Member Info for Ibiza28

If the chance of a proper deal for shareholders exists and i would be suprised because PE is first of about No1 and then somewhere down the chain come us the shareholder. It probably depends on the DCF factor as to how much value we get and whether better to have the bird in the hand or two in the bush.

I really think the threat of PE was just that a threat and not an actual thought. It was one of exasperation and not logical thought. Although it would be a logical thought if the SP does not react positively to positive news.

however PG needs to look himself in the mirror and be honest with himself to a certain degree he has bought this on himself. Far be it for to defend the MM's but occasionally the indefensible need defending,

This is all about Perception Management. he explained it very well at the presentation and if he had done the same with the RNS's the market would not have blinked.- much.

If he had marked the test drill up as an effort to get some thing to flow as it would not take much and learn more about the formation damage and if we are lucky we might get something as the alternative was to wait while we got 18 pieces of equipment from all around the world into little old Morocco (ue a "major logistical exercise" i think the words were in the presentation. And it would not cost much.

Then when you tell that we tried but it had failed the market would not have blinked much and i do not think would have dropped 1/3rd but you cannot promote a test and then when it fails to say you expected it to fail. That is what dodgy insurance companies do move the small print to the top of the page.

The markets deal with thousands of RNS's a day i would reckon and it would deal primarily in the headline element it is for the people with absolute knowledge of the subject to understand the minutiae and workout this was not likely to succeed . Now i admit i have not read the RNS again in detail but i do think it mentioned a likely hood of failing "expected to fail" otherwise i think it would have picked up by a number of people on here but even i get the likes of GRH and KO were caught out by the "expected to fail part"

Up until that presentation i felt this was because PG might not be a very good communicator at managing the downside but then that presentation came along and changed all of that.

So what was different.

From that presentation everyone has dismissed Ireland - WHY - because PG has dismissed Ireland. If Ireland comes through positively next week or whenever it is this SP will move substantially but if Ireland does not come through then it will not move the SP at all. Why - because IMO the markets have not factored anything in for Ireland.

As i have said earlier it is about Perception Management and he is not managing the perception very well at the moment. If you keep the perception in line with reality or should i say your expected reality then the SP will not drop significantly. Basically the markets do not like unexpected bad news. Bad news it will handle as long as you explain why it is likely to be bad.

Many thanks BRV. I am beginning to think of this as a share to hold rather than one to cash all your chips in when it reaches your right price although that may well still happen.

I do not think he is stepping down immediately i got the impression it would a co-ordinated hand over over the next year so i would think no change unless for some reason we get a new Energy minister in next few days and that would change everything.

Selling for their ISA's in next couple of weeks.

I am not so sure. This i think will be very dependent on what we hear on Ireland. We are due to hear news on Ireland just at the time some people will be thinking fo selling for their ISA input but with Ireland coming up i will have to wait if Ireland is negative i will sell for the ISA move on the 6th but if Ireland is positive then it will be a whole different story.

Personally it is annoying to have Ireland come up now mid April would be far better

Ah this is the perennial question Investor or Trader Be. Should not stop being the trader and start becoming an investor. It is a bit like do you just rent your places or do you by a home.

When you rent you basically are disinterested in the place other than it serves a purpose but with buying you are buying into everything not just the home but the general area.

So with shares the trader just finds the shares that will suit his/her scenario the best. set himself trading range and buy in the dips and sell in peaks. No attachment to the share or the project the investor is interested in everything about what the company is about and even what is going on in the macro economy surrounding it.

So do you stop being a trader and possibly miss out on the real money or do you make your money as you go through. This has been going on here for a number of years now. I would reckon any decent trader has made more in that time than most of us will make when this does finally come to fruition and maybe even have a few still left in the pot at the end.

Personally i do not knock in fact i slight envy it and wish i had the still sets to do it. What i do not like though is need to try and manipulate the price to make it work either by shorting the share or by ramping price up or down just for their ends. Let the market do its job and if there are enough of them it will do it very nicely for them.

