Member Info for Jatw

A lot of these posts may appear as they seem to disappear rather than post.
Yes still here.
The TU encouraged me to turn this into a longer term hold.....q is it going to get to 800?

Still in.
Still looking favourable.

$2 gain today, $6 in the last week.
ADS of $34 is approx £5 a share....well done recent buyers.

Still a bargain in my opinion.

The importance of this analysis is that it is an established sum of the parts bottom up estimate of value in the company and it is UP approx 10% mostly on changing success probabilities.
Further value enhancement will occur when Savolitinib is approved in China and when the three main candidates are approved in the US (2021 for Savo and suru, 2022/3 for Elunate). This is almost guaranteed by the methodology. Most of the pipeline has a very low value associated with it so I do expect the Trinity valuations to keep rising....and dragging the SP along at a 15-20% discount to allow for some of the unknowns embedded in he estimates to remain unrealised.

I hope this will be the year when HCM starts to blossom into the pharma co it wants to be.
The prospects are good with additional sulanda and new Savolitinib approvals anticipated as well as many progressions in the broadening pipeline.
Early access programs can start to generate income streams from the locally proven if not globally approved.
The impact of taking back distribution of Elunate into HCM will also be interesting to see.
Still along way to go for the company....

Looking into the crystal ball in 5 years time we may see:
1-2new drugs approved each year, and new indications for existing products. global reach enabled by approvals in major markets and access programs elsewhere.
A US manufacturing facility needed
Established sales teams in major markets (China, US, EU and UK, Japan).

A valuation of $20bn.

Or CKHH trades its stake at a valuation of 10bn and HCM is merged into a China or US co.

Just in time for 2020...this is a great achievement. While the news was anticipated it is a relief to get the approval. A rejection would have been a big set back.

Should start an upward movement

Sadly I can’t find my share certs and the indemnity replacement fee is close to what they are worth...so these will languish until bust or taken over

Please share your thoughts now you have some of ours

Gold5 You were not alone in thinking 2000p was a likely outcome but we have suffered Trump trying to bully China, China bullying HK, the costs of separation...
AIA has opened up a gap in SP performance....I hope that will close with Pru being updated rather than aia faltering....

Demographics continue to be favourable.....still a buy and hold for me.

Like the sound of the early access program. Sales commencing s before full approval.

My wish list
1 progress divesting Jackson
2 buy out of citic to take control of China businesses using Jackson sale proceeds
3 strong recovery across Asia
4 bolt on M&A, perhaps larger in Africa

SP 1600.

There seems to be momentum building here.
Re new business sales and profits
They have announced some decent bulk annuity deals this HY, more importantly is capital generation and consumption.
If they can add 5points to their solvency cover ratio that will be positive for the SP which is low because of a fear of a solvency situation and a deeply dilutive share raise.

https://www.simon-kucher.com/en-gb/node/6037
I thought this was an interesting status report on the NRDL....the scale of applications is several times previous years. In many countries that would cause administrative delays on drug approval.

I doubt MNG would give much thought to an Aviva bid.....having seen what happened the last time Aviva tried to buy PRU.
QLT might be a better option as it is mostly wealth management.

They were appointed around the time of the non bid. Dumping your Nomad after 6 months is unusual, but we don’t know whether Clin wants a cheaper option or JPM does not want to be a Nomad on Aim for Clin.

CH has not indicated surufatinib is eligible for this years NRDL, but he did say it has been a condition to have an approved before date for each NRDL update. I am not hopeful the Chinese authorities will approve surufatinib this year, we are desperately short of time.

Of equal importance is whether Elunate after one year on the NRDL has to take a price drop to stay on the list. CH did indicate this was likely but modest.

It is at times like these I am glad to hold HCM, it behaves differently to the rest of the market..

Hopefully this will be in the 190-210 range for a while....we could do with a little less excitement in the markets. For some reason, MNG seems more volatile than its peers.

Davey, I Agree, this is a v disappointing end to a year that promised so much. I think this is mainly due to the delay in getting approval for surufatinib.

Still a lot has been achieved
Sales force constructed in China, Elunate largely recaptured from Lilly.
Submission of NDAs and line of sight for US and EU approval of surufatinib.
Funding of $200m from GA and CPP.
New factory build underway.

I really thought HCM was going to stay above 500p following the summer raise and the NDA submissions. Today represents an excellent investment point for the next 5 years which will surely see a transformation in the company as it moves to launch its own drugs and becomes a global pharma.

Hoping there will be quick turn around in early 21 (well April after the next isa subscription).

A cheaper option? Or no defence required anymore?

Sky reports HPS has been acquiring a stake in PIC.
Rothesay underwent a realignment of shareholders a few months ago.
There is interest from PE in pensions and annuities. Whether this could result in a bid is debatable, but there are parties interested in creating value in this sector.
Just is a smallish player that would be better off part of a larger group...not sure what price the board would recommend, but with NAV around 200p it is much much higher than the current SP.