Member Info for Ibiza28

One thing did cross my mind and wondering any people know actual answer.

What is the reliance of China on Mongolian oil or is just a small bit part in their overall energy program.

Petro China are being pulled over the coals by the MG now whether that is for show or for real i have no idea. But i suppose we will find out soon either from current meetings in Eastern Province where local dissatisfaction will voice itself and part of that voice could well be the mess that PC have caused and doing nothing or something about.

So if PC have license withdrawn and sold or given to PM (return for share or percentage of rights) what obligation or need do China have to take the oil being extracted now by PM and not by their company.

We end up dressed up for the night with no where to go until the pipeline comes and MG has no local oil being produced.

I think the PC exercise is purely to show a crack down to local people and not get followed through.

There are as i see it only two reasons for not testing:

1) You are scared that what you think you have found will not flow at the rates hoped for and therefore reduce any potential value in the asset.

2) You are being asked not to test by the potential buyer for fear that it uncovers and proves up a far bigger asset value than is already there and therefore price goes up considerably.

There is a third one but i will not even venture down that route at the moment. I am hoping and thinking our not testing is much a last minute request from the potential suitor as i feel PG was very close to starting and did not gonforward as indicated by RNS's in early October for a reason

Talks

I really hope that by now the two parties after what 3-4 months of talking are at least on the same page because if they are not this is a waste of time and we should be starting to call their bluff and testing. So here is hoping to a resolution before end of this month.

After the let down of being told we had not started to test (by default) if Trinidad had not happened this false market that was being created in the build up to news would have continued. Now i think PG was well aware of this but was not and is not too worried because he knows it will come good in the long run the question that a lot of us are asking is how long is the long run.

We have a pretty prosaic phrase in English for this and it is getting close to it being uttered by PG if they are still beating about the bush "Either P*ss or get off the pot".

I think the funding came from the add on from the add from the last placing. Remember the company said that if placement was over subscribed the would at their own discretion incease the amount to be placed. Increased amount i think raised $2-3m and that is what has been used for this trinidad deal imo.

I tend to think there is definitely something in the pipe line. As much as i do not like the non information about not drilling i think there is a reason for this we have not been told about. Possibly / Probably from one of the potential buyers. I am seriously hoping we will hear something positive before end of the month at the latest. I hope PG has put a timeline on all the playing around and messing us PI''s around. As regards testing i hope that can start as soon as possible and that everything required is mothballed and stored safely and easy to activate. I do not know if winter climate affects this or anything but as we are now just 6/7 weeks from new year i think it is unlikely to be this year. I would just hope that PG and company do not carry on thinking we gullible fools and treating us with such disdain. He should remember it i our money from this last placement that is allowing the company to do this work at least treat with some element of respect regarding this.

All i ask is for someone to be straight with me. I will make a balanced decision based on that at the moment i am still in on a gamblers instinct that that my guess is market cap for Trinidad and Ireland with the change is roughly 8p per share ( that is just a guess) and with the share currently at 10p and i down. The upside i think we all accept is enormous..So i get out now lose on my investment or stay in with a massive potential upside or lose 2p per share on current prices. So for me i am in for a while but remain cautiously optimistic we may see something positive for Xmas. A kind of early Xmas present. GLA

YEs price would come down but do not think it would ever start getting negative. Negative would imply that we have so much supply we could never find the demand. I would love to see that price though for the whole field. I think we would have to be talking about £100 per share before we reached that and probably some after that too. Personally i would be delighted at £10 per share. But live in hope at the moment rather than expectation. The difference between the two is i feel i was lied to by the company regarding placement and just have a question in back of my mind if there is something else they are lying about. I really hope not but trust is hard won but easily lost. And this is a classic case of it. All we would have needed is a simple RNS on 16th October saying Testing delayed at behest of interested Parties and we will keep you informed. Yes it would have damaged SP at the time but no where near as much as this has..This will now need a very postive RNS in near future to put this back around the 12p mark.

But no mistake i think the Trinidad deal is potentially a cracking bit of business.

I tend to agree that the Trinidad buy does look like good business in the long run. But it will take time and effort to get this to 9000 bopd and looking at the RNS it is very possibly a cracking bit of business and well worth £2m.

But that is not the problem here, the problem is one of promises made and promises broken and the investments that many people on here have made based on those words not issued one but issued many times.

Now some investors here have been here for some time and solidly entrenched in the PRD story but others are here for this Morocco deal and really are not interested elsewhere and that is wrong this company is a three pronged fork of a company but readily admit the real prong is the Moroccan prong.

My thinking this deal in Tinidad has been bought to a head by MEEI with timetable threats and could have threatened the whole of the investments out there and therefore Paul had to act and strike a deal. And on face of it looks a good deal.

What i would like is some clarification as to why all the promises for a wire line logging unit with several delays has been going on. Is it coming from Tunisia or it coming from France.

Are the talks being delayed because of war in Israel.

One sentence from 5th Oct RNS was" In order not to delay further it has been decided to test MOU-3 and MOU-1 using conventional perforating guns."

Testing would start 16th unless we heard to contrary.

I would hope that someone senior enough was holding the boat in Morocco whilst PG was in Trinidad sorting things out there. I would hope to get an RNS re Morocco with in the next week as least explaining the situation on the ground.

