Member Info for itsgambling

Break and ideally close above 34 and we're out of the wedge. Over 37 and we're on for the re-rate. Was always going to happen, just had to be patient until the iis were ready.
Maybe not today, but I feel supremely confident. Such tiny downside risk - and all the iis building positions above and below the 3% threshold... exciting.
Lots of major news expected in Q3.
IG

Today's 'update' ...

"Although the annual report covers the twelve months to 31 December 2017, I am using my report to provide an update on the latest progress on these three wells:"

re: 101 ...

"It was successfully brought back on line and the flow rate immediately surpassed the previous rate of 35 bopd. The Company is now allowing the flow rate to increase gradually until it achieves the maximum level of sustainable flow. "

Notice anything odd ...

3RD MAY - "the flow rate immediately surpassed the previous rate of 35 bopd. The Company is now allowing the flow rate to increase gradually until it achieves the maximum level of sustainable flow. The Company advises that it is likely to take up to two weeks before the maximum flow rate is achieved and will update the market once that flow rate has been established." - [up to two weeeks - Haha!!]

I notice the rampers have reverted to crayons on twatter. Getting serious now - haha. If you believe the promises of the BOD then everybody is gonna be millionaires. Zero risk. And they have such a good record so far :-)

Hahaha

IG

I will probably buy in. For the full drill, not with any intention of reducing holdings during the drill. Not yet as I think I will get lower entry.

It annoys me when the twatter massive start pumping a share like crazy. There are a tonne of holders (many who I know took placement shares and intend to reduce their holding) who are banging on and on to give the impression to pis that this is a guarateed money maker. Zero risk.
It's a very one sided conversation. And sounds more and more like people panicing as this is not going the way they want / need.

IG

Hi S Off.
Even these muppets can't fail to drill 103 now. They have ample cash and a rig agreed.
I would give the chance of them failing to drill in Q3 a sub 5% chance. Everyone knows that.

There are so many pi who believe, like you, that there will be a magical guaranteed 50% or more jump in the sp and that they will be able top slice. Imagine if you're wrong - and there is no big rise. Are you going to carry your entire holding to drill end? I doubt that. And so many pi are in the same boat. As the drill goes on a huge number of people who have averaged down will need to offload some shares, that's a lot of downward pressure.
JMO
IG

Sonny - what % of the holdings (as they currently stand), do you think people indend to keep until the end of the drill?
IMO, a huge % of pi intend to cut or top slice prior to the end of the drill (as they are over exposed and don't intend to risk all on the flip of a coin).
Add to that the amount of placement shares still to be flipped, and you might well find that there are more sellers than buyers over the coming 2 months.
Don't get me wrong, I'm confident the drill will happen, and if you are invested until we get a result then it's largely irrelevant. You will either make a good / very good return, or lose all. The concern is if you are invested but intend to cut your holding around spud / during drill - that might not work out as so many people seem to expect...
IG

Rig and spud are now basically guaranteed. And therefore priced in. A large number of pi intend to derisk pre or during drill. Plus a lot of placement shares still to flip. There are many who are over exposed here on the belief that this will guaranteed rise on spud. No guarantees in aim. There is almost no chance of 103 not being drilled soon so you have to assume that anyone wanting in has bought in. JmO IG

Hanibal. You misunderstood what GL said ... the institutional investors (SandGrove specifically) said that they wouldn't pay any LESS than 31p. ie: they wouldn't buy into the placement if it was priced any lower.
If you think the sp is going to go down, before it goes up, why not sell? You talk like you think the risk reward is poor, and yet claim to hold, very odd?
I personally see very little short/med term risk, very little chance of a significant drop, a reasonable chance of positive short term deal news, and high chance that at some random time over the next 6/8 weeks the iis will decide it's time and we will rise over 100% in the course of a few days.
IG

