Member Info for Ivyspivey

https://t.co/eltLSOJ5L8?amp=1

Yep sad to see this continue down.
Just reading the attached link again about Mologic.

What is good is it appears to be a rapid test based on serology rather than PCR so this should score well on sensitivity and specificity and especially if it uses whole blood

https://mologic.co.uk/mologic-awarded-c-1-million-by-uk-government-to-develop-rapid-diagnostic-test-for-covid-19/

Hi MP,

Thanks for posting and yes anything that helps clarify the position and helps protect folk is good.
However I do have some reservations about the govt mitigation policy when it seems pretty clear that suppressive actions were needed.

BW

I admit I don’t know.It is patently obvious you don’t know and increasingly likely that Boris does not know.
Fortunately me and you have no influence on the outcome here but equally we don’t need to accept any accountability unlike the PM who chose his position.
He bears a heavy responsibility for the welfare of others.Let us hope he has learnt from his crass attempt of humour re the “Last Gasp” and hope he can get Stanley to simply follow the same rules he wants everyone else to live by.

As you did not attempt to answer any of my questions I assume like me you don’t know.
Boris said yesterday the buck stops here.
It is the job of PMs to lead and weigh up in conjunction with the advisers the best scientific advice from varying views and then decide the path forward.
It might suit Boris to simply find a scapegoat but this is far too important a matter than trying to play politics hence we need to find out the truth based on facts and not opinions.
That is what I am seeking to do but contrast that with your position of blindly believing every thing Boris does is correct and cannot be challenged.

Morning Inanaco
This has nothing to do with politics it is a simple question of did the govt made the correct decision in initially pursuing a policy of mitigation rather than suppression.
A policy which if wrong could have led to the deaths of many people and creat economic disaster.
So all you have to do is answer a few questions which the govt seems reluctant to accede to abd I admit I do not know the answer which is why I am asking the questions.
1,Did the govt base their strategy on modelling if viral pneumonia.
2,Why did they do this in light of knowing that it was possible this was a false premise.
3.On last Friday did they appear to change their stance within hours when the CSO was publicly endorsing mitigation in the afternoon but a few hours later Downing Street was briefing suppression policy’s to the media.
Can things have changed so quickly based on an assessment of new evidence,

As usual any refusal to answer these by bluster or obfuscation will be taken as either you dint know ir dint want to admit the truth

Specific bit and dated Feb 15th

In general, characteristics of patients who died were in line with the MuLBSTA score, an early warning model for predicting mortality in viral pneumonia. Further investigation is needed to explore the applicability of the MuLBSTA score in predicting the risk of mortality in 2019-nCoV infection.

Morning TF interesting take from this Lancet article which specifically says the initial modelling was based on viral pneumonia but that to get a better idea of the impact on Covid 19 deaths that further research and consideration should be given.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

If it is true that the initial govt policy of mitigation rather than suppression was based on modelling of the wrong disease leading to an acceptance of 250k deaths rather than the most recently projected figures of 20-25k and despite huge divergence amongst the scientific community/WHO/ other country’s etc then this is significant

Agree seems like they have nit paid their hosting service hence cancelled and you have to send to webmaster

Today’s RNS is good in that a universal flu Vaccine is a real holy grail for pharma.
Having a “ universal” Vax based on T cell response is much more effective than trying to replicate field strains by predicting which antigens to put into Vax.
As we know any virus especially RNA ones can mutate into something more virulent.
It is this expertise and available facilities that could be very important in race for a Covid 19 Vax.
Some of questions you need to consider to see who may come first.
Responses in pre clinical mice etc.
Clinical studies in humans.
Do you use current Covid 19 L and S strains or one and say use a killed antigen and then an adjuvant.
Do you use Covid alternative strains and see response so you may get efficacy but may be able to use a live or modified antigen.
Do you need to add any more emollients to Vax.
Then you require facilities to carry out this testing and of course the resources or potential investments/ partners to finance this progress.
There is a lot of talk about development of a Covid 19;Vax well it is not as simple as simply putting the Covid 19 antigens into a Vaccine and then saying we will have an effective Vax.
ORPH are in a very good position to play a leading role based on expertise,experience and resources and the development of all of these is so etching already in the bank

