Member Info for ipcutler66

It might take a while to move upwards again but with a TU, in my opinion, due by Sept 12th to confirm continued growth above market expectations we will push past the £10 mark and onward towards a realistic market valuation.

It's good to see that the SP has continued to rise on pretty good volumes in advance of what I think will be a TU on or before Sept 12th to update the markets on the continued stellar performance in Q3 prior to the H1 for al results on Sept 26th. If as I am expecting TO in H1 is in excess of £220m then I fully expect to see the brokers rerate to £14-£15 at least and then FY23 numbers in the region of £500m+.

It's a good time to be a YU holder -DYOR

So my take on the TU, key for me was the 50% increase in meter points, I was hoping for 30k meters not nearly 40k and keeping cash conversion high means these are good quality customers coming on board so bad debt will come down and free up cash provision.

This bodes well for H223 and 2024.

My original estimate of £220m at about 4% EBITDA looks to be on the low side now for H1 so that is really pleasing.

I think H1 will come in now about £235-£245m with just above 4% EBITDA. FY23 I am now putting at £530-550m.

This leaves a good pot of money, which I am pretty certain they will start distributing as dividends over the next 12-18 months as a progressive policy. I am confident that we will see at least 15p interim - a 5 fold increase on FY22, and then a final dividend taking the total to about 50p for FY23. I suspect they may have the cash for more but as I have said before I think the management team want to be very prudent with how they handle the development of the company given the history.

Anyway I am now expecting the share price to rise slowly over the next few months in advance of the official H1 results at the end of September and then we wait and see if and what dividend announcement comes out.

My short term target is now firmly set at £10 with longer term towards the £13-15 mark.

We will see a lot of trading here now but it doesn't concern me at all, it's good that the market is now more active and interested - and there are PIs that want or need to take profits.

I agree SNN, the TU was an exceptional read, can't remember when I saw a company post such a great set of numbers. Will mull over everything else and post an update later as am away in the USA at present

An irrelevant post as YU only deals with businesses not household energy.

I am hoping for the same info in the TU as last year's H1 - a good summary to work from whilst waiting for the full numbers in September.

The number of meter points is key to showing growth now, they have the company set up for profitable growth but need to deliver new customers moving forward without too much cost....which I think they must be doing based off the May TU.

I tend to agree with you, but I believe that YU management will be cautious at the H1 23 figures see out the year and hopefully deliver £500m this year and then make a final dividend of 20-30p after the FY23 numbers are out next March.

Yes it is going to be really interesting, after the May 31st TU I am expecting TO in the region of 220m with about 4% EBITDA. This would equate to about £8m, a chunk of which YU will set aside for the decreasing bad debt and tax as they are cautious but I am hoping for an interim Dividend in the region of 15p - about £2.6m. This amount would be a hefty 5 fold increase on 2022 FY and send a clear message on future dividend policy / growth.

We won't find out about the dividend until September though I suspect.

The TU confirms that YU are on track for a bumper FY23, in excess of £430m. We have seen this pattern before on the way up from £2-£4 and £4-£6 - there will always be traders taking profits of 20-30% and why not. But once the £4.9-£5.6 buyers are gone then this will move quickly upwards towards the £7-£8. My expectation on the H1 results is a price between £8-£9, it may drop back then as it has done before. What will be interesting is what they are planning on doing with the cash pile ...an acquisition or a significant increase in dividend - could be very interesting come September and a potential interim divi.....

No there is no official information but with the 20 day Long term incentive plan 20 day timeframe ending on Thursday next week I suspect we will get an rns on Friday confirming the 100% vesting. Whether they then share any more interesting news on Q1 who knows....

Just rechecked and correcting myself - its 500p to get 100% so I doubt they will need to issue a trading update unless the price continues its downward spin.

It is very odd isn't it, I wouldn't be surprised to see a trading update next week on Q1 as the board are now at risk of not getting the 100% share vesting from the long term incentive plan..... We are now 10 days into the 20 day period where they need an average price of 550p to get full vesting.....

I wonder when the board might start getting twitchy about delivering the 20 day average 550p share price from results day for the 100% share option......

What we now need to see is Q1 data and confirmation of why BK is so sure that growth is here for the long term…..

I am quite happy to see another ii (braford) or HNWI ( Jonathon Taylor) buy in following the FY22 results / investor meetings.

@SNN - E gas and electricity is a residential supplier isn't it?

It is good to see another ii on board, it's another 3% in long term holding and Jonathon Taylor and Bayford & Co are interesting company.
Volumes so far today are tiny only 14k shares traded - just not many buyers so price drops.
Lets wait for the RNS on the LTIP and then the Q1 / AGM trading update - if as expected Q1 delivers £110m with forward bookings increasing as companies renew either short term or longer term depending upon price with an associated updated broker note - the share price will move in the right direction.

@Aimgambler123 - yes Liberum increased its Target price to 900p but they did not update the full year numbers - keep it at the £350m / TO and increased margins to match 2022 results. A full update of the broker note will review the £350m number but as SNN says they are probably waiting for guidance from YU - which may come in April...
(SPAngel did exactly the same used the old TO number, increased margins and upped the TP to 1015p)

@SNN - Liberum is still using the Jan numbers - £350.3 for FY23 TO. (SPAngel £335.1)
There will be an RNS in April on the LTIP which has the deadline of April 11th.
It would be nice to get a heads up at that time on Q1 figures but as you say historically it has always been AGM time in May before they give any guidance.

Sparky - Given Liberum / YU has been meeting with investors this week, I wouldn't be surprised if that was a worked buy order by one of the market makers not a sell - the market closed 4 minutes after the trade at 540 with only 1 trade of 300 shares at 536......