Member Info for Ibiza28

Possible take over.

In the short term not likely in the medium term once we start to churn out the barrelage it will be interesting and one to watch. because this is Mongolia no believes until it is seen.

So who could take over: Petro China most likely and at the same time the most least likely. Certainly the nearest and biggest oil company and already in Mongolia. So yes very likely but

1) MB made a point of somebody paying the proper market value and I think the Chinese have a habit of wanting something for nothing.

2) Chinese have blotted their copy book in Mongolia and very unlikely that either Petrovis or the MG would approve the takeover. I do not think that all this support was for company wanting to sell onto the Chinese.

Alternative would a western company Shell, BP or Conoco or so but again i think unlikely. They would be minded of where Mongolia is and would feel stuck between a rock and a hard place.

So let me give you another is the Indian Oil Corporation who have at the last count around $3bn from what i can tell. Why India. Well they are already building the refinery for Mongolia. They bridge both worlds for Mongolia they have a foot in the west and a foot in the east. They are a member of BRICS the economic and political grouping that includes China and Russia and therefore understand the mentality of the two countries.

But i would not bet on anything happening in near future but no harm in speculating. But just my opinion.

Wos cont

1) So far as i know this idea of a JV with the government has never been mentioned before in any RNS or presentation where as Steppe JV has. Therefore this has suddenly come to the fore.

2) It is a sign of the deepening and trusted relationship that MB has developed with MG.

3) They took advantage of the Royal Coronation to set this company up not on line nor have this meeting on skype but face to face.

4) IT is has not been done with minnows or a few jobsworth civil servants but the main men and with the inclusion of the Mongolian Ambassador may even include knowledge from our government but that is extremely tenuous. But majors political players, a head financier, Mongolian Ambassador with our CEO and also fly over someone who looks as if might be our company secretary. No i do not think this is tiddly winks time. When will all this start I do not know but my hunch would be September/ October just before winter sets in if that effects anything but the government is back in session by then. Otherwise it would be next year so if next year why set up the company quite so urgently.

Something has come up or someone has had an ideas and they are going to run with it very shortly would be my guess.

WOS

Yes i saw the bit about this enhancing the Heron prospect but honestly do not understand it. So how does failure in the Raptor exploration enhance the prospect in Heron surely it is a completely different site unless you are telling me that all the oil in Raptors has suddenly re-materialised in Heron.

Why Gas and not Renewables.

For me the clue is in the wording or rather what is not in the wording. The use of the word energy in todays day and age is forever linked with fossil fuels. Now if you had a renewable source ie solar panels or wind power you would not want to call it just Energy but call it renewable energy or something like that. And if it is as you suggest it absolutely terrible PR. I rule out oil as that is what we do. So what is the nearest thing to oil that you would find with drilling and that is gas. IMO.

Why i think it could be big.

1)

The conclusion to the land permit is not just vital but is pivotal to this share price moving up. We all knew there would be a major tree shake but this has been a case of the branches trying to shake the tree rather than the other way round. However the failure of V1 means that the ultimate SP of around 28p (progressive research) is fallible as at the moment there is only one rather dodgy leg to stand on. We get that leg right then SP will come right.

However the 28p may well come achievable with the add ons that could turn this company into far more than just an oil exploiter and producer. I still hold the view that the meeting and set up of PM Energy is going to be something very big here and it is this that i am fascinated by.

Now i know that a lot of businesses set up new companies every day just in case an opportunity comes round and they end up staying dormant for years with nothing happening. But they do not always get set up in IoM with very senior members of another members country (including their Ambassador) in attendance and have a meeting that involves a very senior meeting with a chief finance operator from the IoM in attendance. My personal view is this will have something to do with Gas in one shape or form otherwise why call it "Energy". If this was going to renewables why not call it "Renewables" or "Green" which would attract far less attention in these ecologically sensitive times. Remember we were not talking about junior ministers or even doing this on line or have the senior finance man come into offices and not just do it on line and a quick skype phone call. This might just be the one that tilts this share from remaining for years around 15-18p range to one that could take t above 28p mark.

26.7 I would be delighted with that but then i think we add on the renewables and whatever maybe in store with PM Energy. Maybe it is me but if this is set up with the government as partners I just think there is something big in this. GLA

I think Velociraptor is coming a conclusion either today or tomorrow. My thinking is that we spud on 13th June but was to give us 30 days drilling plus set up and wind down time. So allowing about 3 days to wind everything up that would mean TB tomorrow. So we must be very close to knowing. I would hope RNS Tuesday or Wednesday. I am hoping that if it is a duster we would have found out by now as there is little ;point in going to the end as you would know well before that i would have thought.

So my guess we have found something but how much and whether it is commercially viable only V2 will tell us.

I think the crucial part of this is going to be the wording and MB or his RNS writers are not the best at giving a positive slant on anything. If it is big it will be played down till MB is absolutely certain, he is not one for trying to hype his own share. He is confident as to what this share is going to be worth in time. I do not believe he is interested in what it is going to be worth tomorrow or next week but more what it is going to be in a year or two from now. Does not help me much but then he is not running this company me (more the shame). GLA

I think you will find it is dollars but still a lot of money in the bank and more to come from the drilling and we do not know yet what else there maybe from renewables or PM Energy

Anybody got any news or indication of V1. The drill in theory has another week to run but i would guess it would take a couple of days to wrap everything up so i would guess that might hear something early next week. Certainly i would think if it was a duster i would reckon they would know now wouldn't they.

