Member Info for itsgambling

August starts on Wednesday. Lots of reasons to believe this will be a transformational month for motif... One more chunk of amp''s distressed holding probably moving to an ii. Nda acceptance. Commercial deal announced. Time for those controlling the sp and building large stakes to let this go. I'm going to enjoy August. IG

Hello eldorado. Anything around here, 95mil or 100 mill is a hugely undervalued imo. It's commonly quoted that taking a new AB to fda approval costs around $1bn. Hence some of the big players are reducing their AB r&d. Buying a small firm who have done the work for £350mill is much cheaper. With approval for absssi and more applications in the pipeline, we should be worth many multiples. Hence the likes of sand grove recently investing north of £12mill here. IG

Hanibal - I really wonder why you're invested here. You should sell up and invest in something you believe in.
I'm here because I firmly believe it will multibag this year, and has very low risk of a heavy loss. It has taken longer than I expected and has been extemely boring, but nothing has happened to change my view of the eventual outcome.
IG

Hanibal - I really wonder why you're invested here. You should sell up and invest in something you believe in.
I'm here because I firmly believe it will multibag this year, and has very low risk of a heavy loss. It has taken longer than I expected and has been extemely boring, but nothing has happened to change my view of the eventual outcome.
IG

Cripes. I'm not sure AIM is for you two. The share price has dropped 3% on very low volume.
Thousands of pounds of paper loss for me (£360k loss for SandGrove!), yet I can see that it's meaningless. I am here for a share price of £1+. And I believe that will happen. Nothing has changed. Why are you looking at every trade so closely, it's going to drive you mad.
The facts are ... a leading US institutional investor has recently taken 4.99% and wants to remain anonymous, SG have recently invested around £12million, the science is solid, P3 was passed, NDA has been submitted.
Patience is required. I suspect the institutional investors are not analysing every trade and every 3% movement!
IG

AMP shares were taken in advance of the first tranche lasttime, I expect the next lot will be taken in Aug (based on timescales for the last lot).
August ... AMP shares, CF in vitro results, NDA acceptance, Commercial deal .... exciting
IG

...And I have ended up with slightly more shares :-) New holding record for Motif of 353250 shares.
Five weeks since NDA submission... Think August should be very interesting with NDA acceptance, CF in vitro results, another chunk of AMP shares being snaffled up, possible reveal of some of sub threshold large holders and the big reveal of our commercial partnership / deal.
Best of luck
IG

"a duster in all three layers is impossible" - hahah brilliant.
Well done Einstein. Impossible to lose on this AIM oil drill.
IG
PS: You should read back on the history of these production wells 'capabale of blah blah'. All the missed promises & targets. 103 is what it's about. All or nothing. Place your bets.

Doesn't take much to move this up.
Feels like the MMs (or someone) have sat quietly accumulating any flipper shares from the placement and yet won't give any away cheap.
Exciting times with so much news due and the small fund raise behind us.
IG
PS: Took a small position here a week or so ago.

Is worth 50%

Bore. Please tell me you don't honestly believe that current production is with 50% of the mcap? Or even close to that. I'm assuming that you've simply said this as part of the ramping to encourage new investors. The mcap was sub 50% of this level a few months ago - with 103 still on the cards (and apparently fully funded). And now a complete duster on 103 is worth more - haha brilliant. Full duster will leave the mcap at around 1p. At best. This drill is absolutely critical to the company. Please don't fool yourself thinking anything else. Don't get me wrong. The drill is exciting and success will be very profitable for holders. Just drives me mad when people post absolutely drivel and attempt to fool others / themselves. IG

Thanks to the 150% dilution the share is heavily over bought. There are now a huge amount of pis heavily exposed here. Overbought doesn't necessarily have any connection to share price movement.. Best of luck. IG Ps. I see the it's now well below bid to sell even a small volume. Pps. Nothing on aim is ever 100% sure, no matter what the rampers would have you think ...

The 'rig en route' news certainly helped shift some overhang. I expect arrival and then spud news to help shift more. The placement shares and over exposed pis are, as expected, tempering any rises. Spud day will inevitably see lots more 'sell into (expected) news'. Post spud I expect the stalemate to break one way or another. Direction will be a battle between the size of remaining flippers & over exposed pis who plan / need to derisk vs the rainbow chasers. I expect the mms will have a fun. I'm still waiting on sidelines as I'm expecting a better entry price due to the share being so overbought. Gla. IG

"optimised wells 1 and 2 WIILL be producing" - careful there Mr Bladder. You're sounding lke the BOD. They've been promising this for 18 months and have dramatically failed to achieve anything like those levels.
35bopd isn't even enough to pay for overheads. Hence I firmly believe the downside is 0. I suspect you agree - given that you plan to de-risk.

Have you done any workings to support the 5 bagger statement or simply finger in the air upside? (not disagreeing, just interested in whether anyone has workings. Esp after seeing someone post the other day that they saw upside on the drill of £1.5bn to us - haha, genius)

IG

Good post Joe - mostly agree. Fluctuations now are irrelevant for anyone in till the end. It's a coin toss between either (basically) total loss or very good return. [or somewhere in between, of course]
The reason I say mostly agree, is simply to open a debate on the value to us of a successful drill finding commercial oil at the top end of potential. Has anyone got any workings on the value of our share of a decent find, valued as oil in ground?
IG

Hi Bladder, Are you still planning to sell on spud? IG

Akao has an mcap of over $350m. Which was over $500m two weeks ago until their AB was cleared to treat adults with complicated urinary tract infections, but declined approval for treating bloodstream infections. Declined because of not being proven effective. Understandably that kind of uncertainty about the effectiveness of the drug has smashed their mcap (to 'just' three times ours). IG

No target. Just here to be mischievous. All those who have bought in expecting to make 25% and get out before the result might be in for a shock. I'll buy in for the drill itself and hold to result. Is a worthwhile gamble. Might lose all or make a decent return. IG

Think or hope? ;-) The placees (who are likely to be aware how much churn is left ) selling in 100k & 200k chunks obviously don't agree. IG Ps. Will you still sell on spud if the sp hasn't risen for you?

Hi Eldorado.

To clear up a couple of things...
1) I don't think the drill is a stinker. I think the BOD have historically been doing a very poor job, and have actively misled investors. And the funding deal was very very poor for investors. However, they now have secured funding and will drill. And the drill is interesting.
2) I don't agree about people doubting the drill. The company have ample cash and a rig - A banana couldn't fail to drill now. There is no doubt that they will now drill imo. Hence I feel the risk of not drilling is negligable and that the market has now priced in the drill going ahead.
3) I still feel that there is a high chance the pre drill hype & rise will be balanced by placement overhang & the huge amount of pis expecting to top slice/ derisk. This is just my opinion.

IG