Member Info for Jatw

History might tell you otherwise as the SP has been 12-16 for a long long time.....24 is adding nearly 40bn in value which is not very likely....SP will only rise when it looks likely the divi can be raised safely and steadily.

Thanks DAvey, I had not seen any market size for this indication...I agree a second Phase iii success with NDA to follow will generate increased confidence. The targets in the recent updates are quite clear... they just need to have a run of positive news to get the market back into a favourable view. the market was way too enthusiastic and reacted badly to what was a mild disappointment in the portfolio. Go back to 2016 and this SP is a very respectable value (more than double).

Trinity delta previously suggested the surufatinib programme was worth 13% of their SOTP valuation (£475m).
This success, albeit in a small market will likely feed into a number of increased likelihood’s of success when they do their recalculation.

The H1 update will be interesting reading as will the offer when it comes....

Good news indeed......just what is needed ahead of the fund raise.

Looking forward to see what the analysts believe the revenue and value enhancement is worth....

....they will of course continue to measure the cohort enrolled so they can create a new benchmark for this set of patients....the longer and better the evidence trail the harder it is to create a successor...

I think this also indicates the global offering may be accelerated a precede the HY results.
I am not familiar with HK rules, esp the requirements implemented last year for Bio cos. This additional 3m disclosure may be routine for any company preparing for listing.
In the UK I would expect a recent (6m) and audited balance sheet prior to a listing which would lead to a September offer.....maybe it will be late June. Having announced it they need to get on with it.

Yep...no sign of a reduction in the spread...that may come with the HK listing helping to narrow the time the share is not traded or only in low volume London....
The buy price is usually pretty consistent with the US value...but the sell seems to be poor value. Never having sold I don’t know whether the actual trade would be priced higher.
I would like to see more volume in London....but they should move to the main board and get more institutions on board.

Per the news flow chart on recent presentations there should be an early ph3 readout on surufatinib shortly. A second success will do wonders for confidence in the pipeline.
My guess would be that this news plus HY numbers and the global offer will be quite close together. Possibly same day for HY results and the offer.....or the offer may wait for CKHH HY numbers which historically have been a week or two after HCM.

This decline has been going on for too long....well over a decade.....Aviva was 830 and Pru 680 when aviva abandoned takeover of the Pru in 2006. If this continues, the aviva will soon be worth less than M&GPrudential.

I am increasingly of the view that the sales teams of HCM will prove to be a key value driver in China delivering HCM and combination therapies. I hope they will be adding more third party oncology and immunology products to their portfolio in anticipation of HCM bring more treatments to market.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2019/imfinzi-is-the-only-immunotherapy-to-demonstrate-overall-survival-at-three-years-in-unresectable-stage-iii-non-small-cell-lung-cancer02062019.html

AZ issued this release post ASCO. An interesting read about how they are collaborating to broaden the market for their core products.

Collaboration seems to be a consequence of being able to test and classify why drugs work or are resisted. It is increasingly hard to beat the emerging standard of care (as HCM discovered last year with the trial they halted) so it makes sense to target groups of patients where the SOC is known to fail or work partially. There is an established distribution route for an enhanced proposition now selling multiple drugs for a subset of patients.

http://abstracts.asco.org/239/AbstView_239_256011.html

If the link does not work put ASCO 2019 abstract 9119 in your browser.

Sorry to have to tell you, but the IHT exemption was also lost with the NASDAQ listing.

IHT exemption is still possible within a pension plan, but you have to die before age 75 for a tax free inheritance.

From 28 April 2014, Stamp Duty and the Stamp Duty Reserve Tax (SDRT) will no longer be chargeable on transactions in securities admitted to trading on a recognised growth market provided they are not also listed on a recognised stock exchange.

HCM is listed on Nasdaq so stamp duty applies..

A second feature of the presentation that has been emphasised more recently is the existing sales organisation in China...it is this that will make the Commercialisation of any drug successful.

I suspect when they have a US/EU approval, they will need to partner the sales as building the sales infrastructure will take time and resource that may be better spent elsewhere...being able to offer Chinese distribution on a reciprocal basis should be a win win..

What I like about this presentation is that it demonstrates the range of products under development and highlights future areas of investigation. It is a sign of maturity that they are also confident enough to include references to competitors. The key risk for the innovation platform is that it takes such a long time to develop a drug that a new standard may emerge from a competitor that means the effort has to be written off as it will not be a commercial success.

Cant see a company related reason for this fall yesterday. It may emerge that a long term holder has traded out before the next place or shorts are trying to force the price down ahead of that placing....but this is risky business as pipeline news could lead to a positive move up.
I am not selling because of anticipated news flow in H1 and will next buy around the placing.
Yesterday’s fall is certainly the best entry point for a while.....

For anyone who is interested, I suggest plotting Pru and AIA. There is a strong correlation between 2010-2016 then a strong divergence which does not seem to be particularly justified.....more recently there is a better correlation.

AIA has returned approx 15% SP growth plus divi for the last 9 years bc of Asian growth.

I expect strong returns from Pru post demerger as Asia will grow rapidly. Why would you keep US and Asia together having unhooked the UK units?

Not a troll but I like to see comment that adds to the debate

I see no value in your comment when this is a young growth stock.....any company like this will have a high PE ratio and can be called expensive.....

I assume because you think this is expensive you have no stake.....if you said why you thought it expensive/risky that would be valuable insight.

The AGM resolutions give the Directors powers to allot high % of shares.....CKHH will approve, so there is no chance of restricting these proposed powers. However previous dilutions have not been large, and with CKHH now reducing its holding, it is unlikely to want much dilution, although it usually buys into the placing to maintain its %.

If you believe in a positive growth story, buy at the time of the placing as that will likely create a dip.

Relieved there were no nasty surprises......18th is hardly early April which was promised for the acs.
Still a young company....plenty of room to grow which should drop through to the bottom line quickly.

Is kezzman a troll.

I doubt the AIM listing will survive long term which is a pity as it potentially raises costs for UK holders.
I would prefer a move to the main board which will also increase available investors.....but with the parent listed in HK and US it shows it is not necessary and could be an easy cost saving.

I will need to find a new platform if that happens.

Saving up to buy around the placing.