Member Info for Ibiza28

We are fast approaching the last week before xmas and effectively the last week that the SE is shall we say actively open. I beginning to wonder if PG has the CPR on his desk waiting to go but knows that he cannot put out a CPR on Trinidad without making reference to testing in Morocco. He does not want to fall into the trap again, and what it would do to the SP, if he promised a date he was unable to keep. So i am beginning to think he is struggling to either find the equipment or a new time slot or just waiting confirmation that the equipment has been shipped before releasing this report. He knows that he needs a date that he can categorically rely upon to start. Therefore i think testing will be back end of January at earliest now and the CPR report will not be out till those dates are confirmed and i think that is now unlikely till far side of xmas. Really hope i am completely wrong and CPR and dates arrive on Monday.

Getting rid of fossil fuels

just a load of hot air.

Bad Prophet

Almost certainly right Singapore most expensive place in world to live but no cash flow I am not 100% certain of. All our attention has been on LP or rather the lack of LP there has been i think something going on in background re Sunstreepe I think it is. MB alluded to this by saying it was proving to be a lot better than anticipated was i think his phrasing.

We have no idea of the agreement on this but might be bringing in a bit of cash flow. Not a fortune but maybe enough to give PM enough to cover overheads in which case much of the drill money might still be around.

But there again just might be wishful thinking.

I reckon this is a short term dip over the xmas period. Once we hit the new year i am expecting this to bounce back pretty quickly to double digits. It may be even quicker if the CM report is as good as PG seems to indicate.

This time of year a lot of the investors in these types of shares sell up for xmas or more to point xmas presents and then come back in new year. I do not think this will be much different. I would hope for a bounce back to around 12p by end of second week of January.

Personally i do not think we will start testing before 8 / 9 January at earliest.

I am also not certain if PG is going to give us a date just in case it gets missed again. I think he will just tell us that they have started testing whenever that maybe hopefully around the dates i have suggested. Then i think we will find out whether the doom mongers here are right and this is all a con or the bulls have it.

Looks as if Santa has lost his Sat Nav.

On a more serious note i know there are two-- three weeks to the end of the year but i think it is time that MB gave us an update on where we are on this. We were told by end of year. there seem to have been plenty of meetings but still no news.

The only reason i am still in is because Petrovis are still involved otherwise i would have taken my hit and gone. As far as the promises of the Mongolian Government helpful but after they are just politicians prepared to blow with the wind. It would screw relations with Western countries for a long time.

I am not sure why they would be able to confiscate our land after all we have done nothing wrong i do not believe the sinners in all of this is Petro China from what i can tell.

Tarred with the same brush.

I am not so sure that PG does not thinking is important but rather that it has its place. I think PG wanted the buyer and the MOU lined up first and i think that has taken more time.

I believe that Chariot is under water and could take a very large Cap ex programme to bring to surface therefore i would reckon far less prone for an unwelcome take over bid. We are a very small land based O&G company with potentially massive reserves and relatively easily hooked up to the local infra-structure compared to Chariot and I would think very vulnerable to an unwanted bid.

The wait to test is frustrating and by sounds of it were all ready to go back in October when a new unforeseen regulation got in the way. Now whether we were negligent in not picking this up or whether it is something that everybody assumed that every body knew about no body mentioned it till last minute i have no idea. So if this is ONHMI or PRD who knows. The wait is annoying and hopefully testing will begin in around a month from now and i think that everything will come good in the short term (as it is now). My difficult decision will come early April.

Running things in a JV is like making decisions my committee. The bigger the JV the longer time it takes to make even the simplest of decisions. Once you get rid of the committee or the JV partner decision making is much simpler and much quicker. I am expecting that we will move much quicker and hopefully generate enough cash to be able to generate its own natural growth and be able to add a little to the main coffers as well. Eventually this will be big we know there is oil there we are already extracting it. And we also learn that there is even more than we thought waiting to be discovered. As i have said CM could easily be 90p per share in relative short time on its own. Problem we have all got a bit blaze about 90p when we have Morocco being potentially one of the biggest finds of gas in the world and a lot of people here will be out when that reaches a pound or two let alone £5 or more.

Mumbo jumbo

You are right in that the main focus should be on Morocco and it is. After all it is the butter, jam, cream and even the cherry on top of a scone. In other words the up side is enormous. Not just 9p but maybe even £9 eventually.