Almost everything you have ever said about motif has been negative. Strange for someone who claims to be a holder. And now you're dragging up an article from over a year ago with significant flaws. We are not looking to 'go it alone' being the key issue. I can only assume that you are trying to persuade weak pi to sell, for your personal gain. The institutional investors building large positions both over and under the declareable threshold are obviously bullish (like me) about the short & medium term opportunity here. Your subtle attempts to Un nerve pis are quite a dirty trick. Please admit you want in cheaper as you also see the opportunity here... IG

What this lot say, and what happens, are usually poles apart.
Have a look back at the various RNS over the last year or so... these were all nonsense, especially the timings!!Misleading investors is their speciality.

4th Aug 2017 - "The rig is due on site by 30 September 2017 and drilling TLP 103 should take approximately 45 days to complete." [they were not funded to do this and did not have support from their partner - oh and no rig!!]

14th Sept 2017 - "It is therefore not anticipated that the rig will be available to AAOG until mid-December at the earliest."
"TLP 101 well where quotes for replacing the entire flow lines between the well head and the separator have been received and a work order will be issued, with the work being completed by the end of October" [October - haha}

26th Sept 2017 - "I want to be clear that we are fully funded to drill the new TLP-103 well in accordance with current licence terms" [actively misleading investors]

11th Dec 2017 - "AAOG is very pleased with progress on the licence extension and hopes to provide a further update on this before the end of the year" [NO UPDATE UNTIL MARCH!!]
"the Company is discussing alternative offers in place from other contractors in order to ensure that drilling can commence in Q1 2018" [Q1 2018 !! HAHAHA !!!]

19th March 2018 - "Drilling operations at TLP-103 are planned to commence in June 2018." [When they sent this, they knew the funding shortfall!!]

3RD MAY - "the flow rate immediately surpassed the previous rate of 35 bopd. The Company is now allowing the flow rate to increase gradually until it achieves the maximum level of sustainable flow. The Company advises that it is likely to take up to two weeks before the maximum flow rate is achieved and will update the market once that flow rate has been established." - [up to two weeeks - Haha!!]

IG

And the 1M share sell on open is not questioned!!
Stinks.
IG

Just had a skim through the posts and this forum has become quite unreadable. All the rampers obviously bought into the twitter p&d and are clearly now panicking at the paper loss - hence all the vacuous posts. Either take the loss and move on, or wait for news. The panic posting just makes it worse. Nobody is going to buy based on this empty minded groundless posting. Either the company will find a life saving deal or they won't, end of. IG

Unlikely but not impossible. I think it's fair to say that most holders will be up by 7am from 1st August onwards. IG

By my estimate they have recieved about £1.6m from CLNs being converted so that would be helping. Given the cash burn last year, I expect things are tight and that is likey why the sp is getting hammered. People expect a placement and the BOD need to reassure about cash position ASAP. IG

The new holders all sitting below the declaration threshold is an ideal situation. They are happy to quietly accumulate for now. Taking the placement shares and amp shares. They are happy that the sp stays where is for now. That won't last for long. When they want the sp to rise, it will. And they will all add and reveal in quick succession, things will build fast. SG only have to increase by another 1% on the open market and that will use up all free float / placement flippers, and be the catslyst for lift off. Imo that will happen in the next 8 weeks. At which time we'll be waiting for commercial deal and nda acceptance. Exciting times. IG

We are well funded for the rest of the year at least. No reason at all to raise any more funds. IG

Littletrader. You can have my 350k shares for half that price. Offer expires in an hour ... :-) IG

Should get a small bounce off 19/20. Close below 19 and things get ugly. IG

Haha - predictive text makes me sound like that policeman from allo allo! IG

You know a forum has hot rock bottom when the vacuous fools turn up with entirely unfounded and unreasoned predictions that a falling share has hot rock bottom and will double any day. IG

We missed your rambling madess. Must say that your first 4 posts under this new pappy disguise have been worth the wait. Please don't disappear for so long again. IG