Member Info for Ibiza28

Sorry WOS but Doc is right it is pointless being awarded new blocks at the moment it will do absolutely nothing for the Share Price nor our bank balance. We need the LP before any one starts believing anything here. IMO the GoM like to think they are in control of the LP but the honest truth is they acceded control a long time ago probably in May when they allowed the MMHI to take over control and since then the Governor of Dornod province has been controlling this narrative and quite frankly still is. I would not be surprised if he is not waiting on the General Election in June seeing as he is opposition party. I would reckon this government is non too popular over seeing power cuts and whatever the Mongolian is for a 3 day week.

Before you ask why am i still here the reason is i am under as i think a number of us and i do not bail out of a stock unless it is a dead duck. And this is still not a dead duck yet and could well have a lot of life in it. But it is taking an extraordinary length of time to get money from the MMHI to Dornod [province and on to the Herders. Once that has been done the signature should be immediate. If the Governor is sitting on it then it will just confirm my suspicion that the GoM has lost control of this whole exercise.

There is no reasoning behind this and it is either going to be proved right or very wrong in the near future but i have a feeling the current share price between 11.5 -12.5p ie Market cap circa £67m is roughly 1% of what its price could well become in a couple of months. ie circa £12 per share and a market cap of £6.7bn.

Am not sure if it quite as simple as this as it never is

Must admit with all the delay etc over the last month or so i have lost count of exactly what we know we have got in way of gas and just waiting to prove it up. Also an idea as to what we believe we have got also do we know we have oil or are just assuming there is oil down there as well. i remember when i joined around August/September time a figure of around 1.8tcf was being mentioned but i am not sure if that was the final evolved figure or there has been more to put on that as we have gone through.

As far as i see it if we can make a sale with a big enough deposit early on a Special Dividend is the quickest way of monetiszng and rewarding the shareholders. The price would rise much quicker than just left to the markets devices as it would put a price certainly on the dividend and as the dividend would automatically establish a yield ie a multiple of the dividend and with it the share price.

In my calculation it is about $1bn = £1 per share so £15 = $15bn. Achievable i do not know. I guess the ITR will reveal a lot more but my guess is not first up that might come later when we have fully tested later in the year. My hope is that we get to $10bn or £10 a share but i think it will first up be between £2-5 per share first up. Less than a pound i will be very disappointed with.

Congratulations silverfoil it is always a great day when you finally hang up whatever is your main tool. May it be a long and prosperous retirement with the help of PRD.

Somewhile ago i posted an estimate of the SP for each $1bn dollars of sale but now we are a couple of months on and some of the variables have changed but the calculation instead of being precisely £1 to $1bn of sale is now just over £1. Using 570m shares (rounded down) this is the current number of shares plus warrants issued in November ie 1.25m x 4 and an exchange rate now of 1.28 i hope conservatively ( Current rate 1.27) we get to £1.03. This unlike each BCF or TCF does not have an economies of scale the The number for 10Bn is is £1.0275 and then move decimal place so would be £10.275 etc

We seem to be stuck on the launch pad at the moment in another holding pattern. We need the ITR or a confirmation that testing has started.

The next RNS or rather the ITR RNS will be fascinating reading and the reaction to the share price. It really should be up by a considerable amount as a share cap of £70m is way below what it should read. However it may not be enough to convince some people. "Blowing the doors off" is a purely relative term and like the word transformational (far more like modern vernacular) depends to whom it applies. So because of that if the numbers are good but not that good then this SP will jump massively but then some will bail out pre completion of testing and some more will probably buy in. It is not all Devonshire cream tea where the jam is put on top. Personally i think it is just a question of how much jam goes on top.

Keith

Many thanks for taking the time out to answer my questions. I too believe it will flow and flow well enough for what we need and was really just wondering in worst case scenario. I tend to agree and rather like your iceberg analogy and my knowledge in all of this is about as big as a little icicle on the top of that iceberg. So from a little icicle to the big berg many thanks.

To those on here who understand these technical things(like KeithOz and GRH) I would like to ask two questions if I may and if they sound completely ignorant, I apologize but I think there maybe some with very similar questions if not the same.

1) I am sure the ITR will reveal the total amount of the gas that we know we have found and will probably cover a few estimates based on what is there that we know of. But would that be all the gas there is or could there be more there when we test than we already know about. Or conversely would the testing reveal that any estimates made were wrong and over stated. If either which way do you think it would err ie more there than originally thought or less there than we estimated or would the two more or less cancel each other out.

2) Without wanting to be pessimistic about this but worse case scenario is we have all this gas but it just does not flow at the right rates. Would that be it then and the well becomes unviable or are there other methods to try and force the gas to move. I was thinking along the lines of Fracking or is that other stuff.