As regards CM being a waste of time it depends on your view of the management. If you think they know their stuff geologically you back them if you do not then do not invest.

But do not be fooled by the figures out of CM because when you are in a partnership or JV you can only go at the pace of the slowest partner. In this case that was CEG who basically were bankrupt but now we are on our own. We will get 100% of what we extract less any shares as opposed to getting 50% and then there is the chance to Enhance the well.. I would be at all surprised that in time the price for CM would move from 9p to 90p

I think when the RNS arrives and it is analysed properly (mainly because i do not trust the communication skills of our team) we are going to be pleasantly surprised.

On the basis that a whole is better than a half generally and the fact we got the half for £2m is be honest a bit of a steal. Because the market is so obsessed with Morocco at the moment as that is the real cherry on the cake they imo have not factored in Trinidad at all. I would not be at all surprised if Trimidad has a potential value in relative short term of 9p on its own.

SamLawrence

My understanding is that we have a buyer in the wings waiting to go ahead once we have tested and proven up what we have got. Normally i would expect us to explore and then test and go looking for a buyer. This seems to be doing it the other way round.ie buyers first with an MOU and then testing up. This is one of two things or both but could be PG wanting to put a price on this stop ie a buy figure without the PI's or MM's playing havoc with the SP fluctuations. And it could also be that the testing /appraisal would be greater than originally expected but the better view of this would come from others on this board like Koz and GRH rather than my layman's opinion. Personally i am hoping that if we test early mid Jan as promised we will have a good clue around mid February what is happening. By the way we would only be selling Morocco the company would continue on with Trinidad, Ireland and all places new also whether the buyer would have the jurassic included is as yet unknown as is much of this tbh.

I struggle to believe 35p upper limit. I do not think PG or Lonny were getting excited about 35p share when only a little while ago it was 21p. Accept and assuming that the 35p is on the 562.5m shares an MC under £200m against one before other discoveries of just under £100m. Hardly earth shattering.

I think these are pre testing results and would be many multiples of this after testing. And yes we will test hopefully in January.

But having said that

1) We now own 100% CM and the next OU on Trinidad should be interesting.

2) Ireland may come back into its own again but this is at the moment much the same but could change at almost any times.

IMO this is a brokers over cautious valuations which will explode once the testing results are known and they could well exceed any thing originally anticipated. Personally i think if testing across the the 4 Mou's comes through as anticipated this share should be around the £5 that i anticipated some time ago. And for the disbelievers do not worry i have already the straight jacket on order.

But seriously if you think that our management has been talking for four months just for a buy out price of £200m I would be staggered.

Petro china are by the sounds of it:

At worst get their whole field confiscated by the Mongolian Govt

but most likely have their wrists slapped and told not to be bad boys again.

Whichever way they are not going to continue to be flavour of the month with MMMHI or the MG let the people of the Dornod province and at the moment we are being hung for the sheep we have not yet stolen by being tarred with the same brush as PC.

We have our sight and need to explore and prove up Heron and then start to find a partner. What PC might want is to take us over but trade in our name rather than trade in their name. Or a ready made option is to use DQE as their acceptable front face. New and possibly not known too well by the MG. Just a thought.

20p a share would be very nice right now of god knows how many years of waiting.

Re Gas for Morocco

The last set of figures i saw was that Morocco imported 38.5bncfg i think it was for 2021 ie straight after the pandemic year. They paid $16.4bn for that. Several questions come from this.

What was the figure for 2022 and 2023 when the world is pulling out of the Pandemic and i am sure that Morocco was trying to come out at the same speed so i would assume the usage went up.

the price of gas has gone up since 2021.

By the sounds of it we have a shed load of gas just waiting to be proven up and 38.5 bncfg might just a fraction of that what the hell are you going to do with the rest of it as i think has been mentioned on here more than once.

So personally if this is just for Morocco and we just take these reported figures i would have no problem with selling them around 40bncfg for around $9bn and give us a SP of approximately £9 per share.

That still leaves the problem of what is left over and by the sounds of it there may well be a fair bit. I would not mind some of coming this way as my Gas bills are high enough this winter as it is. So maybe the UK might want some.

Providing the needs for Morocco and a fair price is laudable and would still give us a decent return on our investment. IMO GLA

Copied from RNS this morning

Independent Technical Reports and Reserves Estimation

An independent technical report for the Cory Moruga asset with indicative production profiles and near-term revenue projections is expected to be released before the end of 2023.

