Member Info for Ibiza28

Yes it is a struggle and the current share price recognizes that and that is why the share price is what the share price is. Do i like it of course i do not like it. I was really hoping to have top slice a chunk of my holding off by now. And yes i am sitting on a loss at the moment. I should say it is an UNREALIZED loss that is the key element. Unless you believe that MB is blatantly lying to us about being given the Special Permit ( and we have separately confirmed) then this will happen. If we had not rubbed up the local governor all those years ago this might have gone more smoothly but he cannot or should not be able to scupper this now. I really think patience is the name of the game. Personally i back in after selling on the last RNS and now rather wished o had waited a few days longer. But c'est la vie. You win some and lose some but in the end i believe i will be the winner.

Why has he not been able to sign contracts with DQE or PC facilities

I am not sure whether he could sign any agreement with anyone regarding this oil.

Firstly we had no permit until recently from the MG but still we are waiting for the final part of that to be enacted. So we sign an agreement for something we have no rights to as yet. A great way to rub up your hosts back good and proper.

So let us say he does sign the agreement what start date does he have. The key ingredient in any agreement is when it starts and from that start date you get renewal dates etc.

Other agreements ie an MOU may well have been signed or agreed to but again no start date can be made available.

If you feel that strongly about MB and situation that Matad is in then cut your loses and get the hell out of here before the bottom falls out as i am certain changing CEO right at this time would see the bottom fall out of this share . There are times to change CEO's and times not to change CEO's this is not the time (IMO) to be changing CEO he is clearly now in communication directly with the top people in government and yes in history he burnt his boat with the locals but since then others have tried the same thing that we did. Once i can understand someone got the wrong winks from local governor but two issues as indicate by recent court case indicate someone playing both side against the middle or trying to.

I am not saying do not change, i am saying this is not the time. If nothing has happened by end of September i will probably be in the same boat as you and you can say i told you so. At the moment i am prepared to give benefit of the doubt.

This is definitely not the right time for MB to resign. Is he the right guy for the job i honestly do not know as i am not sure how much of this is preventable and how much is the Mongolian government getting its own knickers in a twist and we are having to live with this. As MB has said this last part is taking a bit longer than anticipated but as yet i have not reason to believe it is not because the local government have been told to pass it. The question is how long can they are allowed to drag their heels. Could someone have done it quicker is a bit of Tortoise and Rabbit kind of question. It is possible another CEO would have got us their quicker on the other hand patience may have been the order of the day and MB has been very patient (mind you so have we). As regards millions on wages i have to admit i have not looked at the accounts but all i know is the Directors were or are on half wages from about 2020 and not sure how much further you want them to go.

Yes the wild cat drills were risky and did not work but that is the nature of this type of share and company and is really why so many of us are here. This is our gamble. And let us be honest that is what it is a gamble. Personally my opinion is just sit and wait a bit longer and we will get news and hopefully good news.

MB can go once this is all resolved.because it may need a different temperament CEO to get us over the next hurdle and more to point we could be a completely different company than the one we are right now. If Gazelle comes through, the JV on renewables starts to move forward and then the big question is what the hell is happening or rather was happening in IOM. We might be a medium full cycle oil and gas company. If we do we will need a CEO who is used to steering companies through these choppy waters of straddling both sides until one categorically takes over.

Other than wanting to see oil flow out of the ground I am interested in how long we take to prove up Gazelle that looks like the real game changer here. Without it we are circa 30p with it we could see three figures.

Bowley

I am not sure how this is all completely relevant to PM but i am sure you believe so otherwise why would you post it. Personally i think this is more a matter for the Mongolian President and his government (other than the prime minister of course).

Having said all that there are a couple of questions which are fair to answer.

1) Are we sure that the extra loan assuming from Belarus of $1.2bn is actually to replace stolen money and not just because costs are over running on the project.

2) if the whole loan was stolen then how come there has been some work done on the project unless someone is paying out of government coffers. However if you are saying the Prime Minister has top sliced a bit off the loan then am i surprised the answer is no i reckon that happens almost everywhere.

3) Additional loan from Belarus seems a bit unlikely I am not sure they could get money out of the country for fear of it going to Moscow. And 1.2bn for a country with a GDP of 70bn is a lot of money especially as they probably know the first lot fell of a lorry then there's might also fall off the same lorry.

Rather than accept this blind from a source we do not know but you do i think there are a lot of questions that need answering first before blanket acceptance.

I am not sure it really matters when the refinery is finished.

Mongolia need the money to pay the soft interest and the loan for the refinery

china need the oil

We get final permit (in time) we drill and hopefully everyone is happy.

So ends this story let us just hope it is not a fairy story.

I think the question is

If MB is in Mongolia has he been there all the time or just come in.

