focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
January is the next scheduled TU, there may be one before then if results / info demand it, e.g. results to be above the current market expectations of £425m TO and £33.5m EBITDA. (taken from current Liberum broker note)
Yep the market is funny like that, I have nothing against traders making money on the £1-2 trading range we have been in, everyone has there own approach and YU is nothing but predictable if you look back at the patterns. But when the TU drops it will respond very quickly.
I tend to agree with SNN on the dividend Vs share buy back. If YU want a higher share price then distribute £8m back to the share holders and bingo the price will go through the roof. If they are serious about getting ii’s on board then having a lower free float does not facilitate that, just makes it harder (unless BK sells some of his but I don’t think that is likely anytime soon). There is no value is issuing more shares as the company has too much cash as it stands…. Either way it is going to be an interesting run in to Year end…. Only 5 weeks.
Without an RNS would be surprised if they let anything slip on performance but you never know.
Would be interested to know the attendance though
Nice summary of the ii day yesterday but no new real info as that has to come through an RNS. Good to see coverage on the scalability (current overheads cover the 2024 plan) and risk management working well. I wonder if we will see the TU next week as we did last year...
One thing has just sprung to mind about their definition of a progressive dividend policy...is there any intention to have special dividends at any time to distribute extra spare cash the business has or are there other plans for that.....
Sorry been offline all day, thanks Gacky for the offer and hope you have a great day. Everything I would have asked has been put forward by SNN and Sparky.
I tend to agree about a TU tomorrow, as then they have new info they can share with the II's but I wouldn't rule one out definitively if they are a bit cagey tomorrow with answers....
Anyway have a good day and look forward to the update.
@sparky - Ironman / LSE have deleted the original post, all that is happening now is a good rational discussion board is getting a bit out of kilter - which is exactly what he wants - to hide the well researched and good quality posts on YU and how well the company is doing. Let's look forward to FY23 figures of £33m+ EBITDA and 2034 TO in excess of £700m.
My best guess would be if they are on track for greater than £20m ( circa 5%) more TO or £1m more EBITDA than the current broker notes they would need to update as that would then materially different. The unknown is next year's forecasts are way out but does that matter now at present, it's this year's numbers that are key. Either way it's going to be a fun run into year-end again....
It will be interesting as to when or whether a TU is coming out this year. At present the Liberum brokers note from end of September has YE figures of £425m and 2024 TO of £568m. If what YU said at the investor sessions at the start of October is correct and they have been booking £50m+ per month of annualised contracts this year then 2024 will already have between £550-600m booked at the start of the year.... That in my view requires a TU to update the market officially as to what 2024 is likely to bring (my own view is in excess of £700m) as well as where 2023 will end up as I suspect it is higher than the £425 currently expected. After the investor visits seems to make sense to me as well so will be an interesting few weeks ahead.
@sparky - nothing to worry about really, we have seen this type of drop before and I am sure we will again. We have been given the expected contract revenue fo next year at between £550-£600m and with this year expected to close at somewhere north of £420m it's clear where the company is going. I do find it puzzling that we are getting small volume sales but can only assume it is PIs trying to trade the stock and again we have seen how when a TU drops or a HNWI starts buying they very quickly loose out.
It will be interesting to see where we open on Monday as there were 32k shares reported after 16:15, all of which could be buys or a mix of buys / sells. My gut feel is buys but wont know ill Monday....
Quite a few stop losses being triggered I suspect.... but no worries as by year end we all know where we will be.
Yep just watched it again as well, those were pretty much my take homes too. Was good to see Bobby and Paul confirm what has already been said by them and brokers.
I suspect as well that FY EBITDA will be closer to £40m than £33 given the big hint they made today and if so a TU end of Nov early Dec will be on the cards to confirm.
The confirmation of the contract book for 2024 at between £550 and £600m was awesome as well.
If it's all one buyer then they still have a way to go to get to the 3% - circa 510k - unless it's not a new player....
Would be good to have more independent holders>3% but that's one of the factors in companies with fewer free shares.
I wonder whether BK might consider selling some to a big institutional Investor and at what price....
Yet another £400k+ buy there is definitely someone buying up any shares being sold now. Wonder when they will stop and where the price will be then....
I completely agree, I have for now dropped my spreadsheet as well as the growth coming though is so uncertain in a positive way.
I will wait now until the next TU, either year end or I suspect an update end Nov / early Dec with updated guidance on year end numbers.
For me the key message coming though from the company and the brokers is that significant growth is here to stay and big revenue is coming in 2024 / 25.
From the way the market is reacting with some serious buying occuring it's going to be a fun ride from here to year end and onwards.
So I have been crunching some numbers to see whether the £1bn is achievable next year and how it stacks up to this year.
Assuming that H2 23 delivers the same £51m/ mth contracted revenue then YU will enter 2024 with £568m ish contracted revenue. (£368m at end of August plus 4 months @£50m - I would expect numbers in H2 though but being prudent)
If they then just deliver the same volume next year (£51m /month of new annualised contract wins / month) and prorata the monthly contract wins each month then that should deliver the £568+£51+47+ etc to give a FY TO in the region of £890m...
So if you then factor in bad debt at 3% - £27m - YU would need growth of £127m or so to get to the magic £1bn figure.
Assuming they deliver £425m this year that's circa 30% growth..... I wonder if they can deliver that..... if they do then the EPS at 242 would be crazy
Another day more large after hours buys reported. A further 20k from Thursday and one 35k shares worth £400k today. Someone is buying up all the spare shares out there.
Wow, just read it, YU are saying 100k meters at YE24, if they do that Liberum are saying FD EPS of 242 and TO based on this year's numbers of circa £10k/meter of £1bn that is way higher than even my wildest guestimates.