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Any problems should be limited to the company that owns the fund this policy is written in. Given the way the regulators operate across EU and the globe it is inconceivable that the PRA would not require aviva to make provisions.
Conclusion probably not going to be an existential issue

A really detailed analysis. V interesting IP assessment of each pipeline candidate, indications with potential sales, valuation and probability of success. Clearly there are huge assumptions i the valuation, but this analysis shows where the current perceived value drivers lie.
Significantly there are many indications that could add several hundred million dollars to the SOTP analysis. There remains a lot of upside to be captured in the medium to long term....

The market reaction to the placing will likely be seen as a major buying opportunity in the future.

Prudential has acquired a 5.1% stake...from the looks of it for UK based customer funds.
M&GPrudential has a value bias to its investing, so a good long term holder.

Not long to wait. Things to look for:
Elunate sales.....waiting to be added to the reimbursement list...still early days.
Update on NDA for surufatinib
Update on seroquel dispute/ compensation
Other pipeline news

Thanks Miti nice to be appreciated.

Mr Market is fickle and will get another bite at the SP when the fund raise comes.....i Intend to buy post fund raising. In the meantime I will wait for news in the HY results and on the pipeline which should have another surufatinib result later this year and also progress with savolitinib.

CKHH and HHH need to have better bankers because they got the market very wrong on this sale.

They surprised the market by separating it from the HKSE listing and also increased the size of the offer on the day......surely they would have achieved a better price without these actions.

Supply and demand is an odd thing......imagine if instead of selling a minority stake HHH put its whole stake up for sale...no one seems to want to be a minor partner but there would probably be a premium for a controlling stake

the value here is in the medium to long term...having HHH as a shareholder gives stability and derisks the future of the company, it is unlikely to disappear like many Bio techs but that comes at the cost of a dominant shareholder. I have said on here before that CKHH do trade their assets when an attractive offer comes along or they will be patient investors. It may take 5 years before the true value of this company becomes clear. If the drugs work, then we will see this event as a blip.

MS will have to buy at 24 less underwriting costs that they charge HHH, so they may still make a turn selling at 22. MS will not want to hang onto the stock.....so if there is a real lack of demand which might also be behind the story of deferring the HK listing then there is a real valuation issue here. Hence the HY numbers, progress with Elunate sales and the second NDA are critical for the fund raise....when it comes. Although maybe they don’t need it if they can raise some debt.

Strange to issue an RNS with 8.5m placing and then place 12m. Probably says more about CKHH and their need for cash or a higher valuation on their BS for ChiMed than it does about the prospects for HCM. Nevertheless a surprise for the market to digest. I would also hazard a guess that the placing of new shares will also need a 15-20% discount to the prevailing price over the past few weeks, so hopefully this represents an assessment of the issue price. Rather than that being much lower from here.
It will be interesting to see if someone has taken the bulk of the shares and has a disclosable position.

This is not a surprise trade......as t has been flagged for several weeks.
Hence it should be priced in....as should the fund raise which is now atleast 3 months away.

Buy now, sell in mid sept ahead of the next surprise issue of equity may be a profitable trade......I think I prefer to add now and add again after the raise.

No point trading until the US market has made up its mind. MArket makers will cover themselves with extra margin today...

Wrote the previous post before I saw the ads post trading price was down 11%
....almost inevitable with a large block of shares to be sold....
Not a day to be selling,,,,possibly a good day to buy...

Analyst presentation scheduled for wed 3 July.

May get some valuation of the new company emerging shortly

Analyst presentation scheduled for wed 3 July.

May get some valuation of the new company emerging shortly

This looks like the full CKHH secondary sale....it will test the market appetite which has been strong recently, so I think we will see a pull back today

..CKHH will not be able to deconsolidate HCM until the fund raise has taken place so there will still be pressure for this from the main shareholder.

Possibly a smart move as the new buyers will have to price in a future dilution and that will allow the new shares to be more accurately priced

Thanks for sharing this.....patients usually want the best treatment, so tariffs don’t really cause substitution with locally produced drugs hence they are ineffective and politically damaging as healthcare cost increases are clearly govt policy.

when HCM comes to market drugs ExChina it will be under the next US president.
If tariffs were high, I am sure there will be options to get the drug manufactured somewhere where no tariffs apply. It may be easier to get FDA approval if the manufacturer is US based so this may be a viable strategy for HCM....let’s see how quickly they can bring product to market before worrying about taxes.

The spread is a result of market makers not wanting to be exposed in a low volume market where they can’t offload in any volume.
Can’t see that changing much even with HK bringing new investors unless there is a move to the main market it will be hard to get the institutions trading to drive volume.

The buy price is always close to the US price.....as long as you don’t want to sell then the spread is not an issue in the UK. When you do want to you can always convert to ADRs where there is a lower spread as low no as you have enough to make the admin worthwhile..until then hold.

Gold5. Look for presentations on the IR page of Pru.co.uk. The big story for 2019 is how demerger of M&GPrudential goes. No timetable has been announced. The HY numbers will be due mid August, expect news then.
Otherwise the SP is highly dependent on broader market issues....it is quite volatile so you can trade it or just accumulate and hold long term.

Quite frankly this is just gossip. The article mentions a June sale.....but the original statements with the initial filing mentioned Q3. The HK market is down a bit because of China US relations, unless it falls rapidly say 10% I would expect the issue to go ahead...

CKHH could get their bankers to do a book build and sell tomorrow....but they won’t.
I expect the offering will be announced following either HCM or CKHH H1 results.

Simple CBB sell and invest elsewhere.