Member Info for Ibiza28

Let us try and look at this dispassionately without the ramping and de ramping of this share as i see it.

The Mongolian Government was right about one thing and that is it is best to come from the Local Government office as much as possible and they will end up having to police it and live with it in the long run. However what we have at the moment is a mish mash between the Government and local government and PM is piggy in the middle completely unable to turn either way. If you like we are the child in the middle of a potentially messy divorce until the law takes over. At some point imo the law will take over hence the fact we have the LP so the rest will fall into place in time. The question is how much time. I think it will be through around the end of this month ie about 10 days from now tops.

MB presentation

I think he is going to do a presentation to shareholders as soon as the formalities with LP and the local governors is sorted out until then i doubt we will hear anything. Mainly because he would be completely unable to answer any questions as nothing will be signed until he has an official start date. Up until then it is all conjecture and it would come over as airy fairy because it is all up in the air. The question is will the local council listen to the main government and more to point will they be co-operative over any issues. Personally i do not think there will be an RNS this week (obviously only one day to go) and very possibly not next week either. imo. Local Govt will try and stretch this out and may even need another visit or telephone call from Mining Minister himself (i think it was a minion who was sent) or even PM to rattle the cage again.

Hamm

Minimum of 20p yes i would say so. 20p values whole company at £222m I would say this was a bare minimum. MB may be a lot of things to many people on this BB but i do not think he would be in mood to give away this oil away. Heron alone on what is recoverable i would want 40p and then add on a bit for the whole field that although may not be recoverable now will not necessarily remain that with new technology. I would want to start with 50p.

Personally i do not think anything is going to happen until the "formalities" are sorted with the local parliament who hardly going to rush. However i must admit in the meantime i cannot understand why we cannot prove up or drill appraisal well on Gazelle. Now if that gets proven up then you are talking real money and real potential at a take over not of the company of the asset. There are too many other strings to companies bow (possibly) that means we do not sell the company unless we migrate into PM Energy of course.

I have considered selling and buying back in but the range is too great inorder to be sure of making a profit. If i had money to spare i think i would throw a bit more this way.

Amongst all of this the price of oil has been creeping up slowly and is now over $80 a barrel. Only just but back over 80 it would be nice if we could get our first barrels out at around the $80 gross figure.

very interesting condorman and comes in line very similar to a rough back of *** packet i had estimated. it means with a possible 15wells averaging 800bopd we could comfortably clear the 133m usd accumulated net loses in less than a year even allowing for additional spends on top. so it is very possible that xmas 2024 could include a nice little dividend for us long term shareholders. now that would be nice xmas present.

At the moment they are a lot of smallish sales and buys just a few over the 100k mark (one at 250k) but otherwise around the 50k level so imo just traders making hay while the sun shines. Or trying to.

I am not too worried by this a lot of this is traders using a quiet period with no news to continue trading in and out. If my last lot of shares had not been bought at a high i would be doing the same thing. At the moment just hang tight this will come good in time. If this has gone way beyond your time limits or you are too stretched get the hell out this is a share that will induce enormous stress levels over the short term.

Quite frankly when you have this amount of oil and support of government i seriously think this will come good. Anyway i am really hoping so. One bit of positive news and things will rebound rapidly.

Thank you for that Master must admit i do not remember your post. But 15 wells would be fantastic and with >800bopd it might be possible within a year to wipe out the accumulated loses. Unlikely but not impossible.

You are right he did not use those words he used "The well came in close to prognosis" which in laymans terms roughly translates "to came in almost as expected". I fully understand the need to drill and why which is unfortunate at this time we could not get a covid extension but my point was the way he expressed it.

To get back to the main issue on this board ie our share price and ultimate SP.

I have one question well maybe 2.

Now that V2 is not required why cannot we use that money to drill an exploratory well for Gazelle. Is there anything stopping us and if so why not.

I assume that Gazelle exploratory well is not a very deep very expensive drill so i would have thought the quicker the better unless he has a farm in for this lined up.