Our prize and investors comes at the end. Then you compare profits but as this has been running for around 5 years or more i would say you should think about applying a DCF on the cash flows to get a true picture who has done better.

Thank you

If i am right we should be getting news on Ireland shortly.

Anybody heard anything or seen anything on this

An awful lot of buys against sales but the buying rate does not seem to have gone up much. I do not know what to think

I had noticed that and think LSE is on the blip again.

That is a good question and i have one possible way. If Predator is set up as a number of different companies. ie Predator Morocco, Predator Ireland, Predator T&T all owned by Predator limited you would effectively just sell of Predator Morocco for Cash plus shares in which ever major it was. But first i think he would need to re-arrange the share holding in Pred Morocco to correspond with share shareholding in main company.

But this might be better answered by one of our city experts.

Thanks every body. I am not sure what i have started and i am not sure where it leaves us. Either 7.3 TCF or 0.7.TCF or 70.3TCF which ever way it is decent amount for one well.

Which brings me now to my next conundrum. If this were RNS i would reckon that PG was under estimating and add 50% on. But then this is not an RNS it is a presentation and they are generally marketing / sales exercises in which case i would probably think of deducting 50%.

But one thing i can tell you is that

A lot x A lot = Hell of a lot

A decent amount x A decent amount = A lot

A small amount x A small Amount = A very nice RoI even if it might not be life changing.

I have a feeling it is going to be nearer the middle of the three maybe edging on the top one.

The top one would not blow the doors off it would blow everything off. It would be like an atom bomb on everyones finances here and i do not care how rich you are it would be MASSIVE.

Thank you that may well be it.

I am obviously being very thick this morning but if i use .657 instead of 657 it moves the decimal point by three places so instead of giving me 0.114 i am getting 114.15 a rather big jump the other way. There is obviously something here that i am missing and it is probably something very straight forward. All the other calculations i can follow ie the i can match the maths it is just this one where the decimal point is wrong. K Oz is obviously wrapped for the night now but if any one can unfathom this for me please i would be grateful.

75 / 657 = 0.11415

75/0.657 = 114.15

Now

750 / 657 = 1.14 This is or does come to 1.14.

I think that KO is probably right in his calculations as would be PG so there must be something straight forward that i am missing or not understanding.

Sorry Keith can you clarify your calculation. I think you have the decimal point in the wrong place.

75 /657 = 0.114 not 1.14 750 /657 is 1.14

This would the decimal place one point. And that would make a significant difference i think.

I think there is somethng you missed out in compuation that i am obviously not following.that you may have taken that simple souls like me do not pick up on.

Porters

You are right people are entitled to be unhappy and express their disappointment at the management but that does not mean you have to rude and offensive. If you really think being rude and offensive to any body is warranted action then i seriously think you ought to look at your standards. They are not mine and quite frankly nor should they be yours.

Ok so if the RNS about the LP lands here on Monday what are peoples assessment of this sSP over the next quaater so end of June.or even end of September ie 3rd quarter.

Do you think they are acting for another major trying to get in through the backdoor or are they do you think from within the City so to speak. If you are trying to get in through the backdoor i think it is really damn stupid. I mean yes they could take over the company but we are really small fry in all of this the main people are Morocco and the powers that be there. If they do not like the major they could easily just make it close to impossible to operate and therefore negate everything they have tried to do.. Personally i do not think a major would get involved in any country that is not a pure capitalist system. IMO it would be crazy so only alternative if you are right is the city trying to talk down the share for an entry by someone. question is who.

Personally i do not mind the delays. I would like to know that there are delays so that this BB does not come out with a whole load of conspiracy theories. Last thing we need is to be sitting here wondering how testing was going based on an RNS when in reality the equipment is not even in the country or something. The more that the delays are not passed on the more it looks as PG is not totally in charge. This is all about Perception Management.

MEM

If you are going explain to Pg that a slip in timetable once or twice would proably be acceptable but if it keeps happening then it starts to look like bad management.