If he has been there all the time then next question is almost irrelevant

If just arrived in country for two weeks. Why now is expecting something to happen. Otherwise why suddenly turn up has Singapore come too hot and humid for his liking. GLA

This share is not going to see 7p in any way shape or form. If we get no news it will drop but when we do get the news it will open at double the current SP at least and probably closer to 10p. It will then re rate ;pretty quickly above that once we get details of any deal with DQE also Petro China.

Has anybody considered (or is it a non starter) selling a % of find (especially if Gazelle proves up) to PC ie 10% to get right so the refinery and they get to maintain that 10% even when the Mongolian refinery comes on line and the rest goes through the Mongolian Refinery. Could that be a way ahead or another route ahead.

This is very important perhaps someone can email the company to let them know verify and update urgently. Never completely rule out rumours.

Talk about nice friendly interviews that must go very close to the top of the pile. No hard questions at all just a bunch of friendly prompts and no mention of the cash position.

I know MB has said no share raise and plenty in bank till next spring but surely that would have been based on projections of Heron flowing September at latest so therefore if that is not likely to happen now till probably earliest 4th quarter this is a question that should have been asked and was not.

Change of Tune from up and running by end of second quarter to we hope to be up and running by end of the year. All dependent on the provinces buckling down to do their end of the paperwork.

No agreement with PC or DQE as you cannot have an agreement unless you can provide a start date. No start date no agreement.

This will all come but the question is when. Docs forecast of Sepetember which i thought was way pessimistic a couple of months ago is now starting to look way optimistic.

Yes SP will drop back tomorrow I reckon.

That is right i had forgotten red dot for news RNS

Black dot for when another shareholder had died in all the excitement.

GLA and stay chilled.

Must say $12m is hardly worth the plane fare. Have a feeling this strengthens our hand as we will be spending that and a lot more in Mongolia before very long.

Wait till Mongolia has oil and a refinery i think the tune will change a bit then.

Could it be that MB and the board already know but also know that without the LP the news would be like a damp squid of a roman candle it would just turn twice fizzle and then die an ungainly death. But with the LP having been granted then it could take the lid off the whole firework once and for all.

If it is bad news he has to release it if is good news would he still have to release or is he allowed to wait for an appropriate moment. I don't know.

RNS was two years ago the world was a different place immediately after pandemic. We're now two years on just MBs word and I don't doubt it but what if DQE now busy elsewhere what is our plan B and who buys the oil that is question here. I You can not spend two rekyintin one string to your bow.

That's a very good question without them there is no China link.

I am still very hopeful but this is obviously a far slower burner than any of us thought. 6 months ago the LP was a given now we are six/ seven months on and still waiting. Godot will arrive eventually i hope.

But because of these hold ups delays etc i think the SP will take time to boost.

On news of the LP being granted or approved this share should double possibly reach 10p in about 2/3 days.

If at this point we have not heard anything of DQE agreement then it will start to slip back and probably fairly quickly so within a week of the LP and no news / RNS then we will be back at square one.

However should the RNS come fairly quickly then depending on the RNS this share will move up to around 15-18p within the week after that. These are all my feelings and no substance. Again this will be based on the news of the number of wells and the detail of the deal with DQE. IMO anything less than 6 wells will be disappointing anything over 10 would be good and anything over 15 will be really good. Less than 6 we drop back to around 8p until the oil starts flowing and there not any problems with the locals. Between 6 -10 wells we remain at 10-12p until the oil flowing etc.

Over 10 we should get to between 15-18p but again based on the oil flowing and money hitting the bank.

however once the oil is flowing on hopefully >15 wells and we prove up Gazelle (i think it is) then this share really should take off.

We have relatively few shares in issue and a lot of those are in very sticky hands. Share issue of 1113.88 000;s a SP of 25p is only a market cap of just shy of £280m. or (exchange rate 1.30) an amount of $360m dollars. Or assuming Gazelle works out at 2bn barrels plus the 200m with Heron that gives approximately 16cents a barrel i would say that is being very conservative. I accept that not all barrels are recoverable but assume just 20 percemt recoverable that would give 82c per barrel quite frankly this is the best risk reward i have come across for years and it about time we got some reward for our risk.

But if the LP does not come then this share is about worth confetti paper at the next wedding i go to. The upside a minimum 10 bagger from 4 p to about 40 p and down side from 4p to nothing worst case scenario.

Agree seeing the SP drift is nothing that as shareholders we want to see but i feel an intervention now from MB in any way that might artificially boost this SP would indicate that this is only a short term share with a short term life span and give out the wrong signals. But having said that if we do not get anything through soon he has to come out and tell us where we are in this process because i am beginning to think we are going through the whole thing for a third time (at least).