Land Permits and Charts30 Aug 2023 11:01
Obviously the first will directly affect the second. At the end of the day it is a question of do you believe MD and the MG that the permit has been granted and will come or whether it is just a bag of lies. Your money, your choice, your shares. Personally i believe it will come i am prepared to wait. But in meantime let us look at what we know or can understand (or at least my understanding)
We have a SP that just a few weeks ago was over 5p and now under 3.5p and nothing has changed other than the bus has been delayed slightly. Will we get to our destination yes once the bus arrives. Will we get there on time. Al depends on ones version of time.
A few months ago Progressive Research our SP to be >30p based on 70$ a barrel from Heron and i think on a 20% recoverable rate from 200mmbo. MB now reckons that should be 40% and in time possibly even higher. (for the moment let us forget the even higher bit as it might look like over egging the pudding). Also the price of oil is now above 80$. On the downside we were around 900m shares in existence and now we are over 1.13bn shares in existence. Assuming 30p original estimte that would be approx market cap of 270m on 900m shares with 1.13bn that would now be 24p. But then POO gone up from 70 to 84 effectively 20% and change of recoverable amount ( ithink not included ioriginally) up double. This would push SP back up to the >30p level so roughly one counteracts the other.
But then add on other things that are happening the Renewables deal which MB seems to indicate (reading between the lines) is far better than he anticipated). i get the impression this is something he got into at behest of significant figures in MG and thought it might PM image no harm and we will find out how this is working out in time. This could add a penny to the SP.
Then we get to the complete unknown the new company and we believe is a potential link up with the MG in PM Energy Ltd. I think this is energy related (obviously) by its name and by the nature of our business. I do not think it is oil as that is what PM does or is doing when allowed. I also do not think it is Renewables for one main reason "Renewables" is the new sexy term so if wind turbine or other Renewable then why not use a name like PM Renewables. My guess is this is Gas related still Energy and still old fashioned fossil fuels. Again time will tell what this is. All this will add to sP and makes 40p look very possible.
I have left one thing out till last and that is Gazelle and if is proven up to be an estimated 2/3bnboo with a decent flow . rate and porosity . Combine that with a possible recovery rate of 40% if Heron was 24p new est SP then on 2bn barrels cvould be looking on a straight line basis £2.40 (200m at 40% = revised 24p then 2bn at 40% must equal £2.40 not everything goes in a straight line but one way it would go is up quite sharply.. And if 3bn this could 50% higher still.
That is the upside IMO