I think a pure consolidation right now would reduce the market cap and effectively reduce the share price. What might work is when the LP is granted and then sold on to PC would be to do a share buy back effectively 1 share for every two held and reduce the shares that way and look to move the market forum. But just a consolidation right now would be i think economic suicide. Bahamas Energy did that becoming Challenger but not changed forum's. To be on the NASDAQ you need to be of certain size I believe and we are no where near that - YET.

They are very big olives.

There are some on here who think i am completely bonkers and others who think i really should be in a straight jacket. Well good for them and i have no problem with that everyone for their own. I know who i am and that is all that matters.

I have been looking at the RNS and note the various time frames. It looks as this share price time frame is a bit longer than some of us (ie this moron here) initially thought. This share price will be a slow burner over the rest of this year or at least till the end of third quarter. I was rather hoping naively that we would test and prove up and sell on to Afrique gas. And the real kicker in all this is that i think CM will be bigger than i thought but i always had every confidence that once CM was in hands of single exploiter with some cash behind it would very quckly cover its over heads , company overheads and start to make an overall contribution to the bottomline. Sounds as if it could be a bit more than a contribution to our bottom line.

I have also re listened to PG presentation back in June i think it was where he talks about what is there and the plans going forward. What was notice is the excitement / anticipation in his voice. I do not think he is excited becasue he has found another gas field. Let us face it he has been there and got the tee shirt so i do not believe that rocks his boat the way this one has.

Nor do i believe it is because he has found gas fields in places that peoole have told him he was wasting his time. I think PG is too long in the tooth to try rubbing peoples noses in it any more than anticipated. Fun as that maybe.

The excitement is almost palpable you can feel it. I think he really does beleive that this will end up being enormous. I think if you can afford to hang on to the end this will be transformational for many of us shareholders. The problem is having guts to see this out.

My personal view is that something akin to £5 -£7.5 per share will be almost be an initial disappointment.

In time this could be MASSIVE and will not only blow the doors off it will blow the lorry up plus the whole house and grounds that the lorry are it.

Or to quote from another classic movie "Buckle up it is going to be a bumpy ride".

Silverfoil

Completely agree with you this could be a double whammy for us PRD holders who live in uk. Not only do we a share that well could do anything but we might also start to see our gas bills come down in time to a level that is more akin to what we are used to.

WOS you might be able to answer a question for me regarding all these other activities we have going on

1) Why cannot we be told about PM Energy and the IoM meeting It has nothing to do with PM itself otherwise it would be just another field of work in our main portfolio.

2) Sun steepe another JV that is completely unrealated to PM's main field of activity ie Oil producer and explorer.

As i see it none of these are dependant on us getting the LP and even so the LP is now guaranteed the government have implied as much so wny cannot we be told of these other stories. Surely they should all add to balance sheet.

I think i know your answer but would be interested to hear your views. Why hold back on news.

Of course everybody is going to sell their shares eventually and yes i will do in time. But i think a comment like that reflects exactly what i mean.

I posted on here almost as a bit of joke that PG would give us an RNS after we have started testing but on reflection i am beginning to think that this is far more likely. PG likes loyalty to investors ie those who are on here for the long haul. Every time you get a piece of news it starts to get played by the market and although traders want that the investors like to stability in the price and a steady movement (preferably upwards). The traders want and are trying to sow discord and uncertainty. And the reason they are out on this share so hard is that PG is trying to avoid the plays up and down.

The investor looks at the market cap now against what the potential market cap will be.rather than just the share price. The market cap and what the company does is almost an irrelevance to the trader. obviously the more volatile the stock the better.

The investor studies the company the company product the quality of the management their record plus the market as a whole. The trader studies movement patterns and volatility and makes his decisions around that. What the product is and CoS is almost irrelevant.

Now IMO there is one way of almost getting rid of the trader completely from a share but would almost destroy wildcat drilling unless CoS's are high. That would be to start charging Stamp Duty on purchasing shares [plus of course charging per trade. Put one or both of these in place most traders woulld be out of here in a flash as there would little chance on making money on the swings.

So to try and create an element of certainty i think PG will announce testing has begun rather than tell us that testing will take place. He would hope through this to create an element of certainty and try and remove a wad of speculation with someone driving market up only for their to be a massive profit take and price to plunge again. Again why buyer is in place. The question is how long between testing happening and full results are tested. As far i understand it with oil have to send on to lab for examination and this takes time but with Gas i am wondering if this is different. So maybe full results and agreed contract

If there is going to be a sell off of Block XX and mayber Heron to PC i think we will find out sooner or later. After all we have been expecting this LP imminently for the last 6 months and known it was coming since about this time last year. So unless MB has been sitting around on his backside doing diddly squat i would suggest he might have been in talks with PC over the course of this period. And of course having a deal with DQE in his back pocket just in case. So as WOS would say RNS on take over / sell off IMMINENTLY!!!! GLA

If these doors do get blown off are we talking £10 a share or something like £25. Any thoughts. Just day dreaming a little.