I do not expect any news this week and probably not even next week. I would hope we get something before Xmas so that would leave weeks beginning 11th and 18th. It would be nice to have something solid before xmas but am not 100% sure of it.

No as i see it they are two separate issues

1) We produce and effectively sell to china.

2) After that it is not our problem as to how Mongolia gets its fuel.. As i understand Mongolia will get a tax from us after costs are covered.

I think time it would come into play is if Mongolia and China cannot agree a proper price and Mongolia decides to close down production until own refinery is open.

So i am in until license finally fully released and i will then get out some time after that.

Ok so what happens when we get the license to produce. We produce send the oil to china to process then what does MG do buy it back from China and again at what rate. I cannot see this working out for the Mongolia until it has its refinery up and working and that i think is until 2025 at the earliest i would guess. I would hope that someone in the Ministry of Mining is looking at a pipeline from Heron through to refinery otherwise our share is going to tumble as it will be up to us to provide the infrastructure and that would mean a massive placement.

Thank you for everyones input and yes i do accept that £5 may have been at top end of range and was deliberately posted to elecit a response. But i took my figures from the posting that has just been reposted from Keith Oz who seems to know his stuff and backs it up with information. I also found on the internet that Morocco imports 39.8 bncf and pays $16.5bn for that from China US just for starters. I would reckon we have in total with all the Mou's being tested up an amount in excess of this. I think i read about 1.8 TCF and possibly more because i do no think the new seam or field was found in Mou3 was included in that. I am not sure if that was either too new or not known about at the time.

I am not sure if there are going to two sales now or whether we will sell one bit off now the the remainder after we test out Guernciff and then that would be second sale.

According to poster on here who has spoken to his broker and quoted as saying i think it was "the company are quietly excited by the prospects for PRD;" I think refering the sale. Now i do not think PG or Lonny would be "ecstatic" for a sale that would take the SP from 10 - 40P especially as there are a number of shareholders here from pre placement days and would have bought in around 20p per share.That would only be 100% rise. Very nice but hardly a cigar as they might say.

Also we have been in talks and i would guess with a major O&G company for four months. I am not PG would entertain 4 months negotiations or longer for just a 30p rise in SP.

Why do i think it is a major. I do not believe any smaller company would have the clout to prevent PG going ahead with his stated aim testing just over a month ago. It would need someone with a lot of clout (ie money) and pretty close to being on the table to prevent a stated RNS.

PG would have noticed the disquiet that the non testing had on the market and on this BB he would have corrected it started testing but i think knows all will be forgiven when the deal is announced i think before xmas maybe not in next week or so. I think something will come through for certain in the beginning of week beginning 11th December at latest.

I maybe wrong but would like to know how i am wrong. Give me an idea as to the amount of Gas we have got and your estimate of a selling price bncf and then we can all work out your calculations. My reckoning is we have enough to supp[ly the gas market for Morocco and if we provided all the gas at a quarter of the price then we would still be looking at >$4bn and that is £4 give or take and that is before the left overs get sold on. As far i can see the logic is there would just like to corrected so we can all get to a more accurate figure. GLA

Here some of my thoughts and they are just that thoughts.

I do not believe we or our prospective buyer have been sat around a table for 4 months or more and prevent from testing when we say we would be if we were just discussing a few bcf's. I think this is a lot BCF's I would be disappointed if this first set of deals is less than about £5 a share ie around $5bn in total value.

So what do we do with all the money. Part of it would go on Trinidad and try get that on stream and quickly as possible. (This is a bit like me squaring the circle as i started out in this during pandemic times with Columbus who of course owned Trinidad at the time.) Part of it might be needed to help the Irish asset to get back to the main table so to speak.

A bonus etc for staff and there would still be a lot left over. A special dividend would be most welcome and that would still leave a lot left over. It would also mean especially if the sell out reaches near double figures per share (possible i think) of a share with too high value having difficulty in trading. With Guernciff on the horizon i would be inclined to offer all shareholders an immediate 1:1 share bonus. This would immediately double the number of shares and halve the SP making i would think a bit easier to trade than 1000p per share (£10) It may even mean the SP might rise slightly above £5 per share when trading.

After Guernciff if successful i would then do a buy back of all bonus shares and bring holding back down to around 400m. Just some random thoughts.