.

We must not be too fixated on individual markets in Asia. It is a set of markets that have their ups and downs and you have to play the long term demographics..Pru has built scale operations where it is present....those markets are expanding creating increasingly wealthy customers who need to pay for health insurance and then can save for their later years. Pru among others is well placed to capture this opportunity.....add when you can.