Not so long ago it was PG's stated intention to monetise the Mou and Guerncif assets as soon as possible. All he has done is spend $2m dollars and wipe $8.4m off the share price.

Now on writing this i just wonder if he has confused MoU's with MoA's because the name of the wells are called Mou 1 etc.

Must admit i always thought to monetise something asap was to increase the value of an asset not see it fall by more than the value that you have spent.

There is a lot more too this yet to come in next few days because at the moment this is an over reaction by the market and as said it is all BoD based sentiment nothing to do with the overall value of the company. That has probably gone up rather than down although you would not believe it.

I saw this as well and was wondering if PG can increase oil production from 500 barrels of oil a day to 1000 (and personally i think it is a big if) how long would it take to get back the $2m that was invested seeing oil at 80$ a barrel. Very possibly not that long but all dependent on what the cost of extraction is per barrel

MOUs tend to be used for simple common-cause agreements which are not legally binding. MOAs, on the other hand, establish common legal terms that establish a “conditional agreement” where the transfer of funds for services are anticipated.

I have just this up on definitions and wonder why both with a MOU if it is not legally binding. An MoA is slightly different. There is no legally binding agreement with an MoU so what are we waiting for.

If he is waiting for an MoA then possibly because it precludes a possible transfer of funds but what good is an MoU seems like the equivalent of a verbal contract "not worth the paper its written on".

I am seriously disappointed i took PG at his word that drilling had started on 16th because we did not hear to the contrary. I owe a massive apology to all those on here who said we had not heard and therefore not started. Seems they were right. I feel really sorry for those who got caught out in this raise seemingly to pay of failing company CEG.

Yes thank you i had worked out that 75% of nowt was nowt it was just how many squllions were counting that was giving my brain a work over.

Can i ask (genuine question) are these prices our 75% share or are they the total values and therefore we need to take 75% of these figures as i believe we only own 75% of this unless I am confusing with something else.

YEs i have failed to account for the non linear factor which surely makes the lower TCF numbers ie 1 or 2 far greater than 1.5bn unless i am missing something.

I was going to keep away but really had to double check this through and do not know the answer. If 20TCF = £50 per share then the MC would be £30bn with 600mn shares and therefore that is £1.5bn per TCF.

Because there are so few shares (comparatively) in this company the far greater reward when we hit.

GLA

Finally looks as if MG are starting to get serious with PC. Who knows maybe they will take away the license from PC.

I am sorry my posts have been misinterpreted. I am truely an honest supporter but was trying to be balanced which i suppose is never a good idea on these boards.

Wishing us all the very best over the coming days, weeks whatever period it may be. I will keep away as do not want to upset too many people.

If the wells are sealed off could it mean they could be sold on individually. Just might be possible they are worth more separately rather than together especially if price gets too rich for one buyer. Just asking.

Mrinjazx6

But is not that exactly what communcatiion is about it is not just about information it is also re-assurance. Just a little note saying that the extreme weather in the area is not affecting operations. OR weather operations temporarily suspended or what ever. It does not need to be much we can wait for the main bulk of the detail later on. A bit like leaving a message for someone to do something and you get no message. When you finally get them they so oh yes got your message but was too busy to do anything there and then. I accept people are busy but at least acknowledge that they received the message in first place. Simple pieces of communication go a long way to helping understanding and avoid a lot of discord. That is all i ask at least. PG must know there is a lot of speculation that nothing has happened but a simple everything on track would work wonders i reckon.

Time to just remain patient. V. difficult to do but i have a feeling wheels are moving in the background and because we do not know it always seems exceeding slow. I have no idea how the weather out in the Guernciff region is affecting our work but let us hope not too considerably. A little of communication would not go amiss.. But i am prepared to wait.

Drilling or not drilling that is the question

I know it is unusual and the last RNS is not the normal type RNS nevertheless it was in my book unequivocal.

UNLESS you hear otherwise drilling will start on or before Oct 16th. We have not heard otherwise so drilling has started. I really am not sure what part of that is or could be confusing.

My theories

a) We have drilled and are awaiting results. Awaiting results means we hit at least what we expected to hit and possibly more.

b) Means we are trying to identify how commercial it all is.

c) There is or seems to be one person (at the moment) in our data room and by sounds of it sitting down negotiating (hope). If they had left i think we would have been told. I think we should get a non refundable retainer for not allowing any other interested parties talk to us for a period of time. Say $1m for exclusive access for two weeks. If no solid offer by then we start the process all over again (with the new data)

If we had come up a blank we would have heard by now not waste time or money testing and getting negative results.

Also i do not believe that anyone would be sitting round the table if all we had was a few bcf and that was it. If they were interested they would have offered a price and we would have bitten their hand off.

So assumption is they are interested and we have what they are interested in. The question now is who is the more interested party. If these results come in line with our renewed expectations or better i would say that they would be the far more interested party (whoever they are). If it has not come in line then i think they would leave or at least have made a passing shot of the price. I do not think has happened or not happened yet otherwise we would have heard.

So my assumption/ guess is that we have at least found our new level of expectation in which case the debate is much in our favour with i am sure many other suitors if this one got cold feet. The longer this goes on the more confident i would feel in a positive vibe do believe we need to put in a final sell by date and for me that would just before xmas. Otherwise we put this out elsewhere.

The longer this goes on (for the time being ) the more confident i feel.

World bank reporting oil to rise to 150usd per barrell.