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Wow, just read it, YU are saying 100k meters at YE24, if they do that Liberum are saying FD EPS of 242 and TO based on this year's numbers of circa £10k/meter of £1bn that is way higher than even my wildest guestimates.
I would tend to agree and it's more and more shares in sticky long term hands and away from the traders.
Couldn’t agree more with your musings SNN.
I over called the figures as well but am now beginning to wonder what the substantial cash war chest is going to be used for if it’s not going to be distributed back as dividends. Especially as they are about to fund the meter installs with debt financing.
They have left themselves some nice room to exceed the current brokers forecasts but I think we may now see a pattern whereby the broker updates are much closer to reality. I wonder if they are thinking about a move to the main market….
I agree on the dividend, as I have said before I am looking for at least 10p but preferably 15p - giving out between £1.7 and £2.5m - even if they invest £1.5m in the meter division, this would still leave cash in the coffers from the H1 profit.
If we get 15p then the SP may well take off as it will signal the intent to distribute genuine spare cash back to the shareholders. When the company gets to £500m+, which may be sooner rather than later, at current margin rates that could be upwards of 75p/share per year.....food for thought as we would then definitely see dividend investors arrive.
That's a good award to win, it will help exposure of the company.
It will be very interesting tomorrow, I have been surprised with no TU but I am now thinking that after last year when they did a TU early September the SP spiked before H1 results so perhaps they are just rolling with the performance is in line with the last update - H1 in July that showed a 50%+ meter gain so if that has continued in Q3 we are in for some very big numbers come year end.
I am still looking for £200-220m tomorrow - anything in that range for TO and things are on track and blowing the brokers away again.....can't wait till 7am now
That's a good award to win, it will help exposure of the company.
It will be very interesting tomorrow, I have been surprised with no TU but I am now thinking that after last year when they did a TU early September the SP spiked before H1 results so perhaps they are just rolling with the performance is in line with the last update - H1 in July that showed a 50%+ meter gain so if that has continued in Q3 we are in for some very big numbers come year end.
I am still looking for £200-220m tomorrow - anything in that range for TO and things are on track and blowing the brokers away again.....can't wait till 7am now
I am expecting a TU next Tuesday, as I am certain that the H1 performance has continued and so the brokers numbers for the FY23 are way too low. YU has a duty to inform the market if they are way ahead of expectations and they will have 2/3rds of Q3 figures by now.
The number of large sales 10k shares+ over the last week without the buy/sell price changing much makes me think that there is definitely a new buyer in town and the MMs are filling a significant order....I wonder if we will see a TR1 before the end of the month......
What makes me think we will see a TU is I suspect they are way ahead of brokers figures as they were last September when they released a TU prior to H1 numbers, but we are all just having our best guess. Either way I expect to see the back of £12 with the H1 numbers
It might take a while to move upwards again but with a TU, in my opinion, due by Sept 12th to confirm continued growth above market expectations we will push past the £10 mark and onward towards a realistic market valuation.
It's good to see that the SP has continued to rise on pretty good volumes in advance of what I think will be a TU on or before Sept 12th to update the markets on the continued stellar performance in Q3 prior to the H1 for al results on Sept 26th. If as I am expecting TO in H1 is in excess of £220m then I fully expect to see the brokers rerate to £14-£15 at least and then FY23 numbers in the region of £500m+.
It's a good time to be a YU holder -DYOR
So my take on the TU, key for me was the 50% increase in meter points, I was hoping for 30k meters not nearly 40k and keeping cash conversion high means these are good quality customers coming on board so bad debt will come down and free up cash provision.
This bodes well for H223 and 2024.
My original estimate of £220m at about 4% EBITDA looks to be on the low side now for H1 so that is really pleasing.
I think H1 will come in now about £235-£245m with just above 4% EBITDA. FY23 I am now putting at £530-550m.
This leaves a good pot of money, which I am pretty certain they will start distributing as dividends over the next 12-18 months as a progressive policy. I am confident that we will see at least 15p interim - a 5 fold increase on FY22, and then a final dividend taking the total to about 50p for FY23. I suspect they may have the cash for more but as I have said before I think the management team want to be very prudent with how they handle the development of the company given the history.
Anyway I am now expecting the share price to rise slowly over the next few months in advance of the official H1 results at the end of September and then we wait and see if and what dividend announcement comes out.
My short term target is now firmly set at £10 with longer term towards the £13-15 mark.
We will see a lot of trading here now but it doesn't concern me at all, it's good that the market is now more active and interested - and there are PIs that want or need to take profits.
I agree SNN, the TU was an exceptional read, can't remember when I saw a company post such a great set of numbers. Will mull over everything else and post an update later as am away in the USA at present
An irrelevant post as YU only deals with businesses not household energy.
I am hoping for the same info in the TU as last year's H1 - a good summary to work from whilst waiting for the full numbers in September.
The number of meter points is key to showing growth now, they have the company set up for profitable growth but need to deliver new customers moving forward without too much cost....which I think they must be doing based off the May TU.
I tend to agree with you, but I believe that YU management will be cautious at the H1 23 figures see out the year and hopefully deliver £500m this year and then make a final dividend of 20-30p after the FY23 numbers are out next March.
Yes it is going to be really interesting, after the May 31st TU I am expecting TO in the region of 220m with about 4% EBITDA. This would equate to about £8m, a chunk of which YU will set aside for the decreasing bad debt and tax as they are cautious but I am hoping for an interim Dividend in the region of 15p - about £2.6m. This amount would be a hefty 5 fold increase on 2022 FY and send a clear message on future dividend policy / growth.
We won't find out about the dividend until September though I suspect.
The TU confirms that YU are on track for a bumper FY23, in excess of £430m. We have seen this pattern before on the way up from £2-£4 and £4-£6 - there will always be traders taking profits of 20-30% and why not. But once the £4.9-£5.6 buyers are gone then this will move quickly upwards towards the £7-£8. My expectation on the H1 results is a price between £8-£9, it may drop back then as it has done before. What will be interesting is what they are planning on doing with the cash pile ...an acquisition or a significant increase in dividend - could be very interesting come September and a potential interim divi.....
No there is no official information but with the 20 day Long term incentive plan 20 day timeframe ending on Thursday next week I suspect we will get an rns on Friday confirming the 100% vesting. Whether they then share any more interesting news on Q1 who knows....
Just rechecked and correcting myself - its 500p to get 100% so I doubt they will need to issue a trading update unless the price continues its downward spin.