Member Info for Jatw

There was a broker note that suggested M&G Prudential was worth £2.45 /shr (about 4.5bn)....they were suggesting that growth in Asia meant that ina year, prudential holders would not notice the split.

Clearly when the split happens, any shareholders will have two investments and their combined value should equate to the previous Pru share price (no gain/loss)

I would expect the valuation of M&GPrudential to rise as the roadshows to showcase the business take place.

The research Davey has posted and the company analysis showed net cash turning negative in 2021. HCM also talks about expanding the pipeline and achieving US and EU approvals. This is undoubtedly a good idea as there will be a limited window for any drug to be the best but will cost more in the short term...in these circumstances it is better to get cash in early and be fully funded even if that means dilution of shareholders than to risk a funding problem.

HCM is still a small pharma withous meaningful profits to support debt funding, so equity issue can be expected every couple of years until self sustainability is achieved.

Amones, we need to see what will emerge, but there is a placing of new shares and a part sale by CKHH.

Assuming there is a 10% issue by placing (watch the AGM resolutions to see what powers the board has, but 10% is often a limit before rights have to be applied, then CKHH will need to sell about a tenth of their holding to go below 50% ownership (stated target so they can investment account not consolidate HCM)... They can foresee increase in valuation while the company is loss making....so this treatment will take valuation gains straight to their bottom line. The alternative would reduce profits even though they are gaining value.....crazy world of accounting.

I would also like to see HCM move from AIM to the main board. It would be a valuable addition to the FT250 and in time a ftse100 stock. Maybe increased free float and liquidity will enable this move.

Listing in HK for a Chinese Pharma makes excellent sense and should create new investors, although there could be an effective 20% sale of shares to digest.
We can expect MMs t drive the price down ahead f pricing...assuming not a rights issue, that is probably the best time there buy as it may rise post placing.

I would be inclined to HSBC over walletinvestor.....hsbc will have put some brain power into their analysis, whereas wallyinvestor is just extrapolating a chart.....
One is for an investor, the other describes a long term investment as a year.....

Strange that 1bn is to pay down a low interest rate paying bond.....surely you would expect to roll that over. Unless the credit agency says no more debt......in which case why have they just paid out a dividend of nearly half the amount raised. Sounds like Robbing Peter to pay Paul which is worrysome.

Davey, any view on what AZN deal for one drug partnership at upto 7bn USD says re prospects for Savolitinib?
Does it mean more combos will be available

Is that the difference in value between 1st line treatments and second/third lines of treatment.

Two progress reports on savo alone and savo +tagrisso expected.

It would be interesting to know how the model will works, presumably there are high % built in for potential failure to realise the asset or its full potential.
I am looking forward to realising some of that upside as news emerges....for now the shares are valued at a discount relative to what are highly speculative estimates.....time to add but expect step changes up and down with news.

Delivered.....a little disappointed with the enforced dilution without rights. Hopefully not too much a discount / heavy fees so that the co actually gets the money it wants.
Ev 185p after dilution
So still scope for some upside....but need to wait for 2022! For an increase in own funds.....so maybe not much.

Overall a positive presentation.....getting a stronger story on the Savoir study and the Lilly deal and the funding for 2-3 years already in place
Next research news is only 3 weeks away.....let’s hope it is of the winning variety because this will start to motor again once there a series of good news stories emerges.

BTW a I think we should acknowledge the lifetime work of Mr Christian Hogg. He has built this company from scratch, there are very few like him who have the vision, dedication and energy to see it through. The next few years may well see this company make the difference between life and death for hundreds of thousands of people impacting millions of lives. That is a prize much bigger than any monetary rewards.

Davey

Waiting to hear what is said in the presentation. Slides are interesting and full of detail.
Hopefully Mr Hogg will explain.....I don’t think he will say materially ahead....greater clarity and visibility over the exciting development of the company....he was previously burned by the comments about breakthrough therapy and having to cancel the study....so I expect cautious optimism.

Results not that great.....but driven by poor economics in RSA, ZIM, NIG.....
Interesting slide is the equity valuation of 25R per share..or 135p.....life cos often have a 20+ discount to that in the market....so unlikely to see a bounce here until Macro economics turn positive

Good to see visibility of the expected news flow in 2019....as this is where significant value will come from.
Cash burn rates sustainable and resourced for atleast 2 years so no worries about dilution.

I expect more detail on elunate and the Lilly deal in the presentation.....but acceleration of sales will not really be apparent until HY and then end 19.

This is a long term play....I expect I will be buying more this year.

Results were in line with consensus according to the HL look forward yesterday.
But EPS grew less than HY target of 10%.
Good stock for dividend income....expect divi to grow..although SP has had a good run and probably will go sideways for a while now.

Results coming up soon......2018 should see further improvement in profitability and merger benefits.
Looking for further clarity on how the Board will address any capital issues arising from the PRA equity release valuation work. If no equity raise is needed, then the SP should move on up with 120-130 possible in the short term.

Silly high or silly low?

Not long to the FY 18 numbers now.

I am hoping to see elunate sales included for the first time and paying patient numbers, perhaps a Jan Feb update with the results.

Also interested in cash flow projections given changes to Lilly agreement announced in December.

Research progress is interesting from a news perspective but SP reaction seems to be severe if not positive......hope they learn from the Dec announcements....

I agree this looks like a good company with an excellent management team......I have tracked this for 3 results and bought in a couple of weeks ago as growth looks to be there as promised......I will probably add small amounts ahead of future results.....the ceo has previously built and sold a company so i feel stewardship is in good hands. It is a v small cap so will not have much coverage so could be undervalued. This may potter on for a number of years before the founders want out but I expect a decent return in 5-10 years.