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Not me as I don't subscribe to it.
Pleased to see the buys winning out again today, not sure we will make the £5 by Xmas but it could well be before the new year if the buying pressure continues. If it does then when the FY22 results drop in January we could be in for a rapid rise.
Yep, I agree, its a shame they did not publish them in the RNS - they are clearly not share price related this time.
Nice £41k buy after hours as well - should mean we open a bit up tomorrow. Only about 1 month now till the FY trading update - last Jan it came out on the 22nd but I suspect they may be slightly early this time. Either way it is going to be some really positive news and we end up with the broker notes getting a further update for 2023 and onwards. The £5 mark will be easily surpassed by then
Yep - that is over 60k shares sold by someone in 2 days, they must need the money for something or just taking profits.
certainly was an interesting day, looking forward to see what Thursday brings.
Level 2 had Peel all day at 415p so they were the MM that took it, hopefully now it's gone, as you say, we should see some good price movement tomorrow
There is a large 36k share sale at 12:30 today - price of 415p - that's why it didn't take off.... maybe tomorrow. There are some profit takers and nothing wrong with that but having got to the £4.3 why not wait till January year end figures when it will be at least £1-£2 higher.... strange,
There is a late reported 25k sell at 8:16 this morning got taken up as well. Buyers out weighing sellers and they wont get back in at a lower price - the steady rise toward £5 is on the way.
Its a shame they haven't RNS'd the Utility awards win - backs up the Digital by Design story really well when they are recognized nationally as the Utility Digital transformation of 2022...
I would agree, the day started looking really strong and then a few traders appeared. I am happy to see a steady rise before Christmas.
Good to see the £4 barrier cracked, now a steady rise to £5 and beyond.
@SMT - I agree with you but I suspect it dates back to when they set ROC up and in trying to encourage competition and so by having a system whereby companies could utilize the capital until the following August seemed like a good idea.....until energy prices went through the roof and poorly run companies that had not hedged correctly ran out of cash, couldn't pay and went under.
A shame for them but good news for well run companies that have hedged well like YU...
@SMT / @SNN - on the acquisition front - I agree if they are planning an acquisition then yes that will affect any dividend payment significantly - I think I mentioned that in an earlier post.
In terms of next years growth - yes I had factored in a small rate of growth based on Liberums forecast to be conservative, but if we get to £430-450m then cash increases significantly - to more like £24m after ROC payment in August.
@SNN - I had forgotten the comment in the interim RNS about dividend timing...so that will make it interesting.
In terms of ROC payment and cash - last year's payment was £16.5 m - referenced in the Liberum broker note in September 2022 - so I have used that number and then estimated the Apr 21 - Mar 22 TO that this applied to. This gives the estimate for 22-23 figure. It is accounted for in COGS but is paid for from cash as we know in August.
My estimates of cash are based on cash in 2022 - £15.7m at interim, liberums estimate of £16.3 at year end having paid the £16.5m ROC. So in last 6 months they generated £15.5m cash. Equates to £2.6m/ month ....from that I have estimated the cash position for the year. By year end I estimate that there will be free cash in the region of £15-£20m if they pay no dividends........
Thanks SNN for your thoughts - my thoughts on the dividend timing and amount is based on the following logic, may not be valid but thought I would throw it out there for comment.
1) Board need an average share price of >£5 for the 20 days after the results are published in early -mid march. So waiting till then for a divi announcement is risky - subject to what happens in the next 3 months. The share has a pattern of resistance / trading as it approaches the £ mark so announcing a dividend payment at Trading Update in January gives the +ve momentum time to deliver the required share price for the board. We know the content of the trading update already (I suspect it will be £5m higher and a bit more profit but in reality its known) so there may not be enough for the 30+% rise to get to the £5 mark....
2) On the 10p front - I am estimating a ROC payment in the region of £28m next August (2023) - based off YU getting near to £450m FY23 - YU will want to ensure they have plenty of cash to meet the payment which they have done every year. This would then leave them with an estimated £8-£10m free cash in Sept (less anything they give away in Q1 23 ....... which would then lead to a healthy 30-50p dividend at that time. By the end of FY23 I believe we will see a FY dividend in the region of 60-70p. Unless they decide to embark on an acquisition which changes everything...
Anyway those are my current thoughts and would welcome constructive feedback. (DYOR)
So what are people's thoughts on YUs plans for a progressive Dividend policy?
IMO - they will announce it in January after the 2022 trading update comes out, payable late Jan early Feb. I think they will plan to return genuine free cash to the shareholders.
If they deliver >£6.5m EBITDA which will give about >£4.5 free cash (which I think they will) I would be looking for a. 10p divi. With the remaining cash being used to grow YU smart whilst it gets to profit by YE23 and as a cash reserve.
@SNN and Sparky, both good observations on the SAYE scheme - they will all do very well from it, and the increase in trading volume is a good sign - more liquidity will be a good thing in the medium term.
I think you are right on the TO figures - I was estimating between £260-£280m for 2022 in mid November, so anything above that will be really pleasing. We now just have to sit back and watch the shareholder value appear.
Thanks @SNN for your ideas, some interesting points to digest. I think your assessment is worst case as the potential for £60m annualized lost revenue would only occur if all the company failures occurred in month 1 of the year and had the full year contract to run - but it is always good to look at worst case scenarios. I have a figure fo about £7k / meter but that does not make huge difference.
I am expecting to see about the 30k meters as well by year end based on the statement of continuing record monthly bookings would be great to see it a bit higher but I would be happy at that figure.
Another interesting point I have taken away from the interims is on page 22 - where they opened 2022 with a provision of £6m for bad debt and used £3.1m in the H1 - so maybe helps to give a bit of a steer as to where the FY figure might end up, especially with the support of the EBRS scheme to support companies through Q4. It would be fantastic to see a year end bad debt figure between 5-6% let alone lower.....
@SNN - I had factored in the lost customer revenue already on an ongoing basis - what YU have managed to do well - and demonstrated it this year already is to maintain growth through there strategy - digital by design etc, is to mitigate this issue really well. In the H122 interims they used £3.1m on bad debt/trade receivables but still managed to grow TO by 96% on prior year figures.
What are your thoughts on the number of meter points potentially lost at a worst case?