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PS: It has cost the buyer a fair chunk of their old holding to keep the sp down and get this bargain price. Without that supressing seller this will fly tomorrow. Back to the 40s IMO.
IG

Agreed... 100% sure it's direct transfer. Seller is almost definately AMP. IMO buyer is likely either Sandgrove or our mystery ii who is/was sitting at 2.999%.
I'd prefer the mystery ii as they will then come out from behind the curtain. Just in time for NDA acceptance and re-rate, funny that ;-)
IG

Awesome news that they have paid off all remaining loan in one hit. (not if you hold AMP obviously).
And 11M will need to be declared so we should get a very interesting TR01 too.
Whoop whoop
IG

Hi both. Good to hear you're still positive. Looking forward to the £1 party. IG

Looking increasingly like it was AMP pre-selling enough to cover the September payment.
September instsallment of their loan repayment is c.£720k. The value of the chunky trades over the last few days is around £700k.
Would make sense that they only deal with the first payment and wait for a rise as their MTFB holding is the difference between life & death for AMP.
The 2.3mill shares found a home easily at this price.
IG

Morning dude
I think you could be right about Monday. Be really positive to see that confirmed.
IG
PS: Are Mr & Mrs Sheltie still invested here?

Ivy. Have you been on the bourbon? ;-) IG

Calisto. AMP have no choice here. The money is due and the shares are held by the lender as security. IG

I've expanded my thinking here. Only slightly and it doesn't make any difference but thought I'd share.
I now believe there are 2 possible (very similar) scenarios:
1) The shares being offloaded are the AMP shares being pre-sold for the September payment.
2) The shares being sold are being used to hold the price down for the buyer who will take the full tranche at the current price.
Both are effectively AMP shares. Clearly nothing to worry about as there is obviously a keen buyer at this price, and a finite source of shares. We should get clarity either way soon. And very probably an update as to who is mopping them up ...
IG

Is having to

If having to use a lot of shares to keep a lid on this. When the AMP sale has gone through this will really shift.
IG

The first 3 loan payments were pre-paid using the proceeds of a bulk sale of MTFB shares to a US inst inv. This bulk sale was for 1 share below the reporting threshold. This was done about 3 weeks before the first loan payment was due.
I am expecting the remaining 4 payments to be dealt with in a similar way and that the price has been controlled to benefit the buyer (by the buyer).
Given that this is the last chunk of AMP shares, I am expecting the buyers identity to be revealed and for the suprressive manipulation to end. These iis have enjoyed building significant positions on the cheap and will now walk the sp up as we approach a commercial deal and NDA approval. Rich get richer. Simples.
IG

Another great interview. The extended exclusivity will significantly help our position when negotiating a commercial deal.
Confirmed that the absolute latest we will hear about acceptance is 27th August.
So there is a high chance that the AMP shares will be sold before this (I was guessing on/around 23rd).
Still feel confident that August / September will be transformational.
IG

Further to my last post. Assuming the ii who took the last tranche of AMP shares is the same buyer of this next lot, then it doesn't take a genius to work out who's selling/holding the price here. They are likely to have agreed to buy them at an av price over a fixed period - so they can afford to risk free sell some of the previous 9mill shares at 30p+ as they will be buying a bucket load more at the same price, and it secures them a great price for the next tranche.
IG

I don't see the trading pattern as someone selling for the sake of selling. Seems more to me that they are selling to keep a lid on the sp. Am convinced it is being done to secure a price for AMP shares. Looks like they are going for 30p. $3.7m at 30p ... around 9.5million shares. Hope and expect to see this sale go through soon. Would be a bonus to find out the identity of the US inst buying.
IG

Around $3.7mill worth of AMP shares will be sold directly to an institutional investor at some point in the next 2 weeks.
Every 1p difference on the sp will make £100k difference to them in this deal. IMO this is the source of the manipulation.
Can't wait for this deal to be done.
IG

Given the rolling submission, and the urgent need for ABs, IMO the 2 month window to be quite accurate.
Personally i'm expecting it this week. Very latest next week.
Followed by a bulk sale of AMP's shares the following week (w/c 20th) and then begins the re-rate as we await commercial deal news.
IG

Very likely that (as per last time) the AMP shares will be sold to an ii in one lump. I believe there is a good chance that this will happen around 23rd August and that the price is being held for the purpose of this sale.
Assuming the same ii takes them, then they will have to reveal their identity and (with the AMP yolk removed and NDA acceptance and commercial deal imminent), we are very very likely to see a re-rate. The iis will all benefit and if we're honest, they are the ones in the driving seat. They wouldn't take multi million dollar positions and see the sp trickle down on small volume indefiniately. The big game is imminent. Next 4-8 weeks will be exciting.
IG

Great posts last night. Thanks all. Completely agree that this looks fundamentally very positive and expect 3 bag minimum. The new ii interest and negotiations in the background support a view that patience is required as this could jump any time - probably when it's least expected. My view us that a commercial deal will be concluded August or latest September as everyone involved will want to progress habp asap. Hence I have built a large position and now hold strong. IG

Hi Hanibal.
Any reason for that feeling?
IG