Member Info for Ibiza28

Researchandhold

Very interested in your short term prediction. But can we for the moment take V1 results out of the picture and assume worst ie a duster or non commercial find.

Am i right in thinking you reckon that LP would be SP of 7/8p and DQE news around 15p and then something like 25/30p middle of next year.

Must admit my reckoning was LP would be around 15p and DQE news around 22p with V1 coming in plus others to around the 30p mark depending on the news. Then next year ex V1 and dependant on oil prices around the 35p figure.

I think we should be checking our shares on the Mongolian stock exchange for any large transactions over the next few days.

I tell you one thing when the SPC arrives no one is going to accuse the MG off rushing things that is for sure.

You remember the play far better than I do but absolutely similar but I better Godot got there quicker.

Continued ( Sorry about the delay i got called away)

2) V1 needs to hit and V2 support the findings. According to MB this should have a 20% CoS but in the hands of my Austrailian Car salesman this would probably be 40% with lines like the "phones ringing off the hook". I think the chances of success because of its proximity to other known and active wells is far greater than 20% but MB does want to over sell it.

This has been a pretty torrid time for the world over the last few years and for Mongolia who is desperately trying to establish a firm platform of democracy and i hope transparency and a yet try and maintain like all good politicians do the populist vote along with covid lock downs and more to point the severity of the chines lock down. I know of people who live in China and the stories i hear of Covid and Covid restrictions is frightening and nothing was going to happen any way with DQE till they re opened their borders anyway.

In the meantime the yet to be fully announced JV on renewables is expected to coming through at some point soon i think. Waiting for EL and V1 result.

We have been led to understand there may also be a possibility f a wind renewables at some point. Now maybe this is what the IoM meeting was about. It would need a lot of cash for the turbines etc hence the financier being in that meeting. But again all supposition still. But there is substance to all of this.

My personal view is that the Petro Matad Energy is for precisely that energy otherwise why not call itself what it is ie Petro Matad Renwables a far more attractive a name in the modern era. I think that PM Energy is for Gas and is hoped rather than expected and down the line. A bit like a new couple making up the room for the baby they will have when they get married. A long way off yet but things could move quickly.

Finally there are times when you need a CEO who bangs his fist on the table and shouts at all and sundry. And there are those who are quiet and seem demonstrative but a lot more deceptive that that. MB is not the first and neither is he the second but somewhere in the middle. And very possibly will prove to be the right person to have seen this through. Someone throwing tea cups at the wall of the Mongolian ministers and prime ministers and shouting and threatening all kinds of things was never ever going to get anything and we would almost certainly have lost the lot. Could he have been firmer yes very possibly.

Personally i am convinced this is a long play. So i will be cashing out at the right time and hoping to leave a few in too see what happens. No i am not going predict the £1 share or am going to predict dividends, too much to happen between now and then. I think there will be a share issue raise but i think it will come at a far higher base price than at present.

I am hoping to get out with what i want and still leave a few in the mix to see what will happen. GLA

Like some people here i have been in a for while and compared with many i would just classify as a newbie. However i have been here through thick (not much of that) and a lot of thin (plenty of that). I came in with Share issue of 700m and always reckoned it would be diluted and worked my figures out on a billion share issue. At the moment it is 1.1bn a bit more than i had in mind but i do not think that V1 or size of it was really being talked about. IT was mainly Heron. We were waiting for the Exploitation License that arrived and the share went beserk for a short time and the clever ones worked out that was a good time to sell and derisk. I wish i had but i am in for a fair few. Once the LP arrives my basic targer will almost certainly be met but what i would really like and feels it owes me after all this time is about twice that number.and i really think it is achievable. Reading Positive Research you would think so but i have severe doubts about paid management consultants and that is what they effectively are.

So what has kept me here is MB. Yes i know the MB that everyone is tearing their hair out over and believe me i have done the same, and that is why there is so little of it left and not much of the same colour either. But through all of this malachy what this company needed is a calm collected voice whilst everyone else ran around like headless chickens albeit headless chickens in a position of power. My other reason is that the last O&G company i was involved in were run by a couple of Aussies (one of whom was not better than the Austrailan equivalent of a second hand car salesman. He over sold chances of things happening and i think MB is the complete opposite. I think he knows where he is guiding this company and although he has given low odds on achieving it i think may actually get there and that was sim;ply a small to medium sized O&G exploiter explorer. Now with events that is no longer the target or should i say sole target. I think with time this has changed to including renewables and i think it may well come to having something for Gas as well.

A lot of people are annoyed that he has not told us more about the IoM meeting. MB got well and truely caught out on this one and was not expecting the amount of deep research some people on here went to. I believe we will get fully informed about the IoM meeting in time and is something he has lined up with the government (another sign he is being trusted and relied upon) And in time this is what is going to turn Matad into a very valuable long term player.

Do not get me me wrong a lot of things need to come together and happen not least of all the

1) LP, which for what is worth will come next Monday but i have never been right yet so this will be no surprise if i am

wrong.

see next post.

