Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Morning agree Ruck,
The Genmab deal is a case in point and illustrates the thinking of several posters. They make the instant leap from where we are now to a £600m+ incremental valuation to SCLP conveniently missing out the considerable risk,7-10 year timeline and future dilution.
Why do they think Genmab only paid about 1% of that figure direct to SCLP and the rest milestones as if it was such a dead cert why would SCLP not held out for a much bigger slice of the pie.
As you said we may get there but please let us have a balanced debate about probabilities of success and appropriate valuations not pie in the sky speculation based on what May happen not by those dreamers who reside on fantasy island.
Dragon,
Where do I say anywhere about the SP bit not doubling or tripling.RR talks about 50p which is a five fold increase and if it all comes good it could easily get beyond that even to £1.
What I am countenancing against are the valuations in the multi billions which some on here have been espousing for over 10 years.
You can see the likes of RW response to anyone that does not agree with at least a 10,20 or 50 fold increase from current levels he simply resorts to type of anyone who does not share his vision by one line caustic utterances.
What is amusing is he actually believes there is some sort of “ boiler room” conspiracy to deliberately keep the SP here low.
He could not be further from the truth as there is no need do anything so count up how many posts the likes of me have made on here the last 6 months hardly any and like any SH I want the SP to rise the only difference being I along with others take a much more balanced view and are not in such a desperate situation as likes of Ratty and the other over exposed glee club who ignored the astute advice they have been constantly given
Nice balanced post RR and a reminder of reality here and in fairness I do think a lot more LTH have readjusted their expectations to a more realistic level here.
Some of the more ambitious valuation targets as you say make a complete leap between undoubted great potential and blockbuster Approved drugs totally ignoring the risks,the timeline and the additional costs in getting there all of which are going to seriously impact on the journey here.
It is hard to try and out a valuation on the current assets in terms of what someone may pay but I will make a few observations.
I doubt one party will make a specific bid for the whole of SCLP given the diverse range and stage of assets so the value is not the sum of all the parts.
Is really hard to guess but imo the outcome here will be determined by RM and Vulpes and in particular the CLN conversion next year.Redmile will have an exit strategy which may or may not be aligned to that of SH but they are unlikely to await the full potential of each and every asset.
Those that say the likes of SCLP cannot go private are simply guessing as none of us know but if they intend to progress the drug development of iSCIB 1 they may decide that is best served by going private and the BoD will be persuadable if required.
I am confident that we will each see a nice return from these levels but be prepared for a wait at least 12-18 months but AIM liquidity is horrendous at the moment and you need to attract new investors to make the SP move in a significant and sustained manner.This will not be achieved by a few LTP topping up here as many if very happy with their level of holdings and we need positive and regular newsflow.
SCLP have never been one for providing regular updates and often the news whilst very positive is often accompanied by further improvements to the Science which Althoigh welcome in improving outcomes has to be balanced against the extended timelines it invariably leads to.
thanks fd for that and i recall that she has been “ copied” previously but the below was on the 2024 draft agenda which was sent direct to me.
if wvc are fleshing out the 24 agenda by rehashing previous agendas then that is not good form but i have no reason to doubt it.
bit more detail to my lse post sorry can’t post link
& therapeutic vaccines
chair:
09:30
new frontiers in cancer vaccine antigens: ai-driven target discovery for broader therapeutic
reach
senior representative, evaxion biotech a/s
09:45 navigating the complex study designs of therapeutic vaccines
senior representative, ppd, part of thermo fisher scientific
10:00
10:15
personalized vaccine tg4050 induces polyepitopic immune responses against private neoantigens
in resected hpv negative head and neck cancers
to invite: dr alessandro riva, ceo, transgene
10:30 neoantigen directed cell therapies
dr sergio quezada, chief scientific officer, achilles therapeutics - tbc
10:45 camyo-01: colorectal cancer-specific camyotypes formulated into an mrna vaccine
cedric bogaert, co-founder and ceo, myneo therapeutics
11:00 phase ii uv1 trial updates
to invite: carlos de sousa, ceo, ultimovacs
11:15
clinical update on the dc targeting melanoma vaccine, scib1 and the modi-1 vaccine targeting
citrullination
prof lindy durrant, ceo & cso, scancell
11:30-12:30 expo & partnering break
join us in the exhibition hall for: 1-2-1 partnering & poster sessions
12:30
targeting mkras vaccination to the lymph nodes to promote anti-tumor immunity: preliminary
results from the phase 1 amplify-201 trial
robert connelly, ceo / dr pete demuth, cso, elicio therapeutics
12:45
nous-209 genetic vaccine encoding shared neoantigens for treatment and interception of msi
tumors
dr elisa sc****lli, cso / dr morena d’alise, vp of immunology, nouscom
13:00
neoantigen immunotherapy for solid tumors: molecular responses and clinical benefit in end-
stage patients – title tbc
dr andrew allen, ceo, gritstone bio
13:15 from covid-19 to oncology: regulatory perspectives on the development of rna vaccines
senior representative, biontech - tbc
13:30 mrna-4157 individualized neoantigen therapy: mrna therapeutics coming of age in cancer
senior representative, moderna – tbc
13:45 panel: tbc
cedric bogaert, co-founder and ceo, myneo therapeutics
klaus orlinger, cso / henning lauterbach, vp, head of discovery and translational medicine,
hookipa pharma - tbc
andrew allen, ceo / karin jooss, evp & head of r&d, gritstone bio
senior representative, biontech
senior representative, moderna
Just found out what should be a very interesting presentation but is a long way off.
