Member Info for Jatw

Just a Wow from me.
JWOWW

DT22,
Pru said it would sell for cash or make a distribution to shareholders of Jackson shares.
If it sold it would have generated the 3bn for Pru to use in Asia and there would be no Distribution to shareholders.
So you could see this as we give you Jackson shares and you pay us back by subscribing to new equity (or be diluted)

I am not sure this is deserving of the flash crash this morning....but then AIA a was down 5% at the time.

There is always an after market trade where they try to sort out any orders in the market. This results in one large transaction the UT code is used to signify this.

Spotted by management....when the pandemic eases in Southern Africa ther will be a bounce in this SP.....

Hoping for 90p later this year.

Ratbags.....there are a lot of users of LSE who believe the big players in the market are somehow rigging the market against them...algos, hedge funds, market makers all manipulating the prices to make profit. Best to ignore and not engage with their conspiracy theories.
Reality is there is lots of uncertainty and volatility is the result.
I am a long term investor so I like to focus on hard news and company specific news. The most recent news is about cuts in fees which is a long term trend.....i am not sure this is a price war.....but t certainly hits the bottom line.

A small price to pay at HL for the auto reinvestment cost of 1.50. If you reinvest yourself you pay the full dealing fee.

A lull before the storm of FY20 results......good for a few, poor for many.
Fee reductions will hit earnings before any offset of improved volumes....
Increased lock down fears for 21.
Unclear what Biden will do and what effeCt will be on US markets
Many reasons not to buy at the moment.

they really want the Sanofi vaccine - sadly they can only have what is available

German/us. US or UK and a share of production.....

Russia / China are waiting with their vaccine...

Last year 7 Feb with interim results end of March.

SP has taken off in the last two days.....pets still big business in lockdown which means 10-15years of solid veterinary income.
An end of year issue is likely to be vet vacancies and wages....Brexit requires a lot more inspections and certification. Could be a new business for CVSG or a risk of losing staff.

The sp may also be reading as cheap when compared to the potential IPO of a large vet group.

Amazing to see the SP at all time highs.

Interesting days.

Davey
I think you are right to highlight surufatinib approval in the US and EU as the most significant events for the company. It will prove capability and add considerable revenue in 21/22. In turn this will raise confidence in the company to deliver on its promising pipeline.
For this reason I think we will see $40 this year.
Fingers crossed.

Emerging markets set to be a beneficiary?

BravoZulu, you make an interesting point about the way the market is valuing HCM differently to contributors here.
I am not sure your premise for your hypothesis is quite correct. There was a sharp uplift when surufatinib was approved. This news was later than anticipated HCM had expected to start marketing in Q4 so this rally may have been relief that there was no problem. That it is falling back is not unusual after sharp rises.....but I would expect the higher value to return.
In terms of valuing the company, there is low revenue from the drug portfolio at present. The analysts have models to value sales and estimate profits but they could be over or under by quite a lot and we will not know for several years. I do take some comfort that the models produce increasing valuations but this is is part by attributing higher probability of success as the projects progress. I also take comfort from the new investors GA and CPP. Part of the GA investment practice is to identify cos that are about to experience significant uplift in sales.
Given the uncertainty in the analyst models until significant sales are forthcoming it is not surprising that the market trades at a large discount to those values.
CKHH has provided safety for the company, but its cautious and self reliant methods have led to slower progress.

In summary, it appears that long term value is being created. There are trigger events coming that could change market valuations quickly
Second GA investment
Surufatinib US approval
Savo first approval, signs of progress with AZ approach
Elunate US approval
We may get an Asian listing - Which may boost demand in the medium term
It is quite likely that the SP will increase in line with value added in pipeline progress and proven commercial success.
There is an old maxim that it is better to travel than arrive - reality rarely is better than hope and I think the company has been going through this transition which is why the SP has not made progress over the last 2-3 years....., the SP ran way ahead of reality.

There is still a lot of hope in chat of HCM becoming a $20bn company.....but there is increasing evidence that it is justifying a $5bn valuation which should grow as the company follows its plan.

The business interruption insurance is nothing to worry about for LGEN, but I am concerned there will be an outcry about insurers profiting from the pandemic. As one of the largest annuity providers in the UK, there will be a modest benefit from terminating annuities but this will be offset by additional life assurance claims and costs o f operating the business.

A tricky positioning point when the results come out.

Look for the positive value assessment reporting in summer....MNG uses March as the reference date for performance.....which was unfortunate last year as it coincided with market lows.

MNG should report positive returns AND lower charges....should be good for some positive headlines.

That is a minor trading update positive for VLG.
I hope we will get a trading update with news of completion of atleast one of the targets at the end of January.

And again, AIA up 4%.
A valuation gap is emerging with its Asian peers.....will this be justified by the results? Or will the gap close?

Active fund managers need to generate performance first and at a good value for money second to attract new money....
Fee reductions are inevitable as you can’t necessarily beat the market for long and there are cheaper ways of investing coming along.
Will this be sufficient to bring in meaningful amounts of new money? Only time will tell, but it shows MNG needs to bulk up its AUM and cut costs further to maintain profits.
Any margin impact will not be seen until the HY results in august.

Not sure the spread should deter new investors, yes it is large when NY is closed,

But The spread disappears in the afternoon.....don’t sell in the morning.
If you want to take a risk, buy in the morning, the Uk buy price is often 2% less than the closing NY price.

Hellyeah....revenue and profits to very different things...sometime firms use the term interchangeably....the profits from 2bn likely to be 4-6% so 80-120m....and not all of that upfront.

Pausing for breath today with some inevitable profit taking from yesterday’s jump.
Next move up likely to come with the FY results when more detail will be available.