Member Info for ipcutler66

My best guess would be if they are on track for greater than £20m ( circa 5%) more TO or £1m more EBITDA than the current broker notes they would need to update as that would then materially different. The unknown is next year's forecasts are way out but does that matter now at present, it's this year's numbers that are key. Either way it's going to be a fun run into year-end again....

It will be interesting as to when or whether a TU is coming out this year. At present the Liberum brokers note from end of September has YE figures of £425m and 2024 TO of £568m. If what YU said at the investor sessions at the start of October is correct and they have been booking £50m+ per month of annualised contracts this year then 2024 will already have between £550-600m booked at the start of the year.... That in my view requires a TU to update the market officially as to what 2024 is likely to bring (my own view is in excess of £700m) as well as where 2023 will end up as I suspect it is higher than the £425 currently expected. After the investor visits seems to make sense to me as well so will be an interesting few weeks ahead.

@sparky - nothing to worry about really, we have seen this type of drop before and I am sure we will again. We have been given the expected contract revenue fo next year at between £550-£600m and with this year expected to close at somewhere north of £420m it's clear where the company is going. I do find it puzzling that we are getting small volume sales but can only assume it is PIs trying to trade the stock and again we have seen how when a TU drops or a HNWI starts buying they very quickly loose out.

It will be interesting to see where we open on Monday as there were 32k shares reported after 16:15, all of which could be buys or a mix of buys / sells. My gut feel is buys but wont know ill Monday....

Quite a few stop losses being triggered I suspect.... but no worries as by year end we all know where we will be.

Yep just watched it again as well, those were pretty much my take homes too. Was good to see Bobby and Paul confirm what has already been said by them and brokers.

I suspect as well that FY EBITDA will be closer to £40m than £33 given the big hint they made today and if so a TU end of Nov early Dec will be on the cards to confirm.

The confirmation of the contract book for 2024 at between £550 and £600m was awesome as well.

If it's all one buyer then they still have a way to go to get to the 3% - circa 510k - unless it's not a new player....

Would be good to have more independent holders>3% but that's one of the factors in companies with fewer free shares.

I wonder whether BK might consider selling some to a big institutional Investor and at what price....

Yet another £400k+ buy there is definitely someone buying up any shares being sold now. Wonder when they will stop and where the price will be then....

I completely agree, I have for now dropped my spreadsheet as well as the growth coming though is so uncertain in a positive way.

I will wait now until the next TU, either year end or I suspect an update end Nov / early Dec with updated guidance on year end numbers.

For me the key message coming though from the company and the brokers is that significant growth is here to stay and big revenue is coming in 2024 / 25.

From the way the market is reacting with some serious buying occuring it's going to be a fun ride from here to year end and onwards.

So I have been crunching some numbers to see whether the £1bn is achievable next year and how it stacks up to this year.

Assuming that H2 23 delivers the same £51m/ mth contracted revenue then YU will enter 2024 with £568m ish contracted revenue. (£368m at end of August plus 4 months @£50m - I would expect numbers in H2 though but being prudent)

If they then just deliver the same volume next year (£51m /month of new annualised contract wins / month) and prorata the monthly contract wins each month then that should deliver the £568+£51+47+ etc to give a FY TO in the region of £890m...

So if you then factor in bad debt at 3% - £27m - YU would need growth of £127m or so to get to the magic £1bn figure.

Assuming they deliver £425m this year that's circa 30% growth..... I wonder if they can deliver that..... if they do then the EPS at 242 would be crazy

Another day more large after hours buys reported. A further 20k from Thursday and one 35k shares worth £400k today. Someone is buying up all the spare shares out there.

Wow, just read it, YU are saying 100k meters at YE24, if they do that Liberum are saying FD EPS of 242 and TO based on this year's numbers of circa £10k/meter of £1bn that is way higher than even my wildest guestimates.

I would tend to agree and it's more and more shares in sticky long term hands and away from the traders.

Couldn’t agree more with your musings SNN.

I over called the figures as well but am now beginning to wonder what the substantial cash war chest is going to be used for if it’s not going to be distributed back as dividends. Especially as they are about to fund the meter installs with debt financing.

They have left themselves some nice room to exceed the current brokers forecasts but I think we may now see a pattern whereby the broker updates are much closer to reality. I wonder if they are thinking about a move to the main market….

I agree on the dividend, as I have said before I am looking for at least 10p but preferably 15p - giving out between £1.7 and £2.5m - even if they invest £1.5m in the meter division, this would still leave cash in the coffers from the H1 profit.

If we get 15p then the SP may well take off as it will signal the intent to distribute genuine spare cash back to the shareholders. When the company gets to £500m+, which may be sooner rather than later, at current margin rates that could be upwards of 75p/share per year.....food for thought as we would then definitely see dividend investors arrive.

That's a good award to win, it will help exposure of the company.

It will be very interesting tomorrow, I have been surprised with no TU but I am now thinking that after last year when they did a TU early September the SP spiked before H1 results so perhaps they are just rolling with the performance is in line with the last update - H1 in July that showed a 50%+ meter gain so if that has continued in Q3 we are in for some very big numbers come year end.

I am still looking for £200-220m tomorrow - anything in that range for TO and things are on track and blowing the brokers away again.....can't wait till 7am now

That's a good award to win, it will help exposure of the company.

It will be very interesting tomorrow, I have been surprised with no TU but I am now thinking that after last year when they did a TU early September the SP spiked before H1 results so perhaps they are just rolling with the performance is in line with the last update - H1 in July that showed a 50%+ meter gain so if that has continued in Q3 we are in for some very big numbers come year end.

I am still looking for £200-220m tomorrow - anything in that range for TO and things are on track and blowing the brokers away again.....can't wait till 7am now

I am expecting a TU next Tuesday, as I am certain that the H1 performance has continued and so the brokers numbers for the FY23 are way too low. YU has a duty to inform the market if they are way ahead of expectations and they will have 2/3rds of Q3 figures by now.

The number of large sales 10k shares+ over the last week without the buy/sell price changing much makes me think that there is definitely a new buyer in town and the MMs are filling a significant order....I wonder if we will see a TR1 before the end of the month......

What makes me think we will see a TU is I suspect they are way ahead of brokers figures as they were last September when they released a TU prior to H1 numbers, but we are all just having our best guess. Either way I expect to see the back of £12 with the H1 numbers