Member Info for Ibiza28

Not just once but twice. Looks like someone trying to undermine the market. imo

Assuming that the Mou's will got sold on as one lot and Guercif would be tested later on would anyone like to put a guess as to how much we might get. bottom end and and top end for the Mou's. I am assuming we are talking £;s in the plural on the share price. Is the sale price likely to be in $ billions singular or in tens of billions.

Oh dear this is about the worst BB i have come across and have decided the level of vitriol rises in direct proportion to the expected level of success. We are expecting a big pay day therefore level of vitriol goes up accordingly.

I believe James is right PG is going or one off figure and trying to avoid anyone getting shafted by the PI;s or the MMs on this board. I think he is trying to avoid inflated hypes and deflated lows. He is possibly managing this by leaking bits of information when it suits him ( but that is only a possibility) .

PG i think sees this differently from other O&G small cap explorers. In other cases they need to prove up their assets to try get people to the table seriously. We seem to have people at our table for some while who are very serious. So to a degree we are (or PG thinks we are) able to put the cart before the horse. So we have an agreement (imo) now we are testing up to ensure that that agreement stands up. I think this sale will come in two halfs or two halfs and a bit and will ber announced at the same time. My view is that we are testing now and we will not be told until testing is over and very possibly when results are known so no top slicing by the traders and no one getting out early telling everyone else they should have got out at the same time and how stupid they are. This will be one big bang announcement (i think before xmas) and it will come in two / three bits at same time and assuming testing works out.

1) Super Cermame

2) A major not sure which one and am not sure it really matters and maybe a newly formed co-venture for the rest. This will be the MOU's in one bulk block.

3) ~To come some time probably early next year to driil/test up guerciff and that will then get sold on separately probably to same major / consortium.

It will come as one figure. so that everyone can work out if it is not already given as a figure. PG is then hoping that SP on Friday night will be Xp and Monday after RNS will open at £X no equivicating just plain straight price increase.. Cut out the crap and noise and go straight to go and not get £200 but £10 a share hopefully and maybe more. And for those who hang on it could be same again with Guercif. Anyway that is my thinking.

30p dividend would be great especially if it were to happen for xmas.

We will have to wait and see.

A few weeks ago everyone was watching the satellites to see what was happening at the test sites because as we had not heard anything we assumed that testing had started. Since we have heard that testing had not started we have not heard about the testing sites.

So how about we have started testing just that PG has not bothered to inform us yet in the same way he did not bother to inform us that we had not started testing.

Always possible in the land of CEO;s on the LSE.

I was thinking this morning that it seems ages since we got that disappointing RNS. I say disappointing because it was not the one we were all expecting even though it seems to me like a pretty good piece of business. Now ages since last news is in fact only 10 days, it will be two weeks early next week. I reckon that PG is keen (not desperate) monetise part of the MoU gas sales as quickly as possible.

Trying to read between the lines he some money fairly quickly to kick start the Trinidad project. Yes he does say 3 years from now fairly often which implies to that MEEI have basically told him to shift his ass on it and as an incentive they have written down the >$4m debt to $1m but obviously do not want a repeat of the CEG fiasco and a company that is completely bankrupt (almost). PG is wanting an early sale ( i just hope not a fire sale) of our gas assets to be able to kick start Trinidad. So i reckon our chances of getting a dividend are still fairly good but it will be after PG keeps some money aside for Trinidad development.

Consequently i would expect next RNS either early next week or the following week.

Yes sorry you are right it is just a rather bad habit of mine.

I would think two very different companies and more to point company sectors. I think O&G companies maybe are that bit more cautious in news leaking out because of the large Green anti fossil fuel lobby and also maybe this is a far larger capitalisation of any sale. At the moment we have no idea how big this deal might be. I am hoping that the longer it goes on the bigger it is. But there again it might be that neither party are on the same book let alone not on the same page. So who knows it seems like a long wait.

I am not sure that many on here and probably myself as well are getting confused over what we are getting upset by.

a) The fact we have not started drilling and were not informed that drilling had not started when they said they would and failed to inform us.

or

b) We have not heard any news of any possible negotiations or who with after 4 months of sitting round a table.

I am assuming that any deal is going to be for a few more than 200 mcf's

Anybody consider that PG might have been in Trinidad at time of Morocco energy conference and he could not say where he was because it would give game away re Trinidad and probably affect share price on Challenger ahead of time. The thinking was Trinidad deal was earlier than anticipated and probably pushed through by Trinidad energy ministry much earlier than thought.

Also let us face it companies talk to Malcy when they are trying to talk up their business. He is there as a publicity mouth piece for the small O&G wiildcat industry he does not report he is monkey that the organ griders keep onside to deliver their message. Would be interesting if someone did a correlation between pieces written on build up by Malcy and or interviews with LSE to new share placements. i reckon the correlation would be pretty high.

Therefore i reckon not talking to Malcy as positive as PG does not need to talk up this deal. It will happen and it will take a bit of time especially as it is big and at some point i assume will need testing to be done. Patience is a big assets here.

Pricing

This is completely linear provided the variables stay the same. Assumptions before people ask is

Any sale of Gas will be made is USD.

No of Shares in issue to total approx 600m. Many more the model remains linear but not so easy to calculate.

