Member Info for itsgambling

Boom - it was 'actually happening' last year :-) They told us the rig would be on site by x date and that we were fully funded. Until a rig arrives / spuds, there's no real difference. With regard to your comparison.... the 28.75p high last summer was a 20mill mcap. After the 150% dilution, that equates to an sp of 12.5p now. Might get above that, but remember the free float is much much higher and many people will be happy to take their 20/30% profit. IG

Hi Boom ...if it's passed, then the 90mill shares will hit the market and I believe the flippers will start offloading and we will see a dip. There will be quite a lot of volatility over the coming weeks/months as licence & spud news will cause rises, but the 40-50mill flipper shares will keep a lid on it. My guess is that the sp will be range bound between 7p & 12p. (I'm a buyer at below placement price and hope to trade this range until soon after spud). Quite a lot of holders will de-risk during the drill, and so the expectation of drill rise will be dampened and in fact I expect the highest sp will be soon after spud - with a drop off as we approach drill end. Drill result ... anything could happen. Fingers crossed for holders it's a huge success. IG

Milton is the only substantial holder that (according to the RNS) has agreed to subscribe to placing shares. If the vote is passed, then I would estimate that about half the shares will end up in sticky hand (ie: to be held until the outcome of 103). Next Monday is the first hurdle - will be very interesting. IG

Is this the same Sefton who repeatedly inferrred that we were fully funded for 103? The same Sefton who RNS'd that the rig would be on site last September? And now he is unofficially telling investors how people will vote next Monday, and which way the resolution will go? Cripes. Best of luck. IG

Not sure that 90 million 8p shares hitting the market will make this 'fly'. In my opinion, the flippers are holding off selling until after the vote (as they don't want to risk a short position, with this uncertainty). I expect to see a rush of selling if the vote is passed and probably hit 8p within a week. If the vote fails, it will be much more ugly. JMO, as boom said - it's risky and uncertain, each to their own opinion. IG

50.01% of votes cast was my understanding. Assuming that quite a few don't vote, the 23.5% becomes crucial - and quite a chance that other institutional investors support Sister's view. Could go either way. Says a lot that Sister turned down their option to buy shares at 8p. That would have been a considered financial decision. IG

23.5%. If the placement goes ahead they have declined the option to buy shares at 8p, so will drop to about 10%. As largest shareholder they won't need much support to block the placement. IG

Breakdown as requested. ... Sister invested millions last year, based on a business case presented at IPO by the BOD. That case had two key elements.... short term income from workover of existing wells, and no further funding required for 103. These proved to be utter rubbish. What is considerably worse, esp for sister, are the terms of this proposed placement.... it transpires that the bod never had firm agreement from our partner (snpc ) to pay their costs of the drill. The majority of this fund raise is to cover these costs - yet without any improved licence terms!!! So snpc get their share of 103 oil (after cost's returned) without having to risk a penny. What this means for sister and all shareholders is that they have to ensure crazy dilution (or stump up 150% more cash) with zero benefits - ie. 25% COS and if it's not a commercial success they lose all. Yet if we hit oil, aaog still only get their share (after costs). This is all down to mismanagement & misinformation and understandably sister are not going to back a placement on these terms. ... we take massively increased risk for no more reward!! Vote takes place next week. IG

Confirmation that, as established, 100% of the BOA holding is there to service the SG CFD. The notified drop in % holding is simply due to the placement dilution. In reality they have increased by 700k shares since the last TR01 (we already knew this from the SG TR01 yesterday) IG

Guaranteed to double at the very minimum. No risks. Oh dear. Comedy transformation from first posts about very poor investment decision & huge loss, to seeking advice, and now chief ramper. All in a couple of hours. Gotta love AIM. IG

Mate, everyone is not happy with the sp. There is a crazy disconnect between the share price and the company performance. We will get a major surprise quite soon IMO. I'm banking on SandGrove having a good reason before they invest �10 mill ! IG