Must admit i do not understand it.

Yesterday more sales than buys and SP goes up 50% Today so far more buys than sales but prices has gone down 7%.

Just hang tight there is still plenty to happen here and the markets generally are taking a battering.

Agreed no one can predict the SP and has stated all this is conjecture and hope but based around some facts and reasoning and assessment from professional resources although probably paid sources.

By the time the DQE agrrement is signed and the all the rigs ready to pump plus transport etc will be around the time that China is crying out of oil to fuel their expected very rapid expansion after 3 years of almost complete inertia.

You put that together with what we hope will come from V1

plus the Renewables Solar green energy JV

plus what could be the big unkown here and that is the JV set up with the MG for PM Energy.

Plus goodness what may come out of the new fields . This is undboutedly exciting times for MATD just unfortunate that the RNS came out on a day when the markets were taking a hammering because of uncertainty around US interest rates.

I personally think that not just the MMs are holding a hell of a lot of shares but some point will run out plus i am sure the respective Inv houses had probably taken a position and when they have exhausted that lot then this share will re rate very quickly . I am hoping we will see that in near future ie over the next week. At the moment we are driving the car with all breaks on. Take the breaks off and we will re rate.

I think the only reason the DQE contracts not signed was because there was no start date because we did not have the LP or when exactly it was coming. Now it has arrived this should (imo) be ready for signing.

Normally with an aim share i would looking to cash in shortly and move on before this bubble burst but i Heron underscores anything if V1 proves to be a disaster. But if V1 comes in then this share suddenly becomes a lot more than just another share. I will looking to get out at in or around a price in mind but still leave a chunk in because i think share will easily sit along the rest of my main portfolio and possibly in a year or two be issuing a dividend around the share price many us as brought in at on average ie around the 3.5-4p a share region. The idea of getting a dividend at 100% of what i paid for it is way beyond my imagination but i do not think it is impossible if everything falls in to place. A long way to go twixt cup and lip but not imo impossible.

Sometimes i get really confusued so far up 50% up but 13m sales against 10m buys does not make sense. Anyway just enjoy the rise this is just the beginning. Godot has finally arrived.

I would ask MB to issue a RNS if we do not get the LP before Monday. Now that we know the government is in recess till October now. We need assurances that mainly we have the promises of the government of this license in writing and not just some vague air fairy promise made over a canopee at a drinks evening.

At the presentations MB talks about the promises but i do not think there has been any mention of it being in writing otherwise the Sam Goldwyn quote comes to mind that a Verbal Contract is not worth the paper it is written on.

I believe this is coming for all the reasons indicated. But it is time to get the kid glowes off and start to show a few bare knuckles MB and let us know you mean business. Playing the long game is one thing but playing a very long game is something else.

To use a cricketing analogy now the Ashes have started

We have the 20-20 crowd of the traders who come in and leave and then come in again and are only here for the length of a Mongolian takeaway.

We have the county cricket crowd who are prepared to stay in for a while but were not away that this match was rapidly turning into a test match of extreme length.

Then we have those playing the long game and are prepared for this to go 5 days or the equivalent there off.

The only problem is that this is rapidly turning into a timeless test and the last time one of those happened the game got unfinished because the England teams boat was leaving SA before the game was over. We do not want that happening here and i would be prepared to and happy to stay if i had complete reassurance that we have something that would hold up in court if the worst came to the worst.

So if some one said that multiple offices turned up at the scene of a crime you would assume that it was just two that went.

But Absolutely right let us keep to the share price and that is why i keep on about this.

So when we are drilling two wells it is multiple. so when you are talking about the share ;price going up in multiples you mean it will double as that would be a couple of times.

Seriously you need to be consistent in your use of the language.

I know Websters gives that but he has not written for newspapers and they would seriously use the practice of the words given below so as not to mislead the reading public. Even MB has not used multiple wells when describing V1 and V2.

I always understood

Couple = 2

Few = 3

Several = 4 or more.

Can 2 be described as multiple?

Yes it can; however, good writing should not be ambiguous, so as to imply there are more of something than actually are. For example: "Multiple police officers responded to a call about a robbery." That could mean two, but most people will imagine that there are more than two.29 May 2016

I would not and any good writer would not use multiple to mean two hence the invention of a couple and i would go further and say that a few meant 3. Therefore for me multiple would mean more than 3 otherwise why have those words.

Just had a thought on another look at that presentation reminder posted earlier. Could the PM energy be to market the gas finds at Heron which seem to be quite high according to the chart as i read it.

I have never felt PM energy had anything to do with renewables otherwise very poor publicity skills. Renewable is the new sexy term and if i was on verge of something clean and organic like solar power, wind power i would want to focus the name on that and distance my self from the fossile fuel element of "Energy" therefore i think energy might well be to do with gas.

I do not quite follow your logic or your understanding

Logic i do not understand why this should be a good week for us because the PM has returned from state visit to China. I cannot see how the two or linked other than tenuously.

Drill success on multiple drills. I think our understanding here is different. My understanding if V2 only gets drilled if V1 is a success. I am not sure where you get multiple drills from which implies more than two or the increase chances of success for V1 being a success if there are more than one drill. If V1 finds oil then V2 as i understand it is an appraisal drill and not another exploratory drill. The other drills on the raptor range will come at another time and are to a certain degree dependent on the finds at V1