Thursday 31st Oct at WVC ( Europe) at 1115
LD presenting on Clinical update on the DC targeting melanoma a Vax SCIB1 and the Modi 1 Vaccine targeting citrullination.
Can’t post link as it came direct to me and can’t share.
Agree Green it would be good to get an official update on the 2 main trial programmes so that we can at least be kept informed,
This would represent the 5th Meeting/ conference presentation in 6 weeks so you would have thought there must be something new to update us all on.
Not sure Buchanan where you are from and if you know but Buchanan s in Manchester along with Tony Regan and Michael Gourlays were the 3 big group Practices CVS bought a long while ago before they added Petmedics.
FYI this is full consultation document proposal which will be finalised tomorrow and May be of background interest.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65eee4015b6524420bf21a93/Veterinary_Services_for_Household_Pets_in_the_UK_-_Consultation_on_proposed_market_investigation_reference.pdf
I was referring to communication tomorrow.
Do think they will investigate further and that full report could take 12 months or more but I am looking at the detail of what areas they want to look at closer.
I can then judge how it will affect the industry and especially the individual corporate groups like CVS.
Hi All,
Some good comments and in general agreement.Will look at next CMA response and judge accordingly.
Fortunately I know this space like the back of my hand so confident I can predict the impact of any investigative action even if not the timeline.
Enjoy rest of w/ end
Morning don’t see any movement out of current range until 11th April when next CMA communication comes out.
Then depends on what action they decide.
If they go for a full investigation then this could drop further not on fundamentals imo but on general sentiment so lot of money waiting on sidelines but this is not a typical AIM stock
No worries,
It is not CVS way to respond in same way but they have along with couple of other corporate groups made approaches to CMA about a more limited half way house investigation but not sure if that will work.
You have to look at individual corporate models and how any possible wider investigation may impact the different groups and the fact the SP here has fallen so much.
So the underlying business here is still robust and they did make most of there U.K. purchases a long while ago so less likely to be in a monopolistic situation locally and plus they have been very careful with U.K. purchase since as well as establish new Practices like Southport.
They can easily change their local names and they also have ANIMED so an on line presence plus Vet buying group as well as related business.
So yes they have a big exposure to Vet market but as I said SP has halved and I believe the CMA will leave them relatively unscathed so imo this will bounce back nicely in time.
Better day today.
PAH are much less exposed to the specific Vet sector than CVS and also they issued a more robust response based on their specific model.
However still believe this drop is well overdone
Just got back from BSAVA and as usual busy during breaks but quiet during ie tires.
Not much talk about CMA report and industry just carries in as normal.According to Vet Times CVS are the only named corporate group to have approached the CMA about suggesting an intermediate framework rather than a full investigation.
Much better day today.
Yes great post Surprised.
Don’t forget in Feb 22 when CMA did report on purchase of QPC the lowest the SP got was £16.Then they did an investigation into local monopolies but only with CVS- if you look at those including Nottingham and Warrington and know anything about Vets in those localities and which ones are CVS you will know if the CMA simply required the divestment of The Vet then they could not have been that concerned with CVS dominance.
So if CMA require further divestments which is the main worry to the Corporate sector then CVS are very unlikely to be impacted
The Vet market particularly Companion Animal where CVS are strongest has exploded since Covid in terms of numbers of all pets as well as more expensive treatments such as the mABs vs Osteo arthritis which are now amongst the most expensive medicines.
CVSG have improved their own margins by their policy of white label and the huge increase in their PHC numbers and yes they may have paid highly to get into the Australian market but most of their U.K. purchases were at a time before prices peaked here.
ATB