Https://www.petromatadgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/MATD-20230614-Velociraptor-1-spuds.pdf

I have just found this on co website does not really add anything we did not already know Progressive Research just re affirming what they had already said.

As someone on here suggested if we hit at V1 then this share could reach 40p fairly quickly with out it, it should reach 26p mind you as the company personal organ on this I would be inclined to discount some of these figures.

Yes that is my understanding V2 would be an appraisal well for V1 should it strike. It is if you like an optional extra you take it if you feel V1 is successful. I think how ever a sign they have prepared for it now already is an indication they believe they will hit. Normally they would do another raise to do the appraisal well this time they raised both in one go. I think a sign of confidence. Who knows.

Congratulations to the Mongolian Government. they potentially one of the largest oil field under their feet and because they have dragged their heels on LP issues absolutely no one is interested in V1 other than an esoteric interest other than us. This is no longer a binary share it is an all or nothing share unless the LP lands in a decent time before result. Now if V1 comes through and the LP (and we deserve a bit of luck here) this will not be a 3 or 4 bagger it will be 10 bagger and possibly more. The down side is there is no company. But then why set up with PM a second company if the government do not want to play ball on the first. I am still hopeful because of this.

MB is not a CEO for shouting from the roof tops and hyping a share and i feel his 20% CoS is not a 4/1 shot in any other CEOs hands so in many respects having seen / heard this from other CEOs. My favourite one was "phone is ringing off the hook". My reckoning is that MBs phone is ringing off the hook but he is not telling anyone and therefore getting anyones ho;pes up too high. YEs the derampers will say only a 20% CoS why bother.

My answer why bother get out of bed in the morning when the weather is awful. Why did man go outside his cave if he felt he would not survive. The reason is that some people enjoy the excitement of it all and to benefit from it if successful.

This will come through one way or another and personally the sooner the better but i still have time in my locker for it. Assuming the big boys have not got cold feet waiting (probably got backdoor access to MB directly) then this will explode.Mind you like you want to catch it on the way up as it will fall back significantly before settling. GLA

I pretty sure there will be a raise it is just at what price there will be a raise at. After all the staff have all got to get paid and it will take a bit of time to get the cash rolling on Heron. I do not think the raise will come before the LP lands and may even go through to September if there is enough to last that long. The question is when the LP lands and i accept to the doubters if the LP lands. My opinion is when and not if although there are still a couple of hurdles still to be jumped. The ministries themselves and then the Cabinet itself which assuming we do not blot our copy book before then should be a foregone conclusion. So question is when it comes before cabinet. I am not going to fall into trap of giving definite dates but ruling out today as too soon for cabinet discussion otherwise i think MB might have mentioned it and possibly delayed the RNS to receive letter tomorrow or Friday. So not 14th that then moves us to 21st again a possibility but not more than that but given rate of knots or rather lack of knots that the MG moves this is very unlikely. It is a possible but more likely a probable not. Then there is 28th Wednesday a far stronger possibility assuming the departments can get their act together in two weeks. To my mind this is a stronger possibility but I would not bet my mortgage on it which moves us to 5th July and about a week before any expected announcement of VI. This would give a week before the announcement and about three weeks from now. The problem here is if VI is a duster it is around this time i would expect to hear it and to have these two bits of news together could have serious negative impact on the SP although you would expect that the good news should out weigh the negative. But technically a full week before the 30 day TD date given on the RNS spud date. What i will venture to say is that LP should be here before VI is concluded.

I am not quite sure why this has to be discussed at cabinet level. I thought it had been decided and signed off by Minister in Charge now MMHI or am i missing something here.

I have a couple of questions for those who know more about oil drills than i do as i have only been invested in two others.

From what i gather this like many others will be a "tight drill" in that will be some kind of embargo on leaking. Really have to say i am not sure how this is going to work. This is not an off shore rig where everyone is isolated for weeks at a time but on shore and i am sure some of the workers will be locals who go home at night. Personally i think something will get leaked either through them or if there is a strike early i reckon you would find it difficult to muzzle the MG from opening their collective mouths. Far too big for MG to ignore imo if V1 strikes in the way it is hoped.

Ignoring all of that and assuming that somehow MB maintains a "tight drill" if he says it will take 30 days to drill does that mean the RNS comes out on the 30th day. Or does it only come out on 30th day if they have not found oil up till the 27th day allowing 3 days to wrap up and conversely if they strike oil or what they believe to be a decent find (unappraised) would they not have to announce it much earlier as it would be pointless carrying on drilling if they already know there is oil there. The lack of drilling would surely be noticed not to mention word getting out as mentioned earlier. So my argument is that the closer we get to 30 days (or whatever the time period is) without an RNS giving news the more likely it is to be a duster. So my point is the 30 days from spud is for guidance purposes only and absolutely no indication of any thing other than a duster the closer to the date we get and even then not terrible indicative as DQE and MB are going to throw money away once they have drilled into the final seam as to chances of finding anything. Basically someone tell me how the hell do you keep information / rumours from slipping out.