Exchange Rate Sterling to USD 1.25 currently about 1.24 and that has strengthened just recently

ONHYM share is 25%,

So $1bn equates to £1

$5bn equates to £5

$10bn equates to £10

Also conversely for the do not believers zero oddly enough equates to wait for it. Zero. And this roles through directly proportionally. So easy rule of thumb take the dollar sum and change it to pounds and remove the Billions and replace with a £ sign and that will be price in STG,

Computation $10 bn divided by 1.25 (Ex Rate) = £8bn

£8 bn multiplies by 75% (our share) = £6bn

600m shares therefore price per share is £10.

Favourable exchange rate and not that many shares in issue (compared with many) makes this a very attractive share.

No he did not spend £2m of Moroccan money on Trindidad. He effectively raised two amounts at about the same time hence the thought that he has used this money on Trinidad. The RNS regarding the placement was earmaked to sell around 90m shares and if over subscribed and company would have total discretion to increase this total and the extra shares bought in something just shy of £3m and i believe it was this money that was meant to buy Trinidad and probably did possibly for less than initially thought.

I think the Trinidad deal was potentially a really great deal possible done for less than PG thought it might. It probably happened as indicated a week or two sooner than PG might have liked especially as it had to have a RNS and that meant having to disclose that testing had not yet started contrary to popular belief.

This is the time when you have to stick with your beliefs and if you believe in the investment case then this is a must hold or buy and hold share IMO. If you do not believe and do not trust the management then my recommendation would be to cut your loses and get the hell out.

For those on this BB who want to paint the Bear view of this stock and are constantly denigrating fine. I have no problem with contrary arguments personally i want them and appreciate them but they do need to be constructive in their destructive message. By that i mean i want reasoned argument was to why this is "dangerous" and not just someone telling me when to get out. I will make my own call on that read what is written and more explanation there is the more i would be inclined to listern.

The RNS about a deal could come tomorrow morning or Next wekk or even next year. I have a time limit and just hoping that by the time it really has started to fly otherwise i just take or wear it on the chin.

I have been doing a little of delving and end up with slightly difficult understanding. Wanting to try to get an idea as to how much gas Super Cerame (assuming it is them) would likely want

1) How much gas does Morocco import - 39.8bncf

2) Main import of gas from China $6.9bn

France $6.2bn

USA $3.75bn

Total $16.85bn

However third question was how much natural gas does Morocco use and that was 0.2bncf per year. So where does all the gas go. So asked Morroco export of Natural gas which from what i can tell is zero. YEs some does get liquidfied but not that much compared to what is imported.

So would Super Cerame want just the 0.2bncf or so per year which would not make a dent on our inventory or a major part of 39.8bncf that is imported because that would be a whole different picture. I have no idea but think it is going to be a very interesting few months. Or at least i hope so.

YEs my concern is around this especially if it gets proved out to be a single basin as then i think it would have to a single buyer otherwise it is a bit like a bowl with multiple straws. Who has the longert straw gets the most. Cannot see how that will work. Now separate basins then different matter we sell each on separately and possibly get more across the board.

Must admit with numbers being banded around i thought it would considerably more from i have heard 1 TCF is worth about 2.5 per share i think it was and i think i heard at least 1.8tcf so that would be considerably more than a few million dollars. I think £2.50 per share would around £1.5bn ie something near $2 bn.

I am not sure that one of the majors is sitting round the table and Paul entertaining this for 4 months for something they could settle on their petty cash account.. $500m dollars would approx £400m and 75% of that is £300m ie 50p per share. I really think we are worth a bit more than that.

I am sorry just had a quick look at Harbour Energy if we have got what i believe we have got then they would never be able to buy us out. Way beyond their pocket with a quick look at their financials. They may have the capability but if we have what i think we all believe is there then this will need a major. If you are right the timing should be good and all the more imperative for our suitor to suit up quickly.

Because i do not think we are in the exploiting and production business to that scale and are far happier finding it and letting someone else produce the. The infrastructure costs will be a fortune for a small company like us and would take too long to bring to the market. But what do i know.

I must be naive but i would have hoped and thought that PG has briefed ONHYM and kept them pretty fully informed or got their clearance to do as he sees fit. So i would hope they know about testing not started (long before we did at least)

I agree patience. This reminds me a bit of days i used to sail over to France with a friend and it took forever. You did not mind it taking forever as you knew you would get there sooner or later. The problem came when you sighted land and for the next goodness knows how long it never seemed to get any closer thne all of a sudden from almost out of no where the vague blurs and land turned up with real definition. We are now in that stage we know it is there but nowt for it just sit and wait.

Is PG working in our interests or interests of the purchaser

I think depends on what you want out of the share and when you want it out. It should be quicker working with the purchaser agree a fair price and settle it. Question what is a fair price. If we have got what we think we have and it all gets uncovered by the results we could be sitting on shed load of gas but with no where to go. Who could afford it and could they afford it and extract it and sell it before the Green Revolution takes over. So too much may not be a good thing so as somebody alluded to some time ago this find may have come at least 10 years too late. Found it 10 or 20 years ago probably not a problem to sell it. But now with climate change may not be good to have too much proven up.

I do not mind us not testing as long as we get a fair price for what we have and not try and fob us off with saying it is unproven therefore give us tuppence half penny for it. If that is the case then test and get on with it.

I am wondering if the debate now is about stub equity in this after we sell rather than just the price. How much stub equity and how much it reduces the value. Just some thoughts. I still believe this will be BIG!!! the question is how big and when.