Carlos, if you re-read my replies to you, they were not negative. They were balanced good advice. I have historically been negative about this share, for good reasons, and accurately so. My interpretation was the only sane voice in a sea of emus and rampers. You appear to be looking for a rainbow chaser to tell you that you haven't lost a penny, that holding for all this time was the right choice, that you should invest more as you are guarenteed to make a fortune. Sorry, I'm the wrong person as my views are objective and balanced. IG

I said "could be 50p OR MORE", meaning it could be more, or less. It's not binary. The flow rates and resultant value are a a range. From unecconomical (ie: valueless) up to multibag. All assuming the placement goes through and they get the licence and manage to actually drill this time. I'm afraid your paper loss comment is utter nonsense. It's a loss. Today you can choose to invest your �13k here (leave it invested), invest in another share, or spend it on car, but trust me, it's a loss. Best of luck with whatever you choose to do. IG

My advice would be to forget about the losses and start afresh. Investing should not be about what's gone before. You have �13k now. Approach this as it you have never invested here or anywhere and decide (based on the risk v reward) how much you want to invest [here and/or any other share]. If you feel, based on the risk, that you 'd prefer only to invest 5k of your 13k, then pull some (you can always buy more if it drops / more news). If, on the other hand, if you can afford to entirely lose your �13k, and you think the risk v reward is good, then stay invested (and maybe top up). This share could be worth zero in a few months or potentially 50p or more. Both options are quite real. In short, don't make your decision based on what's gone before / trying to recoup loses - make it based on where you are now, and how you rate the risk/reward of the investment. Oh, and ignore everyone on the forums :-) IG

Hi Boom Assuming it passes, I think there will be some volatility for a few days, as the MMs create a market for the flippers. MMs love volume but don't care where the actual price is, so they will push it up and/or down to generate interest. In the end, I think the 90mill 8p shares will hold back any big gains for a couple of months. Licence news will likely see double figures for a bit, but it will return to single digits imo. Most of the �7mill will not be interested on 25% COS, they will want their 10-20% and out. During the drill (August IMO) I can see an mcap of over 20mill. Let's get the GM out the way first. As is usual with these clowns they have let shareholders down with the vast delay prior to the meeting. Anyway, now just over a week to go. Exciting times. IG

"The Placing is conditional, amongst other things, on: � the passing of the Resolution to be proposed at the General Meeting;" Sister have made it clear they want to block the placing. As they are comfortably the largest holder, I can see a good chance they manage it. 4th June will be massive. I suspect the selling we have seen so far is simply existing holders who have taken placement shares, selling their existing holding. I doubt anyone would risk being caught short with that kind of uncertaintly (hence the selling has been relatively minimal to date). IG (currently not holding any shares, and not planning to - until after GM placement passed and the sudden subsequent rush of flippers to dump shares is over)

Very dangerous to assume there is a bottom on any shares. Lots are assuming 8p is the bottom here, which is a big red flag. Massively overbought. The 150% dilution, lack of licence, lack of support from Sister, past history all combine to create a potentially nasty situation. So many have bought in already on the assumption of guarenteed profit. No guarantees in AIM. Lets see how the GM goes, and if there are more buyers than sellers (90 million 8p placement shares hitting the market is heavy). To be clear, I'm not predicting a drop, or a rise, I'm just nervous of ever assuminug there's a bottom. IG

Agreed. The sister issue is a huge risk. They are quite understandably going to try and block the placement. The terms are really shocking - in effect the are being forced (in order to maintain their % holding) to 'loan' SNPC £2mill at zero interest - only repayable if we hit oil!! Every shareholder is in the same place. Appalling management. IG

4 princes - The recent trading and L2 support that - is trading quite naturally now as if there is no overhang. Could move up quite quick if it is... IG

The big boys are getting their positions. All under the reporting threshold. Prior to news of nda submission and commercial deal. IG