Member Info for Jatw

Brightly, the company is improving its capital position and becoming much more investable.
GIFL sales likely to continue to rise, Just has a small part of the DB derisking market and can grow if it has sufficient capital.
Positive to hear of reduced new business strain allowing future growth. Also the property derisking which has been the issue since 2018 and the changes required to capital by PRA.

RBC has raised to 160p, many others still anchored at well below 80, but these results may bring change. I hope to see my break even of 90p quite soon and a move up to 120 during 2021 (assuming pandemic can be reduced in scale by mid year).

A lengthy update with some positives and some caution. Overall seems to suggest a better second half and the market is sending the stock up.
Foscavir still no generic competition.
Proleukin neutral.
Reorganisation will probably hide some under performance in clinical trials but makes the business simpler.
Cash flow and debt seem to be as expected and debt should be falling in H2.

It’s the sort of thing starmer might say if we did not have the variant virus running riot.
There are lots of local politics at play.....look at the delays in US and EU.
If Aus gets a virulent strain they will use AZ. They are a wealthy country with a small population and can easily afford to pay up for more Pfizer BionTech jabs.

IMO I Doubt this will have much effect on AZ.
Whose valuation should depend on its drug pipeline not on whether a not for profit vaccine is promoted in a set of countries or not.

Next news will be the preliminary results in mid March
Some progress possible once it is clearer when the UK will start exiting lockdown....could come around the same time as the results.
Buying early March

AIA and Ping AN both up more than 4% today......why not Pru?

Good post Longodds
An interesting link exists between the two companies.
He chief business officer of INMAGENE was at HutchisonMedPharma when the Lilly and Astra deals were done. He would have known CH and the terms of those deals which must be shaping the contract.

Thanks for the update....you are right, more information will emerge over time.
I think the markets need time to reflect on it....their first reaction is surprise and to mark the shares down so the market makers aren’t caught out buying stock....still early days, but the US market has started turning up and is back over 36USD having nearly touched 35USD at the open.

I can see that HCM may not have capacity to take forward its full discovery pipeline which is a great position to be in, rather than struggling to find new drugs. If the Savo and Elunate agreements are anything to go by, terms can be varied.

Sadly work has impinged on my ability to join the JPM call live.

The updated presentation references bring new IND in 2021 but was before the announcement of the INMAGENE deal. HCM always has the opportunity to surprise....it ploughs its own furrow.

They could also have raised cash in an IPO with the express use being to develop these products.

As noted by seaking, prudential Pru split off M&G, MNG in October 19.
On the day of the split the companies the combined market value increased by around 5%.
The total shareholder return since then has not been too different, but the companies are seen as very different. You choose what you want to be invested in.

I expect the GSK split will be similar, creating two companies with a different focus and we will get one share in each company post split. GSK has a lot of debt and it is likely the consumer healthcare side will be allocated more of this because it has the cash flow to pay it off. The pharma co will have lower debt but will then borrow more to invest in the drug pipeline.
Both are strong companies and that will continue.....unless one or both get taken over there is no reason to suggest there will be substantial gains from demerger in the early days, however their fortunes will diverge as they make their investment decisions. Keep both is my view and don’t be sucked into buying more of one unless you prefer that company’s investment proposition (when that is clearer)

If you are a UK taxpayer, it is generally not worth the extra admin and costs to buy US listed securities if they are also available in £.

Of course if you want stocks not listed in UK, then you have options on spread betting sites, funds and etfs to consider before actually owning foreign stock.

Last year on 16 jan, so expected later this week or early next week.
Hopefully the second half of 2020 was improving.

They could comment on

signs of improvement for clinical studies post COVID eg 2021 order book
Has generic competition for foscavir emerged
New Managed access programmes
Erwinase take on
Proleukin revitalisation

The dirs have made 15% on their late 2020 buys, some more would boost confidence in the future further which is needed if the 800 range is to seen in 2021.

I see a new TU is expected on Thursday.....hope it is more extensive than the last.
Should be a lot to say about new products.

A further thought
Instead of spending several hundred million dollars on progressing these compounds, HCM will potentially gain 230m per product and future royalties. The valuation should capture some of this as the inmagene projects progress.
This is a significant derisking of the HCM a portfolio allowing HCM to focus where it’s current competency lies in oncology.

The implications depend on which part of the pipeline is effectively being sold.
Is it the “newest” four candidates previously set out or new items that have not been acknowledged previously.
Or is this the “large molecule” partnership approach playing out......
Agog for the JPM session today.

Mr Math and Salesale, thank you for picking and extending my thoughts.

I should have mentioned yesterday’s RNS for a priority review of Farxiga in chronic Kidney disease as another example of making real progress in rebuilding the drug pipeline.

The SP is about £8 down since the takeover offer was announced equating to about £10bn of value written off the company.
One possible future of pharma is to seek out complementary treatments that are more than the sum of their parts for patients. Hence building or acquiring additional capabilities can add value even if the M&A price is substantial. I very much doubt that AZ has thrown away £10bn in this acquisition and I look forward to how they are going to exploit the technology they are acquiring to boost the value of both portfolios, it may take 2-3 years for this to be realised, but soriot made a good call expanding oncology and we have to give the Board the time to make this deal work.

In the meantime, picking up stock below £80 is a bargain in my opinion.

Seems to have gone elsewhere with or without a filter applied.

Always happy to see well argued negatives or risks to my investments...but they need to be based on trusted facts.
Although how much one new piece of data should impact a company the size of AZ is debateable. There seems to have been an unrelenting series of successes with new drugs which bodes well for the future. Some big bets appear to be paying off (daiichi collaboration).
While there may not be immediate profits on the vaccine, they have gained capability and will have a new income stream in future years.
So the current SP weakness is all down to the large takeover bid. Having observed several similar bids, the bidder is under pressure until the deal is completed, it then bounces. I expect the SP will rise in Q4.

Oh dear...creates a buying opportunity.

CH is presenting at JPM next week so we can expect an updated presentation to be posted soon.
We know of the sulanda progress, but what else will be revealed on the Savolitinib strategy, the plans for the new manufacturing plant?

If Elunate sales have gone well under new management a trading update would be nice....but I am not expecting any data on this until the FY results.

What are your thoughts (if any) on ITM Power or Ceres Power. They look to be earlier stage Operating in the alternative power area....quite risky and v highly priced.

If this is the driver for the recent depressed SP, then it is rather irrational. Maybe that was the Trump effect.
Anyway it just shows how fickle the markets are and how poorly they can value certain companies.

My advice to any prospective investor is to do your research and be happy to hold through short term periods of low valuation.......add more regularly and accumulate large positions in good companies.

HCM is a buy and hold for me, with regular additions. I think CKHH will ultimately trade their holding and that may force my exit, but if that happens it will be at a good valuation.

A boy band of Mike Wells, Mark Fitzpatrick, James Turner and Nic Nicandrou would be funny to see....who knows it might have happened in a karaoke bar