Member Info for Jatw

Notice of results also confirms Dec trading update.
Minimal comment but could only cover the last few weeks of Dec..

Expecting presentation on 16 mar will give a boost.

The important RNSs seem to be timed increasingly for the US market 7 EST.
If there is CKHH related news that would likely be after the close in HK so anytime from 11 GMT.

A tie up between AV and LGEN would result in a lot of hats being eaten. Highly unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

There is limited mileage in global financial groups anymore. Each regulator wants local capital.
What they can exploit is common infrastructure and reuse of technology (Eg pulse) where it can operate in similar environments.
There are plenty of bolt on acquisitions across the Asia and Africa geographies but you have to question why any M&A is needed when the internet delivers customers to your app if you can market it right and have a strong reputation.
Think the fall last week was over done and this is heading back to 1300.

I do wonder how many f these suits actually gain anything for investors or whether they are just sport for the lawyers.
All they do is clog up courts and absorb company lawyer time.
No need to worry until it is the State or federal authorities doing the prosecuting.

The chart is heading in the right direction and the liberum update must help.
Can see this rally heading to 850 but then significant news is needed.
Hard to believe this was over 1000 and under 500 within recent memory.

I think trading at 60-70% of embedded value is where life cos tend to trade. So I am going with a 120-140p range as fair value with a bid at 180-200 if someone wants to take control.
120 this year and 150 next would make me very happy.

The trouble for financials is that profits and solvency are small differences on two large estimated values for assets and liabilities. If Just can raise its SCR to 170-180% it will be much more secure and attractive as an investment proposition.

UBS not really taking much of a position here.....as it is today Pru is valued just over $40bn.
Swapping Jackson for cash is not changing the picture for them.

Perhaps because H2 was much weaker than H1
Sales 13.8 v 16.2
EBITDA 2.5 v3.5
That said, the FY is way beyond 2019 and the company had a great 2020.

Lingering concerns about the China distribution deal remain.....was it the cost of shipping or a payment dispute - we will never know. One thing is sure it is easier to deliver an order than to collect the cash....hope they have export insurance.

But......trading deteriorated in H2. H1 sales were 16.2m. H2 sales would be 13.8m
EBITDA was 3.5in H1, now not less than 2.5m in H2.
Qs about the China distributor deal remain.......if they have had issues already there is a significant risk of a bad debt and disruption to sales finding a new supplier.

It is a bit churlish to focus on the negatives when overall there was a material advance in 2020. However they Board has raised expectations and needs to deliver on its acquisition strategy with shareholders (including mine)

Boards rarely change their minds. Usually they have sounded out major shareholders who probably like the thought of a growth markets operation.
US a management will be chomping at the bit for their own operation. F they weren’t before that will be wanting out of the Pru as soon as possible.

What caused the fall was a possible equity raise, they could run with higher debt for a few years instead.....as long as that does not affect their credit rating that is a possibility. The market does not like surprises.....
Pru very vulnerable to a bid at the moment.

Having worked in a company that recently did the splits, there comes a time when the managements are wanting to go their own way and the best thing to do is to make it happen quickly.
In that case there was a boring cash machine and a growth company. The cash cow has a significant yield. The growth company has rebased its dividend....because the business needs the capital to grow....total shareholder value after 1 year was similar.
We can expect something similar to happen with the pharma and healthcare company going in different directions. I expect the pharma co will have a much lower yield but promise growth. The Healthcare company will carry much of the debt and have to pay that off before it can grow its dividend....
I will be keeping both when the split happens.
Looking forward to weds results and news of separation and how the Tesaro acquisition is now producing cash.
Not expecting any change in the final dividend for 2020.

All parties need to grow up.....and negotiate fair access....this is a health crisis and needs leadership and consideration rather than a me first attitude....they need to maximise production where it is working well and bring the other plants up to speed as quickly as possible.
The legal route has the potential to delay or even stop production....which is in no ones interest.

Best reasonable efforts will be difficult to prosecute when the other suppliers are also not meeting supply demands....Europe (incl UK) are at risk of significant self harm..

The eps and profit metrics are incredibly low and for anyone with a value perspective are a strong buy.
The low sp is driven by capital concerns....IMO the company has met its targets for getting itself into a better shape...it is generating capital and derisking its balance sheet.

This increased resilience will turn the tide and enable the SP to trade at higher multiples.
Even 200p is less than 10x eps.

The road may be bumpy ahead depending on how the govt handles the economy in the next few years. But I have confidence this will deliver value to new and existing shareholders.

A brave buy could be well rewarded.

I wonder why the gains today.
I have looked to see if Lovance has announced anything, but can’t see anything. Maybe just more rumours circulating of advent returning....would not be surprising...
Maybe we will read something in the Sunday press or some RNS next week.

Interesting....and starting with a charitable discount access scheme too.
Hopefully sulanda flies off the pharmacy shelves and brings great benefits to patients.

Berenberg @1700p

Pru is a sitting duck for action to drive the price down to lower the price of new equity.
Likely to bounce once the terms are known and the offer is away.
It is a small raise in the context of Pru so don’t expect preemption rights to apply....hopefully not much discount either from here.

Surely One O f those deals must be about to close?

Clin has had an excellent week gaining in a market that is down 5%.
Augers well for later this year.