Member Info for ipcutler66

There are certainly some large trades going on soaking up sells, will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks. I noticed that JP morgans short has got a bit smaller as well. Anyway we should see a trading update in the next 10 days or so will be interesting reading as always.

My figure was from YE 24 so yes your figure from the interims is more up to date, looks like they have increased borrowing to £8.3m by H25. No issues at all funding the smart meter instals with borrowing - if my memory serves me correctly their business rationale for the meter expansion is that it will fund itself in the near future from the revenues generated - £1.8m in H125 up from £0.6m in H124

The next sentence in the interims would suggest things are not getting tight : "As a result of ongoing profitability, the Group has made corporate tax payments of £8.3m on account of FY24 and FY25 liabilities" ... If things were tight you don't make tax payments on account.

With operating cashflow increasing by £39.6m in H1 Vs ROC liability of £33.2m for the same period there is net inflow of cash to the business taking into account ROC.

You are correct to say that the ROC payment made in August of £53.1m will reduce cash on hand but it will be higher than your state as there is cash coming in July and August - probably in the region of £12-£14m.

Its the nature of this business that cash builds up Sept-Aug and then the ROC is paid - it helps provide good cash flow and capital (as long as its managed well as YU are doing) for the business.

It certainly isn't all distributable but no-one outside of YU and SEEL know the exact nature of the agreements as the only public record is the covenants at Companies house on the Yu's assets in the event of a default and so it is not worth a debate as neither side will agree on it.

I am very happy with the growing dividend and the long term growth prospects for the company.

@DD - I assume it's a typo when you state a £15m loan funding smart meters as the accounts show a £5m non current liability funding the smart meters...they covered this clearly when they took it out 18 months or so back so not news IMHO

Your comment about PM 's a bit disingenuous DD. It was actually very clear that the sale of some of their shares wasn't a lack of faith, but a necessary move to meet investor demands to exit one of their funds. Gervais Williams remains a massive supporter of YU and continues to post positively about the opportunity. Don't mistake fund administration requirements for a change in conviction!

I agree though on the JPM short it is interesting - but in my opinion it is more than balanced out by Schroeders increasing stake...

Thanks for the heads up on the Cavendish broker note - an interesting read - albeit you have to have Research Tree subscription to get to it - that frustrates me a bit behind the paywall but then I get good value from it in terms of the amount of information there on lots of companies. Will be interesting to see how the next few months roll out into year end but I am still happy with my long term investment here and expect there to be a good upside still on the current share price. At todays price its always nice to top up with a few.

I would guess that the £9m ROC early payment last year must have been at better rates than just base or you just leave the money in the bank, but yes it would be good to see some form of comms on what the longer term plan is....

Remember there is was a £9m prepayment for ROC last year so I think only £45m to pay in August. There is probably about £4.5m cash generated per month so YE cash will be about the £100-£110m. Will be interesting to see if any prepayment for ROC is made this year.

All in all, as it's a on track TU, yes monthly bookings are down due to energy prices normalising offset by good meter point growth.

The company is growing at 10%, maintaining profitability - which I know was one of your concerns as energy prices come down, and will have a large cash pile - some of which may well be tied into the Shell Deal but still earning YU interest.

The market seems to be saying no real news here...so the ball is back in YU's hands to continue delivering growth.

I wonder at what point BK will stop moaning about the share price and take some action.

A solid but fairly predictable TU - on track basically for £710m-£730m YE

Meter growth is going well albeit on lower £/meter due to energy prices

Margin holding up well - Lib have increased their forecast for EBIT FY by 0.3% with PBT stationary at £51.2m with a YE cash pile (after the £54m ROC payment) of £101m

Sales growth +10% - down from forecasted 15% - due to decreasing energy prices but offset by significant meter growth

Bookings/month down due to 2023 high value contracts washing through at new lower energy prices

Meters served up by 47% on H1 24 - looks like they will hit the 120k target easily

EBIT margin 6.7% +0.3% over forecast

Forecasting (Lib) 70p div up 16% on 2024

Good to see a sensible transition taking place for CFO as well and happy with Paul staying on a Non Exec as he knows the business well after the last 8 years.

Happy to hold now for medium term share growth and solid dividend payments.

Lol - I guess you must have predicted the 10% drop in the FTSE / Dow Jones/ DAX etc due to US tariffs :-)

Give it a rest DD - no-one has talked about £100 a share for a seriously long time except you trying to get a rise out of other posters.

There was a good section in the CMD video where this was discussed on the back of a question. YUs view was that their standards they implemented with their brokers would be stronger than any regulation brought in. Can't remember exactly where it was in the video but first quarter of my memory serves me correctly

So someone is cleaning up large volumes of shares. Over 210k added to yesterday's 130k+.

@DD interesting info on PE compared to other firms, will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks.

I find the debate on here really good when we focus on the company - some of which I agree with and some I don't but the differing opinions are important in allowing investors to get a balanced opinion / future prosects.

Sparky - lets try to be civil for a while and have genuine debate on the company so please lets try to cut out the personal comments.

@DD and @Sparky - would it be possible to stop the same conversations going back and forward between the 2 of you - we all know that you have differing opinions on the company - discussion of business points etc is valid and adds value to all but constantly going on at each other about who said what when about the company doesn't add value to other readers of this board and it is a bit disingenuous as it just creates a wave of posts that the majority are not interested in.

DD - I would be careful about making statements so sweeping as the one you just made - they are clear in the 2023 report (20--24 is now available and it is not included in that one) that this is an example graph - if you want to take it any other way that is your choice - I am sure some investors took it as a forecast, but I would not bang on about it given the specific wording used.

As I am sure you have now watched the CMD videos you will have seen that they have a very professional team and setup now - their forecasting, hedging, trading, risk management, debt management etc is approached with the utmost professionalism and that is why I have confidence in the medium to long term for YU's growth at sensible growth rates and margins.

DD - I assume you are referring here to the chart on Page 34 of the 2023 Annual report - if so the words they use are not about Targets it is "In this example, incremental revenues from £50m/month initial bookings would indicatively deliver, in year 3 and from a standing start, £1.3 billion of revenue. Average monthly bookings (right axis) also increase to over

£110m in year 5 as the Group renews contracts". This is pretty clear it is an example of compound growth not a company target. If you have got this from somewhere else that is stated as an actual target then do share.

DD - the £47m I quoted is contracted revenue at the start of 2025 - not a target - actual revenue booked to customers - yes there will be some bad debt in there - but even so there is not much new business needed to get to the £730-760 guidance figures. Income per MwH is bound to be coming down as energy prices have receded from the 2023 highs and those contracts wash through.

@Sparky - January had to be a record breaking month with record levels of contracted revenue booked in for 2025 - equates to circa £47m/month of revenue @£566m. What they didn't indicate was the bookings number but I guess we will have to wait until H1 info later in the year to see that. If they are to get close to the upper end of the forecast (£760M) then most months this year will be record breaking. Should be another exciting year for the company (and the PI's).

@DD - YU made a £9m early ROC payment out of working capital in Q3 2024 (due Aug 25) to secure a discount - they have quite a bit of leeway in WC in my opinion if they are able to take strategic investments like that. Again the section in the CMD gave me confidence in that area.