We have a few people on the ground out there i believe and would hope they may be find their way over to V1 for a few days late into the drill give us a heads up here.

Sometime i can be a cynic and a suspicious cynic and my guess is we will know when the LP is coming when we get a number of 1 or 2m or more buys coming through. It will mean MB has let his cronies know in the city know what is on the way. It will not be long but it could be an afternoon or even most of a day that the share goes wild before the RNS drops. I would say insider trading but city would say boys in the know nudge nudge wink wink.

Let us not get too excited all that is happening is this share is returning back to where it was a few weeks ago and what it should be. When it starts to get to new territory or relatively new territory of 7p plus then let us start getting excited. But it does confirm what we have all known and that share responds very quickly to a bit of action in the market. So if the LP does land during the next week do not be at all surprised if we see a 5 banger from here in very short period of time possibly as short as 24 - 48 hours. But as someone said if it goes up fast it could come down fast.

I am still in and have been for some time. Just occasionally i have de risked and will probably do so again before V1 hits TD and hope to bring my average down considerably and in one case mean i am carrying for free.

However given the recent free fall in the shares i rather wish i had not add a few bob at 4.4p and waited another couple of days and come in at below 4 but that is life.

I have also been tempted to get partially out but then i think what has changed is there any news from anywhere of any solidity re the LP. So this is taking a long time and despite being told it was imminent back in December or early Jan and here we are almost entering the 3rd qiarter and no sign. That does not mean it is not coming just means it is taking longer than expected. MB said the MG were wanting to do this so there are never again any similar issues or problems in the future. To a large degree i have been comforted over the MB MG meeting in IoM recently and format of a new company although we do not know the share structure but to me it means a co-operation between PM (with a substantial Mongolian influence already with Petrovis who own 23% or something like that) and the MG government. I do not see anything sinister is MB going to IoM as some on here are suggesting.

Lastly i slightly comforted by the fact there is no news on V1 as yet. A bit like the dog that did not bark during the knight. MB is really expecting this arrive any day now that he is delaying the start of the V1 to the last possible minute before we run out of time on the rig. This might be because he has absolutely no idea when it is going to arrive and is just praying to god it comes in time or it is becasue he has a very good idea as to when it will arrive and is saving the V1 spud till that has come.

Quite frankly you take your pick Black you stay , Red you leave. IT is entirely your decision and yours alone but would not take your advice from this BB. Personally i read all the comments and occasionally re read the RNS s and listern to MB on LSE progarmmes. GLA

My thinking is if the MM's are still prepared to buy your share do not sell unless you absolutely have to. It means the MMs reckon they can easily sell them on and still believe themselves this will come good..

As regards the second company being set up and no news. i am not surprised by this the only bit that is a surprise is having a chunk of the senior politicians from the MG there at the same time. At the moment MB is "keeping this secret" not because he is hiding anything but because there is nothing to tell. It is just an idea an avenue of thought that he and the MG have had and decided to open a company to be able to facilitate it more quickly. It might remain dormant for years alternatively it might well happen sooner than any of us can know. But because of the silence on all other fronts this share is expecting and waiting on the LP. It is really time the Mongolian PM got his team together and knocked a few heads together this is just taking far too long. Someone has to take charge and control. NOW.

Just as a matter of interest are we certain the LP needs Cabinet approval does it just not need sign off by the Minister in charge of that department ie MMHI. If so we do not need to wait for next cabinet meeting which are probably held once a week.

I agree i can almost taste it as well. I feel this could be a very exciting and hopefully profitable few months. Personally i think the silence is because he knows this is tantalisingly close.

I think the interesting bit is the no news around the spudding f of V1. I was expecting a raft of news around the equipment the team timescales depth etc etc and yet we have had very very little. Either MB has changed his mind and forgotten to tell us or i think more likely he knows the LP is imminent and is delaying everything for that to arrive. He knows what would happen if the failed at V1 and were still waiting for the LP and is expecting this to arrive very shortly. Better not wait too long because the equipment is due else where not to mention it hanging around on a daily basis.

The problem is that everyone here is clueless. We are clueless because MB is clueless and at the moment the MG are coming over as clueless. It is a classic case of the blind leading the blind. It is not being helped by having an Ambassador in Mongolia who is now doing his final lap of honour and probably not wanting to upset apple carts not that he tilted too many in the first place and new Ambassador who almost certainly does not know us from Adam and quite frankly probably does not care. The only one who should know who we are is the Ambassador to Court of St James in London but has probably decided that despite new company we are too small at the moment to worry about.

If this is the case then it is simple we hit at Raptor and the LP will come in days we fail at Raptor LP could take a month of Sundays. One turns us into a medium oil and gas company almost overnight the other turns us another small one horse dog and bone show.

It is becoming a stick or twist option and if you missed the price a couple of weeks ago it is rapidly turning into a no alternative option of holding. I am hoping for an RNS tomorrow failing that we need something from MB to keep this share on track. We just cannot be left with no information otherwise this share will collapse a level that would make 2.5p placing look like luxury.