Member Info for Ibiza28

Nigel

Why is that an educated remark. He said it could be this price by this time next year. Yes it could be but there again it might not be. It is his opinion and must admit i tend to agree with it. It could well be but personally i think this is an all or nothing share so i doubt if we will see £4-£5 we will either see 8p or maybe even £8. Depends on whether we get things to flow. If they flow this share could go anywhere.

I am not happy with one phrase in this and trust someone will tell me otherwise.

The RNS starts with "In the Current time PM owns 100%" this seems to imply that part of this is going to be taken away from us or am i getting a bit hyper.

Ford

I would not waste your breath, time or ink.

There will be a raise the question is when that raise will be. I tend to think it will wait till after we have got the permit signed off and we are ready to go. The SP i think will raise by a bit on the news probably to around 5-6p and the raise will come at around that price.

The reason i do not think there will be a raise now is who other than use here will buy into a raise as there is still no guarantee that this permit will come. After all we have been guaranteed it for well over a year now and still now sign of it.

The only alternative would be a rights issue to the shareholders. But i tell you i would not be buying in not any more i have done my buying i will take my dilution in terms of not as much profit i might like but my out price i think would still be very achievable even after dilution.

Personally i have wasted enough money on these enterprises with nothing but promises.

Goodness if i filtered all of these people i would have no one left to have a laugh at and the days on this board would be boring. i say keep them and enjoy humour.

I am not convinced we are going to get a fundraise or should i say not yet at least.

Mainly because i do not believe anyone is going to buy into it. You are not this time asking people if there is oil there or not you asking them to put their bets on General election in a country 1000s miles away.

The governor at Dornod is not going to sign this off before the GE there is no guarantee that the incumbent party to going to be re-elected.

Order of sequence for me is General Election

Extraordinary Mongolian holiday / party

Then we might get signature.

If we get any oil this year it will be almost by accident and right at end of a season.

Once we have agreement then we might get something this year but it will be a bit of a miracle.

Ia m not sure if this is

"much a do about Nothing" or "Nothing a do about much"

But one thing for sure it is a Comedy of Errors. Here we are well over a year on from this time last year when we were "all but there" and still we are all but there.

Like a runner in the London Marathon. struggling to get over the line which seems to be getting further away by the minute. One day it will come. Just a question of when that one day is and will we still be alive to see it.

I tend to agree i think PG wants to try and test all the wells at one time (one after the other) question how many drills would that be and how much would that cost and is there is remote chance that TT could make up a small amount of the difference.

I would not worry about Malcy and his opinion he is just a mouth piece. If you scratch his tummy enough he will purr out anything you want him to say. Obviously CEG did and PG did not when he avoided him last her Morocco. Malcy is very useful when you want to hype up something you have not found he is not for companies who have found it although have not yet tested it. We need to test very soon and we will..

I think we are going to find that the current SP of 10p will cover the value of our asset in TT. This is now 100% owned and means we control what happens, when it happens and how it happens provided we stick to the terms of any agreement. That means the whole of the potential in Morocco is priced in for nothing at the current price that is for those who bought in ages ago then you are still well under water and just hope something comes through for us all.

I am fairly relaxed about the agreement. I get the impression that everyone is on board. If they wanted to give to another party it would take them a long time to get to this position as we Pred are unlikely to give away all our information and although well heads are there they would have a close read our RNS's regarding formation damage and my think too risky with further work. We will get agreement when we need it.

Ireland

However i am wondering about Ireland , this is not some backward country who say end of March and mean sometime in the future. This is a democratic and (generally) well run country so when end of March comes and goes there has to be a reason. I accept there are extenuating circumstances in change of leader but that has been and gone and we sttll have same Energy Minister. So if the answer was no "Nothing Doing" we remain as we are would they not have announced it and given us a NO by now middle of April.

Alternative is they have made a decision and if a simple yes it would have been announced in the press by now,

So alternative scenario is we have given the contract (for want of a better word) but depends on us making an agreement with Vermillion and also Vermillion come to an understanding with the Irish government. I think when that is all agreed then we will be informed and the government will announce a release to the press some how saving Ryan from looking a complete idiot. So i am shall we say hopeful and more hopeful as time goes on.

Mind you i could be completely wrong and out by an enormous factor. Who knows i do not.

To me the longer this goes with no news from Ireland the more i feel this is an option and a real one at that.

Paul also added that he was not holding his breath i think those were his words so I don;t think he is totally surprised by no E Mail.

Yes thank you for correcting me on the head of the government and position and was not aware till now that Ryan was the head of the Green Party. Just thought he was a member of it. I would say very unlikely we will get much change of this change of leader unless they start turning the lights out in Ireland.

Any body got any news on Ireland at all. New President is in and new cabinet selected. I assume that Ryan is in place still. The question is how serious is the Irish engery problem or is it over now for the summer and can be kicked down the road for a months till the autumn comes in . If it is that serious and assuming new President is aware of the situation then maybe he will take it out of Ryan's hands in terms of it being a decision he has to make but given it as a "force majeure"

As i see it this will almost certainly get farmed out the question is how much bargaining power do we have to get a good deal.

We have found a large amount of oil

It does flow at a good rate

It is of a good quality.

On the negative side.

We have 25bn shares in issue which is to put it politely a lot. A Hell of a lot

We are diluted to the hilt and therefore little or no room to move regarding raising further funds. at least through the SH (IMO) only alternative would be some kind of RBL.

So farm out or sell on but i do think that the current SP and market cap at 65m is a steal for what we have. I am assuming (hoping ) the CoP will come in at some point. What is the current price for 3P STOIIP at the moment in Alaska. That would give you an idea as to whether or not a $1bn dollars would be around 3p a share. Seems a long way away but it is possible. That would be 10 times current price and well worth a punt i reckon.

Keith

As a matter of interest why do you think they would hang on to the results until all in together. Surely this is price sensitive information and whichever way we should be told as soon as it is known. I have a feeling it would be almost impossible to keep this quiet for a few weeks word is almost bound to get out and either a lot of buying or selling will accrue and be insider information.

Thanks Keith very helpful as always.

Yes agreed a really good discussion and a lot of diverse views which i think is healthy and a lot of different opinions. We by my estimate about 10 days away from drilling with Sandjet. I am assuming that we can use the same hole that we went down last time and that should save sometime but do we need to a have a completely different angle of attack and therefore need a new hole. The time will be taken i assume in finding the weakest or most appropriate point in the damage. rock. Also would we know the result immediately or do we need to send anything away for analysis. I assume if we get through we can measure the flow while we are down there. So would we know before the the end of the month or that too ridiculous a timetable. ie SJ down the same hole. a probably a day and bit. a day or so finding exactly the right place to point the gun and then shoot as much as needed to get through. Hopefully the gas is pressing to get out at the other side so as soon as a weak point appears we would need to scale down to avoid a major spill out

Thanks Keith that does help to clarify a lot but I am a bit confused why we are going to drill a well that only has a 12% chance of success. I would have thought drill one with a far higher chance and use that to sell on for the CNG gas or is there only this field for that. Either i do not know or cannot remember. Also i do not seem to remember the odds being so low. I always thought they were meant to be higher seeing that we know the gas is there. What we do not know from i can gather is how much and the flow rate.

It is not the tree shake that i would expect it is the way the share has held up through the tree shake that is good. Mind you if we do not have an RNS by Friday morning i think it will all fall back.