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Whether they go down the route of share buy back or special dividend or a combination of the two we will wait to see (assuming we as share holders approve it :-) )
Yes it is it gives permission to the BoD to buy back up to 10% of the current share capital.
@NG - some really interesting points raised - the key numbers are above my current forecasts but I can see how you come to them. As you say the key is that 100k meter target and I can see how that then leads to the others.
I would be amazing if they hit their 2024 target as you are right that then leads straight into their longer term ambition of 5%- and I agree if they hit 100k in 24 then there is no reason why they cant get to the 165k in 2025...
I suspect that you are correct in your view on the old supply agreement - it got to the point where it was constraining growth - we should find this out in the next 4-5 weeks when the next TU comes out.
This is one of the best BB's for genuine discussion and ideas that I am a party to, so again thanks to all who help maintain the quality.
They are not - they are valued by the market and at present the markets very happy with the company's results and as I said I suspect that an II or HNWI is taking a stake as we have now had 5 days of large after market transactions posted accounting for over 300k shares. Will need to get to about 500k for a TR1 though
@lucian, doesn't bother me at all, cash position after return of collateral of £82m. EBITDA for 2023 of £42m, the company is now profitable with good margins - expected 6-8% for 2024.
What are you reasons for asking?
There is pretty much zero chance of a takeover as CEO owns 53% and has his sights on a mountain Ch bigger business - 5% market share is the stated aim, up from 1.4% now.
If Q1 is continuing in the same way as Q4 2023, my estimates for 2024 are circa £700-£720m T/O, EBITDA £50-£52, PAT £38-40m, cash on hand £114-£120m. EPS 240-245 and a divdend of circa 80p. If they then remove the share premium account they will be able to distribute (or share buyback) of at least a further £12m or another 80p/share as a special dividend.
I personally am looking at the £1bn mark going in 2025 at which point EPS is north of 3.30 with PAT north of £50m.
What this means for the share price is anyones guess but if it is on a PE of 10 we are looking £24-£25 this year and £33+ next year. All of this can change quickly if as I suspect is happening an II or HNWI is buying heavily. ( My guess is about 300k shares have gone on worked orders in the last 5 or so trading days)
Anyway good luck all DYOR
Check out the YE report (March 19th) - Dividend due of 37p ex div date of May 30th - FY @ 4.86 x earnings cover. New Capital Allocation Policy states that dividends will increase so that they 3x earnings cover. My expectation is that this will lead to a 70p+ dividend for FY2024 based on TO in region of £680-£710m and PBT of £42-£45m with cash on hand in excess of £115m. YU has been demonstrating good management and solid growth above expectations for the last 3 years.
The Liberum note makes a clear statement on Q1 trading being strong so I expect it to have continued at least as well as Q4 23 (£55m bookings / month)
it is mainly an update of the 19th march with added detail from the yu year end company report. maintains a conservative buy at 2050p, £680m to for fy24, ebitda £43m, net cash in excess of £112m, a dividend of 48.9p, eps of 186. all pretty conservative in my opinion but it is always better for the broker to come in under and yu to smash their numbers out of the park as they have done for the last 2 years.
an interesting new section in the report is they have now is their sam analysis -
"yü group has a summary score of 10 and is ranked number 1 out of the 270 uk covered in liberum sam. all three scores are top *****ile and the revisions momentum chart is a thing of beauty. yü group is one of only 7 stocks that has had revisions momentum above the 9th decile for 24 months in a row out of 3800 global stocks covered, so rarified air indeed."
Yep, I think that there is definitely an HNWI or II buying now 2 days on the trot at 1485 with 140k shares - almost 1% of the company. All it will take is some other buyers to come in and the SP will move north. I wonder whether they will be back tomorrow for another 70k....
I wouldn't be surprised to see a further 70k shares after hours again
@SNN very similar to my musings for the year ahead. £41m of PAT equates to circa 80p dividend based on 3x earnings cover. Assuming the share premium capital is cancelled that will also allow for either a further distribution of about 70p or buying back a large number of shares - or a combo of both. Looks like another cracking year is ahead as long as YU continue to grow and deliver the 50% growth they anticipate.
@sheltie - SP Angel cover them and their update is available now. TP of 1900p more conservative than Liberum but again have upgraded all numbers
Sounds like it was very productive use of your time, any mention that it was being recorded for general release?
With over 40,0000 shares traded in the first 12 minutes that's you take... interesting. If you are right and all the traders are gone that's great news for the investors here.
So level 2 is opening up and first buy of the day is 1000 @1470p - Bid - 1400 Ask 1480 - going to be a fun morning...
So liberums update is out - all their estimates have been beaten and they have raised the Target price to 2050p with a buy rating. As usual they are being conservative with 2024 figures of £680m TO.
@Sparky - the proposed cancelation of the share premium account is NOT a share buy back. It is an accounting entry that covers the premium paid above the value. It cannot be used for much except for costs of share issues etc but crucially NOT dividend payments. They propose to cancel this account (which is perfectly legal) and then they will be able to distribute a further £11.9m
Tomorrow morning at 7am the FY23 results will be published and almost certainly the capital allocation policy will be included. As discussed below their house broker has suggested a £20m dividend distribution will be put in place. That I think will be quite an epic RNS
The results are known but the capital Allocation policy is not. We can only speculate what it might contain based on the massive cash pile and the last Liberum note - "We speculate that a £20m
special could be paid. At 31 Dec 2023 the net cash plus collateral was £4.90
per share."
If this is announced tomorrow then I see a completely new group of investors arriving and who knows what they will do to the SP.