Member Info for ipcutler66

If Q1 is continuing in the same way as Q4 2023, my estimates for 2024 are circa £700-£720m T/O, EBITDA £50-£52, PAT £38-40m, cash on hand £114-£120m. EPS 240-245 and a divdend of circa 80p. If they then remove the share premium account they will be able to distribute (or share buyback) of at least a further £12m or another 80p/share as a special dividend.

I personally am looking at the £1bn mark going in 2025 at which point EPS is north of 3.30 with PAT north of £50m.

What this means for the share price is anyones guess but if it is on a PE of 10 we are looking £24-£25 this year and £33+ next year. All of this can change quickly if as I suspect is happening an II or HNWI is buying heavily. ( My guess is about 300k shares have gone on worked orders in the last 5 or so trading days)

Anyway good luck all DYOR

Check out the YE report (March 19th) - Dividend due of 37p ex div date of May 30th - FY @ 4.86 x earnings cover. New Capital Allocation Policy states that dividends will increase so that they 3x earnings cover. My expectation is that this will lead to a 70p+ dividend for FY2024 based on TO in region of £680-£710m and PBT of £42-£45m with cash on hand in excess of £115m. YU has been demonstrating good management and solid growth above expectations for the last 3 years.

The Liberum note makes a clear statement on Q1 trading being strong so I expect it to have continued at least as well as Q4 23 (£55m bookings / month)

it is mainly an update of the 19th march with added detail from the yu year end company report. maintains a conservative buy at 2050p, £680m to for fy24, ebitda £43m, net cash in excess of £112m, a dividend of 48.9p, eps of 186. all pretty conservative in my opinion but it is always better for the broker to come in under and yu to smash their numbers out of the park as they have done for the last 2 years.

an interesting new section in the report is they have now is their sam analysis -

"yü group has a summary score of 10 and is ranked number 1 out of the 270 uk covered in liberum sam. all three scores are top *****ile and the revisions momentum chart is a thing of beauty. yü group is one of only 7 stocks that has had revisions momentum above the 9th decile for 24 months in a row out of 3800 global stocks covered, so rarified air indeed."

Yep, I think that there is definitely an HNWI or II buying now 2 days on the trot at 1485 with 140k shares - almost 1% of the company. All it will take is some other buyers to come in and the SP will move north. I wonder whether they will be back tomorrow for another 70k....

I wouldn't be surprised to see a further 70k shares after hours again

@SNN very similar to my musings for the year ahead. £41m of PAT equates to circa 80p dividend based on 3x earnings cover. Assuming the share premium capital is cancelled that will also allow for either a further distribution of about 70p or buying back a large number of shares - or a combo of both. Looks like another cracking year is ahead as long as YU continue to grow and deliver the 50% growth they anticipate.

@sheltie - SP Angel cover them and their update is available now. TP of 1900p more conservative than Liberum but again have upgraded all numbers

Sounds like it was very productive use of your time, any mention that it was being recorded for general release?

With over 40,0000 shares traded in the first 12 minutes that's you take... interesting. If you are right and all the traders are gone that's great news for the investors here.

So level 2 is opening up and first buy of the day is 1000 @1470p - Bid - 1400 Ask 1480 - going to be a fun morning...

So liberums update is out - all their estimates have been beaten and they have raised the Target price to 2050p with a buy rating. As usual they are being conservative with 2024 figures of £680m TO.

@Sparky - the proposed cancelation of the share premium account is NOT a share buy back. It is an accounting entry that covers the premium paid above the value. It cannot be used for much except for costs of share issues etc but crucially NOT dividend payments. They propose to cancel this account (which is perfectly legal) and then they will be able to distribute a further £11.9m

Tomorrow morning at 7am the FY23 results will be published and almost certainly the capital allocation policy will be included. As discussed below their house broker has suggested a £20m dividend distribution will be put in place. That I think will be quite an epic RNS

The results are known but the capital Allocation policy is not. We can only speculate what it might contain based on the massive cash pile and the last Liberum note - "We speculate that a £20m

special could be paid. At 31 Dec 2023 the net cash plus collateral was £4.90

per share."

If this is announced tomorrow then I see a completely new group of investors arriving and who knows what they will do to the SP.

@Sparky - my guestimate of free cash of £40m as of year end is based on the approx £80m less £20m for ROC (a further £5m or so will be due on monies from Jan-Mar but that is not included in FY23 figures), £20m reserve.... leaving approx £40m free cash as of now. ( will be higher due to Jan- mar profit but that should not be taken into account for now in my opinion but assessed come September and interim / mid year figures.

@bodrunchie - what do you think YU will do with the circa £40m+ free cash if they only distribute £4.5m as divis?

@SNN I agree that the market has currently priced in known news, but until YU declare their capital allocation policy there is only speculation. If it does contain a fixed divi policy (based on EPS) AND a distribution of free cash then for me that changes the game from where we are and so that is why I think it will be the catalyst for the next set of investors to come on board and with such a low free float an increase in MC and PE.

So we are now 1 trading day away from YU's FY23 results and a possible special dividend.

Liberum (the house broker) in the update on 23/02 suggested a possible £20m special dividend alongside a 17p FY dividend as well as hopefully confirming the Capital Allocation policy. Hopefully this will confirm that genuine free cash will be distributed as special dividends and FY dividends will be paid at 10% of EPS.

If this is the case then YU is looking like a great buy for INCOME investors - both Private and institutions . Why do I think this? If we get a FY23 17p divi and then they distribute £20m (this equates to circa £1.20 per share as near as dammit) then the total dividend for FY23 will come in at £1.40 (inc. the 3p paid at interim).

This is a yield of 10.61%. (£1.40/£13.40 - Fridays closing price)

Add to this great looking growth prospects for FY24 and it will be an easy option for income investors to take a look at and then hopefully come on board.

With a small free float this could be the time for a proper rerate. At twice Fridays close of £26.40 Yu would be paying a 4.55% yield - which is still pretty good for an AIM listed utility with great growth prospects and the PE would still only be in the upper teens.

Anyway I am looking forward to Tuesday and am hopeful that a decent special dividend is paid this time.

DYOR and good luck to all LTH

Sorry not 1305 posts :-) just 54 but a member since 2020...

Really a novis sharholder with 1305 posts..... maybe as sparky says - or it might be nothing to do with a fund - could be an investor moving stocks between brokers... loads of possible reasons but we can only speculate.