Member Info for ipcutler66

Stokey - if you read the document it is clear that this an update to the original loan facility and so is just the charge being updated in line with the RNS from December and confirms that HARL have extended the loan facility to £100m as already Announced

As always SNN a well thought out post. The Bad debt level will be really interesting to see as it is a barometer on the health of the country. I am expecting 4.5-5% so not far off your low end thoughts.
The brokers will definitely upgrade their ratings once the full year results are out and I am expecting £7-8 share price from Angels and £8-£10 from Liberum.... but that is just my guess.
Looking forward to the TU ....

So looks like there is definitely an ii or HNWI buying in my opinion - £142k in one purchase at 10am this morning

there were a few seriously large buys in their today which I agree suggest either II's or HNWI.
The trading update could still be 3 weeks away - last years was Jan 26th .... going to be a fun 20 odd days...

Liberum's broker note after the November TU puts a target price of 717p (up from 612p) - its available on research tree - they are the house broker but still a long way to go to get to this price and then they will almost certainly uprate it off the back of the trading update in January.

Hi Trek - just a note of clarification on the ROC payment for your numbers - 2021/22 payment that was made in August 2022 was a total of £16.5m - this is stated in the Liberum broker note. I calculate this as a about 8% of the turnover in the period. (Apr21-Mar 22).
I would love an special dividend but I now believe they will stick with the update and announce a progressive dividend policy alongside the FY22 results in March.
I am looking for between 5-10p payable in April and then a significant uplift in September once the 22-23 ROC payment is made - probably in the region of 25-40p as the Sept interim, subject the the free cash. The full year dividend after the FY23 results are out could be spectacular if they hit their target of £500m @ >4% EBITDA.
Sparky, SNN and myself had a interesting discussion on this subject at the end of November on this board if you want to look back.

Agreed, an amazing day, volume way high and buys won out massively.
I would be amazed if there is not a new ii on the scene.

So a for a bit of fun, where do we think we will be by the end of the year - get those tea leaves out :-)

A conservative £400m TO next year will still deliver EBITDA in the region of £16m so whatever way you look at it there is a lot of value still to be had here.

@Paolo74 - YU are targeting £500m next year @ 4% EBITDA - page 27 of the investor presentation given after the interims in Sept. Lets say they don't quite get to that but deliver £230m H1 and £480m in the year.
That would deliver £19.2m EBITDA, - they have some capital investment planned in YU smart - from what I have researched about £4m - this leads to the potential for a very healthy dividend with only 16.6 m shares in existence
At PE of 10 a share price should be in the region of £13.5-£14.
This share has a long way still to go to be valued correctly given its stellar turnaround and performance.

The rise this morning is good to see and long overdue, as I said back in November, I think they might announce the dividend policy in January - which would be fantastic, but as SNN pointed out at the time they had already stated it is likely to be with FY results in March.
My short term target was the £5 mark but now having to rerate that to £6.5-£7 which if they deliver £270m+ with EBIDTA in the region of 3% we should hit easily.
The big open question is how much will the DIV be... my thinking in November still holds and I think it will be in the region 10p in April with a significant uprate at the interim 23 results after they have paid the ROC payment in August.. they will probably be sitting on free cash in the region of £8-9m at that point. They will I am sure keep some of that for the YU smart growth which will provide payback very quickly with better control of debt, but there could easily be an interim 23 DIV of 30-40p.......
If they do that then this is £10+ share

Not me as I don't subscribe to it.

Pleased to see the buys winning out again today, not sure we will make the £5 by Xmas but it could well be before the new year if the buying pressure continues. If it does then when the FY22 results drop in January we could be in for a rapid rise.

Yep, I agree, its a shame they did not publish them in the RNS - they are clearly not share price related this time.

Nice £41k buy after hours as well - should mean we open a bit up tomorrow. Only about 1 month now till the FY trading update - last Jan it came out on the 22nd but I suspect they may be slightly early this time. Either way it is going to be some really positive news and we end up with the broker notes getting a further update for 2023 and onwards. The £5 mark will be easily surpassed by then

Yep - that is over 60k shares sold by someone in 2 days, they must need the money for something or just taking profits.

certainly was an interesting day, looking forward to see what Thursday brings.

Level 2 had Peel all day at 415p so they were the MM that took it, hopefully now it's gone, as you say, we should see some good price movement tomorrow

There is a large 36k share sale at 12:30 today - price of 415p - that's why it didn't take off.... maybe tomorrow. There are some profit takers and nothing wrong with that but having got to the £4.3 why not wait till January year end figures when it will be at least £1-£2 higher.... strange,

There is a late reported 25k sell at 8:16 this morning got taken up as well. Buyers out weighing sellers and they wont get back in at a lower price - the steady rise toward £5 is on the way.