Member Info for Ivyspivey

Morning Violin Dog,
As you say frightening stats and reinforces need for all of us to do our best to protect ourselves as number of cases rises and pressure on ICU beds increases.
We all need to unite in playing our part to gear up our preparedness but we are fast approaching the critical lag period where the imbalance between supply and demand of critical NHS resources and the ill patients is at its greatest.
GLA and take care

Could be worse I am remote working and have to spend all day with the wife.
Only joking

Yep Ray I don’t know about structure of SK society but that age group will be the socially active ones and represent majority of carriers.

Hi FG,
We will come through this but I just get astounded by the number of folk who either don’t understand or want to come to terms with the threat here.
Just look at the measures being taken to get a sense of the gravity of situation and anyone who thinks this will be over in 3 months simply does not understand anything about Covid 19.
ATB

Still not convinced.

See Chart 5 and comment below.

https://t.co/0hNz0yIzaw?amp=1

Evening Ray.ayou May find this useful re South Korea re Age distribution of carriers.

#CoronaVirus confirmed cases in S.Korea by ages (Mar 21)
Over 80s : 381(4.33%)
70-79 : 589(6.69%)
60-69 : 1,118(12.71%)
50-59 : 1,672(19.00%)
40-49 : 1,203(13.67%)
30-39 : 900(10.23%)
20-29 : 2,380(27.05%)
10-19 : 457(5.19%)
0-9 : 99(1.13%)
Total : 8,799

Totally support your view on Covid 19.

If anyone wants to get a feel for how big this threat is please read the Imperial College Report.This was the evidence from Italy that changed the UK policy from mitigation to suppression.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Trojan et al.Try not to be as long before I hook back in but do enjoy your banter.
I work on the Vet side but lot of experience of Viral Vax working for Merck,Sanofi etc but no problems sleeping unless working from home means I have to keep one eye open in case wife attacks me.
Take care all

Plenty of Vax candidates and approaches but my timeline would be 12 months at earliest but hope you are right.
As this is a new virus with no immunity this will present challenges for Vax development but we are learning more and more as time goes on.

This Imperial College report incorporating Italy experience really seemed to focus the minds of UK and US re suppression measures.Neil Ferguson who produced report has tested positive.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Knowing it’s one of your mums favourites makes me feel very old lol?
Expecting another big drop as people realise how big a challenge this is ad how long it is likely to take to get it under control.
Unless some of the treatments like the anti viral/ malaria/COPD drugs prove effective to ease pressure on the NHS then I think we are in for a long period of suppression, relieved by a bit if mitigation,back to suppression until we get an effective Vaccine.
My employer put global restrictions in at a very early stage and although the advice they issued at first seemed draconian to us in U.K. they are a huge pharma employing a lot of virologists so would be getting decent advice.

That famous line about “ leaving while you can ”and turned to lock the door and
"Sometimes you gotta fight when you're a man“.
Always made me smile

Morning All,
I pop in about once every 2 years but often just check out the chat.
Wanted to post as thought Kenny and the Gambler was quite apt given todays news and the state of the markets.
Know it is tough ATM but hope you are all finding ways of surviving and managing during current crisis.
Sure you will all support each other which is important at this time and nice to drop in a supportive board rather than one arguing over unimportant things in life.
Take care all

IC Report FYI

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Hi C7,
Thanks for kind wishes but it was Neil Ferguson who led Imperial College report that got signs and tested positive rather than myself, so apologies for any confusion.For the record I am fine.

You asked about the situation in Italy and it was the IC Report( link attached) based on the epidemiology of Covid 19 in Italy which seems to have changed/ advanced the policy of mitigation into suppression in both the U.K. and US.
Good to see a united front in the fight against this threat and very impressive performance tonight especially from the Chancellor

No worries,
We have moved onto Zoom a remote platform to hold virtual meetings and interviews etc as well as other stuff like Skype etc so used to being out all the time but walking the dogs has never been as good.
ATB

“Implications “

Hi LL,
Have you read the full IC report as very interesting imp”ovations for both U.K. and US

Katnick I am absolutely fine. Adjusting to the challenges faced by many others in just getting used to new ways of remote working,taking measures to protect others, changing social habits etc but am lucky enough to be able to survive OK.
Really feel sorry for many others who face economic meltdown and major threats to their health.
God bless all the key workers

Morning
Thanks for best wishes and sorry for any confusion.
It was a tweet from Neil Ferguson so I should have put in quotation marks.
So wishing everyone who succumbs to this awful threat the best and accept the vast bulk will have a relatively short period of discomfort but still a worry for those in the vulnerable groups in particular.
Fantastic work by All Key workers and hopefully we are moving towards the stage of seeking togetheness

Hi TF,
Yes good luck to him.Also Neil Ferguson,the guy who led the Imperial College work that led to increased social distancing measures also has tested positive.
We know London is a hotspot and see his tweet.

Sigh. Developed a slight dry but persistent cough yesterday and self isolated even though I felt fine. Then developed high fever at 4am today. There is a lot of COVID-19 in Westminster.