Member Info for Ibiza28

I think we need something from MB but having said that i am not sure what he could say that would improve the situation as anything less than dynamic, positive and unequivical could be seen as a negative effect on the share price and we certainly do not need it going any further down.

The problem i have is that we do not know if no news is "Good news"

No news is " No one has a clue what is going on"

No news "Bad news"

I am ruling out the latter for now as I believe that MB would have informed us of any change of scenario.. So that leaves the Good News it is all progressing but at an exceeding slow pace..

The alternative is that no news means no one has an idea as to what is going on and why..And no one is prepared to admit they have lost control.

By end of next week if no news i am hoping that central goverrnement with step in and sort this mess out once and for all.

Does anyone have any idea as to when local governement sits and when and how decisions are reached. Do they make the decision or does it get referred back to the people. What are these "formatlies"

One persons formalities is another persons Red Tape and i really do not know what we are expecting and from whom.

I know some smart ass here will say a signed document from x but then why a month to sign a ;piece of paper. i think there is a lot more to this than that and i am not sure if even the lcoal government know what to do next.

Getting concerned

Big boys

Maybe you are right maybe the big boys have been and gone. Maybe they were never there but alternatively maybe they are still there but keeping everything dry until they know that we have got full permissions. On the kind of deal we seem to have with the MG plus Oil at $80 a barrel and the amount that we have then it is very possible the big funds are going to come in. But only when we have the permit. The question is whether they come in immediately on news or wait till we get on operations update about flow rates and conversion time from getting oil to surface to money in the bank. This i think is why some people here are incredibly optimistic about a very rapid re rate on this share. If they do not come in this share will re rate but will probably take time. Be honest if a couple of pension funds started get interested in this stock as a small part of their portfolio this share would catapult very quickly. If my calculations are right we could get to point of being able to declare a dividend before end of 2024 but i would like us to start drilling sooner rather than later to bring the variables down in those calculations.

DQE agreement

I would like to think that this has been all tied up and basically agreed. The only thing holding this back is the Land Permit. The reason this is holding it back other than just simple access is that one thing the agreement would have is a start date and we cannot do start dates until we have a permit. I would hope there will be two RNS's around the same time maybe one at 7.00 and the other around Midday with the DQE maybe even earlier. The delay will only be because MB has to confirm things with DQE once permit is approved. That is why there has been no DQE announcement because there is not known start date. IMO

The question i want answered is whether there is a clause or an agreed understanding that we cannot sell on the Heron field should we so desire. This agreement or lack of it could add significantly to the SP.

Basically assuming the total field comes as i think i have read about 2.2bn barrels an average price per barrel of say $1 gives us a SP of approx £1.50 per share and this multiplies up on a linear basis.

However i think part of this was answered in the RNS at the end or around the end of May regarding bonus shares to staff being issued at the end of year 1 2 and 3 respectively inorder to keep staff incentivised. I cannot see MB doing this for staff and then effectively selling everything on before the staff get a benefit. So i suppose i have answered my own question there is a clause or implied understanding that we do not sell on the field or at least until refinery comes into place after that it may change. Mind you i could be wrong.

It is the timing of the cash flows that is important and not when the year end balance sheet date is. So as far as i am concerned the cash flow is the cash flow and will be as soon as we are able after the "formalities" are sorted.

Subby77

Initially fueled by MMs my thinking and also FOMO would come in. Afterall we are expecting news. I am hoping for next week but then again it maybe the following week but it is due soon that is for sure. There may even have been a leak who knows.

WOS you need to take a chill pill. You are getting far too worked about very little. Just take a bit of time to read people posts rather than jumping in beak first and you will realise what people are saying.

Chill out

I do not understand your argument. You seem to be saying that on the one hand the state government has no control but then you indicate prison terms if the local government turn them down or impedes.

"State Govt is NOT in charge anymore here & very important point to understand."

"Also now law in place if you OBSTRUCT Central Govt then you can have prison term."

If the state government is NOT in charge how can they impose prison sentences if you obstruct them.

Either they are in control or they are not in control.

If they are not in control what is there is stop the local province from rejecting the rubber stamping of the formalities. The issue of making this a project of National importance would indicate that the State Government and by that i mean the Government of Mongolia and not the local province.

MB will tell us the near future once the "formalities" have been sorted out. This is now out of his control (if it ever was) and the regions final destiny could well be decided by the state government.

I was wondering how much PC are into DQE interms of control and how much China is into PC in terms of control. If the answer is not much then PC will be getting very little out this massive oil field in Mongolia. If it is a reasonable amount of control that PC has on DQE"politically" and financially then they will eventually get some of the pie.. But may well want more.

However one thing i would really like know is whether there is prevention clause or any such agreement preventing a sale to PC or any other company that maybe interested. Personally i think there probably is or something like you "Sell to PC over our dead body" from the MG that is the quid pro quo of having the MG on your side (eventually). If there is not anything could happen because i am sure i heard or read somewhere that MB would make sure PC paid top dollar. Somebody on here i think will remember when that was i think in a presentation at some time but would not swear to it. or in what context it was said. GLA

Whilst we keep on bickering here because there is nothing else to talk about much as everyone might try. The price of oil is continuing to rise now to just under 84usd a barrel. This could be very timely. I know that our price will be more likely linked to the price China is paying Russia but that should also be linked ultimately to POO on the world markets.

We can only go by what MB has been saying consistently not just once that all things are in order to proceed in a very short space of time once the problem of the Land Permit / Special Permit has been cleared up. Let us just hope all that holds good as i am hoping this LP will be finalised next week. But we will see. As some one pointed out the LG maybe back at work but that does not mean the relevant bodies to deal with this are not still on holiday. As ever with this share just a bit more patience is required. But will admit it is pushing every ones patience.

