Member Info for Jatw

But the lack of SP movement indicates a lack of belief in any bidder emerging.

£14 is into knock out bid territory. Hard for the Board to refuse to consider a bid at such a level.
10-11 is too cheap

Paid 1% less than the US closing price which I consider a decent deal on AIM.
When US opens the UK price to sell generally rises towards the US price.

Added a few 100 shares this morning in anticipation of a decent trading update and speculative cover on a bid, although I consider this a bonus if it happens.

Taken my own advice and added a couple of k shares below 400.

I am sure the “partners” have been flexible and have been meeting clients on video and using electronic signatures so they can still bring in the money and furlough their back office to save some costs.
Plus delays on withdrawals and transfers will be inevitable.
fee income is driven by AUM so the market recovery will be a major plus for STJ.

When is an exit charge not an exit charge?
When SJP call it an early investment withdrawal charge.....

I don’t know how they have got away with this for so long.

Today’s new business figures from St James Place have helped all wealth and asset managers today.
MNG being the most over sold has bounced the most. Hopefully MNG half year net customer cash flow and AUM will encourage further recovery in the SP.

Thanks for the acknowledgement. I like to think these boards are for exchanges of points of view ....that is what makes the market. All the better if there is some rationale backing up a buy or sell view.
I have followed CLIN for 4 years and owned shares for slightly less....I like their story of developing drugs, making drugs available in hospitals in countries that are yet to licence drugs and of distribution. I see the attraction of acquiring developed products although I think this is their riskiest business because the stakes are high when you invest a few hundred million for someone else’s cast off there are risks that newer products are much more effective and the product life may be limited.
The balance sheet has 1bn of assets but 800m of these are goodwill and licence fees so they need the acquisitions to work immediately and for the life expected to generate the cash to make a return on the capital invested. Napoleon and Eisenhower liked their generals to be lucky, I like CEOs to be lucky in placing their bets. So far so good.

BTW i am a long term holder and expect to be holding and increasing for many years to come.
The views below are my personal views based on watching how shares behave in response to news and how they can break out into new ranges quite quickly.

It is written in many places by the co and analysts that these are defining times for the company as it proves its products and moves into a commercialisation zone. The shares got ahead of themselves in 2017/18 and have been more realistically priced for the development phase over the last couple of years. The company has kept its promises and made excellent progress, I expect this to be more fully reflected in the share price over the next 12-24 months.

It is surprising the analysts have not updated their valuations following a very positive few weeks that have accelerated potential revenues and a new one off property gain.
I expect they are waiting for HY results before reestimating future cash flows profits and their valuation.
I think we can expect some chunky uplifts that will help sentiment towards the shares. I expect these will be over 400p by the results and then move up by a further 10-15% once the analysts have opined.
These are some of the last opportunities to buy at less than 400p

Last year there was a trading update in the middle of July.
I am expecting an announcement around the same time this year which will set the tone for the next few months. Key items to look for:
Integration and the International platform
Proleukin sales (if disclosed)
Further distribution and licensing deals often included with an update.
EBITDA guidance, cash generation and debt levels.

For the IFRS accounts usually presented in September, level and type of adjustments to achieve operating profit and EBITDA, levels of ITDA to the net profit/EPS and on the balance sheet additions and amortisation of intangibles and current asset/liability movements key to cash generation.

The most important Positive items are higher Proleukin sales and regeneration progress, higher cash generation, lower adjustments to operating profit, significantly higher EPS.
Conversely, decline in Proleukin sales and increased amortisation of licence fee. Higher adjustments to operating profit, limited EPS progress. Higher debt relative to EBITDA and lower cash conversion rates.
Recent RNS have been positive so I expect more positives than negatives and the shares to rise to more than £10.00

And individuals......you must be in this data?

Seaking1
You have a couple of views below....what did you conclude from your due diligence?

Yes.....they each have their own methodology, you just have to work out what they report.

It sounds as if Barclays and Yahoo will show you today’s buy price against yesterday’s sell price this shows up as large gains early in the session as the margin is taken as a gain when it is no such thing and the day to day buy price is the same....a bit misleading to those starting out...
Usually if you are looking at your portfolio it should be valued at the current selling price.

The story is positive, but there are two large acquisitions the US distributor and Proleukin that drive a relatively large pile of debt. The US business had been underperforming and was sold by a PE fund to Clin.....the integration story is playing out ok. The purchase of Proleukin is more of a gamble....Novartis deemed it surplus and it is an older generation of oncology drugs. They are trying to refresh it and the trial with Iovance had a positive update, but there is a risk of a significant loss of value if they can’t find new applications for it and it goes off patent.

So I would summarise that the balance sheet is laden with debt and intangibles however it seems to be generating sufficient cash to allow these assets and liabilities to run off profitably.
I think the debt was the main reason the SP crashed to 400 earlier this year...

In my view quite risky but a decent risk/reward outlook.

If you look on Yahoo they give you the buy price, with a gain from last nights sell price so the daily gains are quite an unreliable set of numbers.
The HL sell price is at least consistent.
I convert the US ADS price to see what is a reasonable AIM price. The spread is much lower in US, the AIM spread is often 5% so what you are quoted and what you might pay can be different by a few % when you try to deal.
So look at several sources to decide if you are getting a fair dealing price.

And the darker arts of actuarial “risk management”

In the strange world of insurance accounting this transaction generates a profit of 1.2bn with other movements of -1.9bn so a loss of 700m which is broadly offset by 500m of new equity.
In Athene books the reinsurance May create a profit, certainly future profits are expected and they have a ninth share in the US operations.
Interesting to see what the analysts make of this deal. It is complex and needs more expertise than I have to work out who it is good for....taking it on trust that Pru management know it is a good deal and not just financial engineering that ultimately weakens the business.

Also known as American depositary shares or ADSs.
HCM trades on Nasdaq 5 shares = 1 ADS. Ticker is HCM.
Volumes much higher on Nasdaq and sets the price for AIM where there is little volume.
Hence if you want to buy look at the US price and see if you can buy on aim for less (it sometimes works that way) but there is a big spread on aim when the US is not trading....the London spread narrows a lot when the US is open and you should get a price close to the US price. For traders I would recommend Nasdaq as you will not beat the spread on aim for a while....for long term holders buy/sell during US hours is best for London shares.