focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
It is very odd isn't it, I wouldn't be surprised to see a trading update next week on Q1 as the board are now at risk of not getting the 100% share vesting from the long term incentive plan..... We are now 10 days into the 20 day period where they need an average price of 550p to get full vesting.....
I wonder when the board might start getting twitchy about delivering the 20 day average 550p share price from results day for the 100% share option......
What we now need to see is Q1 data and confirmation of why BK is so sure that growth is here for the long term…..
I am quite happy to see another ii (braford) or HNWI ( Jonathon Taylor) buy in following the FY22 results / investor meetings.
@SNN - E gas and electricity is a residential supplier isn't it?
It is good to see another ii on board, it's another 3% in long term holding and Jonathon Taylor and Bayford & Co are interesting company.
Volumes so far today are tiny only 14k shares traded - just not many buyers so price drops.
Lets wait for the RNS on the LTIP and then the Q1 / AGM trading update - if as expected Q1 delivers £110m with forward bookings increasing as companies renew either short term or longer term depending upon price with an associated updated broker note - the share price will move in the right direction.
@Aimgambler123 - yes Liberum increased its Target price to 900p but they did not update the full year numbers - keep it at the £350m / TO and increased margins to match 2022 results. A full update of the broker note will review the £350m number but as SNN says they are probably waiting for guidance from YU - which may come in April...
(SPAngel did exactly the same used the old TO number, increased margins and upped the TP to 1015p)
@SNN - Liberum is still using the Jan numbers - £350.3 for FY23 TO. (SPAngel £335.1)
There will be an RNS in April on the LTIP which has the deadline of April 11th.
It would be nice to get a heads up at that time on Q1 figures but as you say historically it has always been AGM time in May before they give any guidance.
Sparky - Given Liberum / YU has been meeting with investors this week, I wouldn't be surprised if that was a worked buy order by one of the market makers not a sell - the market closed 4 minutes after the trade at 540 with only 1 trade of 300 shares at 536......
@TheMillipede824 yes there is - over the last 3 years H2 T/O was 122% 139% and 115% of the H1 T/O.
So H2 historically has delivered the larger T/O growth than H1.
Thanks SNN - couldn't find this last night
@SNN thanks for your thoughts will digest overnight. You mention AR on YUs website, the only one posted there that I could find was the SPAngel that I couldn’t see any graphs regarding 2023 contracted revenue? Could you share the link?
So have been looking through the numbers this morning, and one that still interests me and would be interested in everyone's perspective is the bad debt provision.
At year end they have a £19m provision for bad debt based on £24m trade receivables ...... this seems very prudent to me. I guess time will tell but this is £19m sitting on the books that might get paid - even if it is only 5-10% paid starts making an impact on bottom line. I think YU is still be overly cautious here because of the 2018 accounting issues. My take is that they want to be on the safe side and over deliver - as they have done in the last 2 years.
Anyone else have any thoughts?
@Shearclass - thanks for your opinion, its interesting that Liberum have upgraded the target price and are forecasting bad debt for FY23 at 6.3% down from this years 7.3%, so not sure what you are basing your growth in bad debt on?
YU have performed very well in a massively turbulent market over the last 12 months - increasing key metrics across the board and consistently out performing market expectations for the last 2 years.
With the statement of " Very strong start to 2023 with average monthly bookings significantly ahead of the record £24.5m in FY22 and contracted revenue of £247m as at 31 December 2022 for FY23." in these results, I am looking forward to 2023's growth
A great set of results pretty much bang on what they said in January, T/O and profits were in line with the update and bad debt was bang on the markets expectation. (albeit I had hoped for lower). The dividend of 3p was again lower than the 5p I thought but in the same ballpark.
All in all very happy with the figures and now we wait to see what the market thinks....but generating great volumes of cash, profitable and now dividend paying.
The research notes from Liberum - target price now 900p (up from 780p) and SP Angel - target price 1015p (up from 940p) are both out and well worth a read
Will be an interesting read and then a wait till 8am to see how the market takes it .. GLA and DYOR
yes read the RNS's frm that time and all will become clear and yes It is a completely different company now.
Another great post SNN as usual, the next 6 days before FY22 results are going to be really interesting and can't wait to see the final numbers.
My personal opinion is that if the bad debt numbers are as Bobby K states "inline with previous years" then there is a very good chance of yet another blockbuster number appearing on March 14th and profit exceeding market expectations by £2-3m. The brokers currently have provisioned for 7-7.5% bad debt figures..... previous years have been 3-4%.... on a TO of £275m that is a big difference to the bottom line.
It also then makes the January statement of a modest dividend and then a progressive dividend policy payment really interesting..... if they have a profit pot of say £8-£10m how much do they hold back for growth and how much do they distribute..... a 5p dividend is only circa £800k so I may have been pessimistic on my early estimate of 5p... it could be more and we will then have the possibility of dividend investors arriving as well.
Really interesting times and only 7 working days till we find out
Nice to have the confirmation of FY22 results. Going to be interesting to see what happens with the SP between now and then.