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Quite understandably AMP have done everything they can to hold onto their remaining 8.5% of motif shares. Their debt has been postponed until next September (2019). So no wolves at the door / distressed seller - between now and approval date in Feb / commercialisation in H1. I still expect a transformational commercial deal to be announced soon (during October). IG

Bearish? You? Never !! :-)
The due dilligence & investigations that Sandgrove and M&A did, prior to investing millions here, clearly came to a different conclusion to yourself.
AMP appear to be holding off selling any more shares - IMO they expect POSITIVE news over the next 2 weeks. They are insiders.
IG
PS: Hanibal - try not to be disappointed when the commercial deal causes a huge jump in the sp and you miss out.

GL has said many times over the last year that a deal around now (q3 2018) will pay for the habp p3 trial and will be a key part of the preparation for commercialising iclaprim immediately after approval next year. IG

Every day we don't see an off book transfer of AMP shares I become more convinced that we are very close to commercial deal news. Amp have until 15th October to pay their next installment. It's around $950k thanks to them over paying the last few. They had no problem finding an ii to take 9mill shares in May and 3mill in August so this smaller amount won't be an issue if they have to sell them. Clearly Amp don't want to sell any more at this low price if they can help it (their motif shares are the main thing they have worth anything - and the directors hold most of the company via debt). In May and Aug they made the off book sale well before the next payment was due (due 15th, rns 23rd & 21st of previous month) so you would expect the same now. AMP are insiders so know if a commercial deal is imminent. I believe this is the reason they are holding off selling - as they know we are just days from a large announcement and potentially suspension of the share pending sale / global deal. If an rns arrives later in the week for sale of 2.5m amp shares I'll be happy - we all want rid of them and they have less and less left to sell. But if it doesn't, I believe it signals even bigger news in the next fortnight.... IG

The lead on both bid and ask has historically been DMA, was pointing out that the DMAs have moved off the ask and it was now being led by cantors (bid remains led by DMA). The reason i feel this is positive is that the manipulation is clearly driven by the DMA users. An MM will have a small number of shares to sell and then move off the ask, so this could ... maybe ... hopefully ... fingers crossed ... lucky clover be a hint of an imminent move up to a move sensible level.
The big drivers this week / next week will be the latest trache of AMP shares and details of the commercial deal. Inevitably DMA trading change will preceed this ...
IG

pleasant change to see an MM (Cantors) on the ask, and the DMA pulled back. Could this spell the start of what we've been waiting for?
Any bets on suspension as deal announced?
IG

$20m cash in bank. Dramatically reduced cash burn. All looks good. Deal news one day closer. And no AMP share transfer. Maybe they are aware ( as they are insiders) that the deal is days away from being announced - so are not pre selling a chunk to an ii. Exciting times. IG

Hi Tobias.
The timeline has not been put back. I'm expecting details of a commercial deal to be announced any day (within weeks at the latest). This will be hugely significant for Motif.
IG

Looks like we're going to have to wait one more day for the latest AMP update.... IG

Hi Dallo

AMP have a pile of other debts, but the good news is that the majority of these other debts are to past or current directors - so they have a clear interest to keep holding as much MTFB as possible, and for Motif sp to be as high as possible (they clearly want and expect it to be many multiples of today).

Also, AMP will soon be down to only about 6% of Motif, so the worst case scenario of them choosing/needing to sell all their MTFB shares isn't that bad (clearly there is plenty of institutional interest that will take them) - but as i mentioned, this is a very bad deal for the directors of AMP who own all the debt. So I expect they will postpone the director debt (as they have done for many years) take more debt as interest and hang on to their remaining Motif shares with both hands.

IG

Expecting RNS on monday. Certainly for most of the remaining. Possibly all.

A potted history for those interested...
AMP owed about about $7.4m which was secured against their MTFB shares. They had agreed that this would be paid off in 7 monthly installments from June to Dec this year.
About 3 weeks before the first payment was due they sold $3.7m in one hit to an institutional investor (2.99% of the MTFB equity, ie: just below the reporting threshhold!). The remaining $3.68m was then to be paid in 4 installments from Sept to Dec.
Again, 3 weeks prior to the Sept payment, an ii took 3m shares. Leaving 6.7m shares required to cover the balance of $2.8m. (at the current fx rate & sp) .

There is a good chance that the major US investment house(s) accumulating below the radar [as confirmed by GL] will soon reveal their identity.

Come monday, will we see another 3m shares sold direct to an ii - leaving just 3.7m split between the last 2 payments? Or will AMP drop to the bare minimum of 2.2m to try and hang on to as many as possible as long as possible? Or maybe the ii will strike a deal for the full remaining 6.7m?
Importantly, next week will we find out who's buying them?
And, will they stop the manipulation that has been used to secure a bargain price for these significant number of shares?
Interesting times... And I maintain that we are weeks (at most) away from a large re-rate. [the patient generally win out in the end]
IG

It's coming Kells. These kind of negotiations take a while. I'm sure it will be concluded in the next month. Not long to wait for a potential multi bag (this deal is the reason SandGrove etc have investment millions here). Also the October Amp share transfer likely to be detailed on Monday ish - possibly providing more information on the institutions accumulating. IG

Coukd the manipulation simply be a battle between the amp share buyers trying for a better price and the amp share seller trying to support the sp? IG

Slightly disagree.
IMO it's +/-5% until the big boys decide otherwise. This could be driven by news, but we've all seen significant sp movement in shares at unexpected times so I don't think news is neccesarily going to be the catalyst.

With regards to news ... Expect another chunk of AMP shares should be dealt with on Friday or Monday, which will be positive [unless you hold AMP].
And clearly discussions are ongoing regarding a commercial deal - details of which will very strongly dictate future sp levels. I'm expecting to hear about this any day. October at the very latest, but could easily pop up this week.
IG

Looks like we have some accumulation going on. As well as the 450k on the bid, an auto eats up every chunk that's added to the ask (50k, 35k etc).
I said before that the re-rate would come when we least expect it. Has been quiet on here for long enough...
IG

Bit of positive movement.
L2 looks nice with 450k sat on the bid.
Global deal time?
IG

Completely agree - it was stupid trade, showing the impatient gambler in me.
IG

I see you are maintaining your 100% record of being negative about a share you claim to be invested in :-)
IG

are me. A quick trade into 'Just' as it's looking ready to bounce. (around 105k of the 'O' trades)
Still holding 250k and the rest will be back into motif ASAP.
IG

Mr 250k seller is obviously seeing a substantial short term downside here? Or why sell such large amounts if there is an sp recovery on the cards?
IG