Member Info for Jatw

All looking good.
FY20 slightly ahead of expectations, confident of meeting 2021.
CaRe asset pipeline being built..

Looks like there should be more stability in the SP. understandable volatility in 2018-20 as the smart meters have switched to SMETS 2....but becoming more accepted by consumers and a big push on green energy to come...

Can’t see this on Twitter or DT website.
The SP is now reaching targets set when the SP was in the 40s and low 50s, hence banking a 20-25% gain may be the reason......that may not be a good reason to sell.

Glad to see the previous upward path has resumed

Hi and prussell don’t disagree. Aviva does not know what it exists to do.
Does it provide insurance yes
Does provide life insurance yes
Does it ptovde investments yes
Does it provide pension annuities yes
Does it do this in all its markets - no

When it focuses on UK, Ireland and Canada does it do these things brilliantly and is the market leader - probably not at present but if this is its strategy then the market can assess how well it does in the future.

Ms Blanc will get the chance to show Aviva can work....but it has to be seen to be making progress soon. Divestments provide funds for investment but the top brass need to spend it well.

You have to be careful with such stories.....simply Wall Street takes a data point and writes a narrative without being company specific. You will see the same text repeated if you follow enough companies.
New sales means little to a large asset manager, it is assets under management that is the key metric...as fee income is directly related to AUM.
MNG is also an insurer so its balance sheet can also release cash to support the company and its dividend.
These scary stories were written when markets were down......the recovery in share prices has done wonders for asset manager income and they will all beat forecasts made between March and May.
Read the MNG business updates and their competitors.......yes their prospects are worse than expected this time last year....but they are not catastrophic. DYOR and ignore stockopedia and simply wall st.

Re excess deaths......actuaries are very cautious, they will bank the benefit from any deceased policyholders but are unlikely to change long term assumptions until there is an established trend.

Although insurers carry large annuity books they are a specific subset of the population.....generally wealthier than average, and therefore healthier....their mortgage holders will be living at home rather than ina care setting.....
There are many many factors but I doubt COVID will have much of an effect on reserving for liabilities. The greater effect will be lower interest rates, higher admin costs and ont eh asset quality backing the liabilities....most of those will be negative.

Who knows....but it continued today.
My best guess is that a brexit deal is positive as the outlook for UK corporate debt and the housing market is better than ina no deal situation.
Debt backing the annuities business and the no negative guarantee capital requirements on lifetime mortgages are two top financial risks for Just. Personally, I think they have given a lot of data on credit and have low LTVs and have a modest risk exposure. If they had more capital but a lower ROC stake they would look safer and be more highly valued.
As they generate capital this should improve, in my view undervalued.

DB annuity in payment business should not be affected by the sponsoring employer failing because the insurers are paid upfront to take on liabilities of specified annuities in payment.....there is no liability in respect of future pensioners.....they would be passed to the pension protection fund.
This business is usually in two stages a Buy IN for the trustees gives them insurance cover, later down the road there is a buy out where the annuitants become policyholders of the insurer.

Indeed, went on a call and bang it lost 10% in a couple of hours.
May well bounce back on Monday...

It is just luck whether a bid materialises.....they are not all good news as some are defensive moves which often means the SP has under performed. The RNS says the bid is a premium of 50% over recent prices, but is only 8% more than the float price. KKR clearly thought that was sufficient to divest.....but maybe They are heavily invested in either the Blackrock or Goldman funds that are taking over with the Abu Dhabi SWF.

Fantasy takeover deals, SMS 950?

Pru now behaving more like a foreign share.....no reaction to brexit trade deal.....the UK economy does not mean much to its trading in US and Asia.

Davey We can all agree with you on the 5year view.
I for one will be adding a couple of thousand shares in the next ISA year.....while I maintain a heavy weighting in my ISA, I do limit new purchases to 50% of the annual subscription.

After less than a year, the remaining PE owners of calisen have cashed in today.
I never go round to buying them....preferred SMS.
Probably means SMS is undervalued today and also vulnerable if the founder wants to cash out at lower CGT rates......
Think I will hold these for a while and add when I can

And what about BGF
Sold down from 9.5% to 6% in October at well over 90p.and bought back more....
Surprising a seller was participating.....what did they know...FCA should investigate.

But looks like Hambro did not participate and let their holding fall in % terms.

Liked the updated commentary from Edison....they highlight the upcoming launches over 21-23.

I always like to look for positives....and the delay to surufatinib approval means the oncology sales team can really get to grips with Elunate in q4. They can build relationships in hospitals ready for surufatinib to land early next year......

The company continues to make progress.....it is just that the market wants to jump on other more exciting bandwagons at present.

Was that the RNS about Hal Barron’s 38m savings plan.....
I suspect that is his long term contractual bonus rather than his existing money as a new investment.

There will be a lot of competition for the out of pandemic vaccines which is when the cheaper vaccines will come into their own.
For the UK, say 20m vulnerable people, so 40m shots needed for them, add a further 20m where it is more optional, so 80m shots, these volumes potentially annual requirements. IfMRna jabs cost £25 and the OUAZN costs £5, then the cheaper jabs on the optional group costs £200m and saves £800m compared to using the mRNA tech.
This would generate a profit of £80m for the cheaper providers assuming £3 is the cost of production.
This would likely be split between several suppliers, but on a global scale where profits might be $1 per shot, there is a huge target profit pool.

However, the current SP undervalues the new wave of blockbuster drugs and you get whatever vaccine profits emerge for free.
This is a buy for me and if the £/$ rate weakens it is more of a bargain.

And again...
Waiting on regulators is tedious.

I have been looking at the daily price graphs quite regularly over the last few weeks....what I observe is that the price tends to open lower and fall a bit in the morning, before turning positive in the afternoon....I can’t imagine it is US buyers, more the practice of the MMs to start with a wide spread and catch some replanned sales at a lower price.