On another issue i do despair at MB's wording. As i recall in the RNS re V1 duster he used the phrase before revealing duster that it "came in as expected" . With all due respect if it was exp[ected to come in as a duster why the hell did we drill it. If he had said unfortunately the well turned out to be dry that would be lot more acceptable me thinks.

Anyway good luck all tomorrow or certainly next week should be beginning of a big news flow. I hope.

BP

You really do come up with some stupid statements.

Mr. Positive

Sometimes i wonder if MB has his brain in the right place but why drill a risky well in V1 ahead of trying to [prove up the Gazelle prospect one is almost guaranteed success the other just a 20% CoS. Seems strange to me.

Master 82

"exchanged opinions" I do not know if Mongolian have the same inference on this as it might in English but basically a very strong difference of opinion and pull your socks up and tow the line is how i read that.

Personally i think it is all speculation and unlikely but who knows.

If they want my shares they are welcome but it is going to cost them a damn site more than what the last buy out was at.

The absolute minimum as far as i am concerned is somewhere around 1usd per share ie something like 75p at this price i would be prepared to listen. I really do not see a price tag of 1.1bn$ as being unreasonable for minimum 200m barrels of oil at a fantastic flow rate and API. It is cheap and easy to get at by oil production levels. The fact that the chinese my struggle with the technology to get that much out is not really my concern if the technology exists they will go out and get it.

So my rough and ready calculator on this is 60m barrels at say 15$ a barrel is 900musd

Plus say another 10% of whole field ie 20m barrels for extraction levels with improved technology at at 5$ approx 100m$

Then i would want to sell the rest of the whole field of 2m ie 120m dollars at say around 1$ a barrel would be 120m usd giving approx 1.2bn usd. And i would see this as a starting point for discussion.

Tusoon oil comes as a separate discussion. I am sure there is some far more proven formula by which this is done but this would leave as far as i can tell plenty of profit for PC and gives us what we want quickly.

PC trading at 46.5usd per share and estimated at currently 62% below its fair value. I would not mind a a few shares in that in exchange for mine plus cash. Just my personal thoughts and dreams. No harm in dreaming as long as you do not plan around it.

WOS thank you for that and very informative and brings another thing to mind in that IOM might be for the government to have a stake in Tucson should it come through.

This (Tucson) is another high impact wildcat drill as i see it but we seem to be counting this as part of our numbers. As far i can tell this only has a 20% CoS (higher than usual according to MB) and the last higher than usual became a complete duster.). So please let us not count these chickens until they are hatched.

But yes possibility that PC with its dying production levels may well express interest in Heron once everything sorted out but i still struggle to see how this would be allowed by the Mongolian Government it would be putting all their eggs in the one basket of Tucson (one hell of a big potential basket) but nevertheless one basket) as regards oil for their refinery.

WOS you seem very confident in Tucson far more so than V1 as you almost talk of it as a given. What makes you convinced this is for real and not just another fly by night exploration at 20% CoS.

If our SP is estimated at 28p on Herron what would it be with Tucson and assume just 50% if PM energy is the vehicle used to bring this to market.

Mr. Positive

Don't want to seem naive but wouldn't the MG already have a stake in us via Petrovis. I find it hard to believe this company is not a quasi government business.

I am not really surprised this has not reached the 6p+ level after yesterdays large bounce. This share is still being traded heavily and a lot of people took their profit out from yesterday. But the fact it has still managed a rise is indicative that this share will not be kept down for much longer. When the positive news starts rolling in there are going to be a lot of people who will wish they had stayed in a bit longer. But the clever one here are doing both. Holding tight with a wadge of shares and trading through the rest. Given this shares recent history since beginning of June I bet they have made a lot of money doing this. Good luck to them and good luck to all here.

This is a little bit more like what i was expecting but this is just the correction back to where we should always have been. Once we get some positive news then we should start to see the real buyers coming in.

My only concern is that RNS writing and MB are an analogy as regards putting over positive news. i am hoping that over the next month or so this will re rate to around 15p that would be great.

Mr positive

PWhat do you classify as medium and long term.