Good to see open debate even if we may disagree on d9me if what’s forward but as I said we rely on the experts who are clearly divided so not surprising we are as well.
Interesting listening to the South Korean foreign minister on Andrew Marr of whom one of central planks was extensive testing of population and of course we are going to have to live with these ongoing “ new” pandemics and it is something we have prepared for.
Agree herd immunity is normally provided with by vaccines and that normally has achieved levels of 95% plus.
However as a new virus we cannot be certain imo of creating the ‘ herd immunity” without unacceptable levels of pain when other plans of action are advocated.
Why should we fear a second wave any more than more than the first.We should be better prepared and pick it up much sooner with a better understanding of how to deal with it.
If we allow the Covid 19 to spread amongst the under 60-70 population how do we prevent all the at risk people in that group from suffering serious health consequences.
His do we know the virus will mutate further we already know about the L and S strains so what if another strain develops which has more serious effects on a younger/ healthier population so “ containment” may be a better response.
Probably a moot point as govt is clearly heading in this direction planned and timed or “ forced”.

Of course the economic effects are potentially devastating and that in itself is a big effect on the economic and medical well being of many.

But why say I am not in business.I work for a Commercial pharma Company so you may as well say SCLP is not a business.If you live of your investments it is effecting me much more than you on a day to day basis but I fully recognise the devastating impact this could have on all the vulnerable people in society both economically and heath wise
Again I see that on a daily basis although the prime responsibility of a govt is to protect the safety of its citizens .
Anyway we can of course disagree but think we are all agreed this is probably the greatest challenge of my lifetime and I am an old so and so but still a few years off having to self isolate unless I develop some symptoms.
At times like this it is good to see the silver linings so we won’t need to close the aHouse of Lotds down as the vast bulk will be barred from attending lol

Morning Inanaco,
No one knows who is right or wrong we all have to listen to the “ Expert opinion” and make our own minds up.This is far too important and serious to try and pretend any of us know the answer and it is a very fluid situation.
Please do not cherry pick from my link as it is clear that the tenor of the article in no way reflects supports your argument about “ herd immunity”.

“Within the immunology community, we have significant questions about this strategy. The ultimate aim of herd immunity is to stop disease spread and protect the most vulnerable in society. However, this strategy only works to reduce serious disease if, when building that immunity, vulnerable individuals are protected from becoming ill, for example through social distancing. If not, the consequences could be severe.”

Stay safe all and although we may take different views I am sure in the end we will get through this.

See British Institute of Immunology has had its say as well

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-sars-cov-2-outbreak-response

Evening TF,
Me and you will get some stick for the temerity to post on here but to support Bermuda in his earlier post and yes I will be accused of being biased but please add the other 229 scientists who Inthink know better than most of us non scientists.

https://t.co/hNOhv9gEj9?amp=1

Inanaco I used the word “ prevent” in a general sense not as part of a a formalised Covid 19 Plan.
Please treat this matter seriously rather than trying to score cheap points by focusing on specific words which you quote out of context and then refer to my supposed “ reading habits” .
For the record I have read the Guardian about once in 40 years

TF et al.
There are obviously 2 differing camps within the scientific community about how best to prevent the spread of Covid 19 at least within the U.K. whereas the ROW seems fairly united and it does seem as if the UK govt has rapidly changed its position and brought forward these more drastic social distancing measures to prevent and delay further spread.We rely on these experts to get these decisions right as never forget the immense pain this will lead to in many families up and down the land if they are pursuing any other policy than what us in the best interests of the people.
This includes any political ,economic or especially any personal motivations of what people are saying or doing.
My last comment on the subject but be very aware of the suffering that may be caused by spouting off uninformed opinions for the simple reason of wanting to be heard

There are some suggestions that this test may be the Mologic one that AVCT has an agreement with to use its affirmed technology.

https://www.channel4.com/news/rapid-coronavirus-testing-kit-developed-slashing-results-time-for-covid-19-diagnosis

Anyone have more info on this?

Looed many thanks for your contribution and great that as you have better access to what us going in in Georgia you keep on feeding us info.
Stay safe and have a good journey home

https://ge.usembassy.gov/ambassador-degnans-remarks-to-media-per-meeting-with-minister-of-finance-march-12/

Good luck Mapp you may be able to afford a trip on the Whitby Love boat skippered by Captain Crab if you can’t manage a big liner.
My wife will want to send me on a cruise but of the Missile variety if this dies bit come good ha ha