focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
sorry typo
@SNN I understand that a company must have at least 25% of it's shares in public hands to list on the main market. I am not sure on a move to the main market, there are benefits - better exposure and the potential for different tracker funds to get involved. On the other hand staying on AIM means less regulation and lower cost... Will be interesting to see what pans out.
The key interest for me now is the FY22 results (I think 7am 14th Feb) and what a "modest dividend" turns out to be.....
I doubt it will be down for long, but there are always traders around taking profits.
So over 173k shares traded today according to Lvl 2 data - and last traded at 665p.
There does appear to be momentum now back towards the 12 month high of 740p.
The BK interviews and the City Am news has probably got something to do with it .
Where is the City AM awards news as I haven't found it yet anyone got a link?
With the results looking likely to be published on a Tuesday I would bet on March 8th.... if BK interviews are scheduled from the 14th onwards....
A very large sell today but it was eaten up by a few largish buys... Bodes well for the next few weeks until the FY come out and dividend is confirmed
@Sparky - I have been a bit quiet since the new year just digesting the trading update and fun market volatility since January update.
My current estimates based on ROC payment due at end August in the region of £27-28m (circa 8% of 04/22-03/23 TO based on prior years ROC payments and a few guesstimates) and year end TO between £450-500 with EBITDA of 4% - all in line with YU's stated targets for the year.
Cash at year end I would then hope to be between £30-35m - obviously if a Dividend is paid in April (and possibly again in September) this # will go down but we all benefit from a nice tidy Dividend. It may be slightly higher than that but I would not expect it to be lower unless bad debt gets completely out of hand - personally I think it may go the other way and provide a tidy uplift but I prefer to err on the side of caution.
The key interesting figures now will be in the FY audited report and confirmation of the "modest" dividend to be paid.......
#DYOR
So SPAngel broker note out now as well and have a SP taregt of 940p (up from 635) and Liberums have a very conservative 782p (this is based on FY23 figures of £340m.... which is way off and so I am sure the note will get rerated again in April to a more realistic figure.
So great confirmation of the FY22 numbers this morning, everything being beaten again - there is a good trend being set now by YU Vs market expectations. Liberum have updated their broker note at the same time and have done a good job of setting very low expectations again. e.g. FY23 @ £380m - They have held the bad debt expectation for FY22 as well so I suspect that is where another upside will come in the actual results come April will come from.
Cant wait to see the markets response to this TU between now and April when the dividend gets properly announced, I am expecting 5-10p in April with a mid year in Sept significantly higher once the ROC payment is made.
Well done all LTH and lets enjoy the ride.
DYOR.
fear of missing out....
Stokey - if you read the document it is clear that this an update to the original loan facility and so is just the charge being updated in line with the RNS from December and confirms that HARL have extended the loan facility to £100m as already Announced
As always SNN a well thought out post. The Bad debt level will be really interesting to see as it is a barometer on the health of the country. I am expecting 4.5-5% so not far off your low end thoughts.
The brokers will definitely upgrade their ratings once the full year results are out and I am expecting £7-8 share price from Angels and £8-£10 from Liberum.... but that is just my guess.
Looking forward to the TU ....
So looks like there is definitely an ii or HNWI buying in my opinion - £142k in one purchase at 10am this morning
there were a few seriously large buys in their today which I agree suggest either II's or HNWI.
The trading update could still be 3 weeks away - last years was Jan 26th .... going to be a fun 20 odd days...
Liberum's broker note after the November TU puts a target price of 717p (up from 612p) - its available on research tree - they are the house broker but still a long way to go to get to this price and then they will almost certainly uprate it off the back of the trading update in January.
Hi Trek - just a note of clarification on the ROC payment for your numbers - 2021/22 payment that was made in August 2022 was a total of £16.5m - this is stated in the Liberum broker note. I calculate this as a about 8% of the turnover in the period. (Apr21-Mar 22).
I would love an special dividend but I now believe they will stick with the update and announce a progressive dividend policy alongside the FY22 results in March.
I am looking for between 5-10p payable in April and then a significant uplift in September once the 22-23 ROC payment is made - probably in the region of 25-40p as the Sept interim, subject the the free cash. The full year dividend after the FY23 results are out could be spectacular if they hit their target of £500m @ >4% EBITDA.
Sparky, SNN and myself had a interesting discussion on this subject at the end of November on this board if you want to look back.
Agreed, an amazing day, volume way high and buys won out massively.
I would be amazed if there is not a new ii on the scene.
So a for a bit of fun, where do we think we will be by the end of the year - get those tea leaves out :-)
A conservative £400m TO next year will still deliver EBITDA in the region of £16m so whatever way you look at it there is a lot of value still to be had here.
@Paolo74 - YU are targeting £500m next year @ 4% EBITDA - page 27 of the investor presentation given after the interims in Sept. Lets say they don't quite get to that but deliver £230m H1 and £480m in the year.
That would deliver £19.2m EBITDA, - they have some capital investment planned in YU smart - from what I have researched about £4m - this leads to the potential for a very healthy dividend with only 16.6 m shares in existence
At PE of 10 a share price should be in the region of £13.5-£14.
This share has a long way still to go to be valued correctly given its stellar turnaround and performance.
The rise this morning is good to see and long overdue, as I said back in November, I think they might announce the dividend policy in January - which would be fantastic, but as SNN pointed out at the time they had already stated it is likely to be with FY results in March.
My short term target was the £5 mark but now having to rerate that to £6.5-£7 which if they deliver £270m+ with EBIDTA in the region of 3% we should hit easily.
The big open question is how much will the DIV be... my thinking in November still holds and I think it will be in the region 10p in April with a significant uprate at the interim 23 results after they have paid the ROC payment in August.. they will probably be sitting on free cash in the region of £8-9m at that point. They will I am sure keep some of that for the YU smart growth which will provide payback very quickly with better control of debt, but there could easily be an interim 23 DIV of 30-40p.......
If they do that then this is £10+ share