As regards RNS's i think there are a raft of them to come once it has been established we can operate and function in Mongolia and hopefully all of that can be put to bed once and for all next week. I am hoping.

The question is would we have had to worry about all of this if Petro China had not made their drilling sites to resemble 3rd world refugee camps but then we also do not know what backhanders PC have issued out to members of LG to try and obfuscate and obscure our Permit.

This is rapidly becoming the next children's joke

"When is a door not a door" A " When is a jar".

When is a Special Land Permit not a Special Land Permit A When it issued by the Mongolian Govenrment.

The door will become a door again when it is shut and the SLP will become a SLP when the "formalities" are concluded.

At which point i will stop making childish jokes on this and hopefully watch my investment rise. GLA

Not sure if completely relevant or matters but i see China have appointed a new Foreign Minister. Might affect things in Mongolia but to be honest they have bigger issues to deal with ie Russia and the US.

Once we get over this hurdle i would hope we will hit double digits within that one day about 110% rise should be doable for this share in a day. The question is when the next tree shake will happen and how long it will last.

I am waiting for the 202% days. Hopefully not long.

Bowley

I think and hope that that is the old culture you are refering to and the one which i think the Guardian article alludes to. The new Mongolia looks as if it is trying to work more closely with western companies hence visits from senior politicians the question is how far behind this change is the rest of Mongolian society. Worrying but i am still positive. Patience is name of the game here.

New bloc applications and IOM meeting

I do not understand why new bloc discussions would have anythiing to do the IOM meeting and i assume the formation of a new company. We have a company dealing with oil and that would deal with the new bloc applications unless you are implying there is something other than oil involved here.

Petro Matad Engery is either to do with renewables as WOS has indicated or another branch of conventional energy ie Gas as i have indicated. I struggle to understand why we need to go into partnership with MG for oil as that is after all our forte or supposed to be.

I do not think this is going to be resolved this week. It took a month for the LP (as it was) a week to come and even then it had to be forced otherwise the V1 duster results would have leaked out before hand. My reckoning is early next week ie around the beginning of August. Just be patient i am not sure what else there is after this so hopefully this is it.

So if DQE and PC want our oil that urgently i would suggest they come forward rapidly because the longer you wait the more this price is likely to go up and the closer Mongolia get to having a refinery.

On the other hand we should get more over time as recoverables and quantity on Gazelle will become known.

So pricing levels and time frame. imo.

Non of this is going to happen over night. There will not be an announcement one day regarding LP and an RNS next day on sales proposal not going to happen.

Time frame. Assuming LP finalised by end of July. Hopefully we can start drilling mid September at earliest. As a buyer i would want to ensure that there at least two to three months of data. Proving up the flow rate and API ease of extraction etc and most importantly that the on ground issues between the Govt and the LG is holding water.

In the meantime Gazelle is being proven up (I hope)

What price.

I will not go into this as just i think too complicated and quite frankly no one knows MB's line in the sand and how much DQE and or PC prepared to offer. Maybe even a partial sell off for an interest just too many variables. Personally for heron alone i would want around 50p per share minimum ie MC around £555m for Gazelle goodness knows hence the two together. I just hope that MB;s patience with the LP extends around negotiating table with PC if offer is there. They will try to wear him down it is their negotiating style.

Time frame for offer to come in March or April 2024 at the earliest imo.

If you are in this for the long haul this share will be very good and the long haul is down to everyones different time frame.

In the meantime there is everything else that PM is getting involved in and in time that in the short term could be the bigger winner to the SP but a sniff of a buyer and this share will rocket.

Second question is do we sell and when is the best time for such a sale. As with any sale there are two sides and it is possible that talks have already started but if I was the buyer:

I would want to get the maximum amount of oil for as little as possible and of course MB wants to sell maximum amount of oil for as much as possible. Simples as they might say. Well not quite so simple.

After all that has gone on between MG and the local government regarding the LP the proof of the pudding is going to be in the eating so as i buyer i would want to see that this arrangement is working properly so no proper offer would be made for a couple of months after drilling has started. Now the problem with that from the buyers perspective is that by then we should have proven up Gazelle at the moment all we know is there is oil there the quantity is a bit hazy but it is a lot but we do not know recoverable amounts or API or flow rate from what i can tell. We get all three of those then we are talking serious money.

As a seller we would want to include Gazelle in the package as the two are very close together. So we would want to prove that up ASAP hence my confusion on why we cannot do that now.

Ok price To a certain degree the discounted future price of oil will play a factor in that but that is partly largely determined by current price of POO circa $80 a barrel. The larger the find and recoverable the higher the price per barrel would be. So proving up Gazelle essential for us not so essential for purchaser.

Then there is the unknown quantity in all of this and that how much to DQE and or PC want the oil that is under Heron and Gazelle and how much of a ;premium they are going to extract from Petro Matad for that oil. Ie what discount rate in play and at what levels as the only players in town. Well the west are not going to come in or India until the refinery is up and running and Russia are personna non grata at the moment almost everywhere.

As the seller we have one small backstop here and that is that in theory the Mongolian refinery will be up and running by 2025 and that gives us a bit of leverage.

As i see it there are at least three price levels and issues and very probably more. It is a lot more than us saying we have 2.2bn barrels or whatever the total field size is for both we want x per barrel. there will be at least three basic levels all with different values of POO.

1) Recoverable amount. Known for Heron and still unknown for Gazelle as i understand it.

2) Total size of field again known for Heron and still unknown for Gazelle as understand it.

3) Flow rates and API on both would help the sales team immensely.

4) What is the line in the sand for MB before he starts to put any serious offer if there is one to shareholders.

tbc...