Member Info for HelloSanDiego

Invst21 - "Data unblinded a month ago? How and where did you hear this?"

The last patient was given their first dose on November 11th, as per the RNS from that day. It then goes on to explain that after the "initial 35-day trial period, quality assurance and statistical analysis will be completed". So that would've been on the 15th December.

That's 27 days ago, though I think it could've taken another week to collate all the data from all the sites. But that's just a guess.

Jim800 - "How long will the £25M last?"

Mid 2023, I expect.

The IIs who bought in at 8p will probably be anticipating the same, based on the intervals between previous fundraises. There should be significant progress by then, too. Both in terms of the company's projects and growth in demand for SAF.

He's won me over. I'll probably sell a few SNG at £5 and buy into 4D in a few weeks.

ONE HUNDRED.
BILLION.
DOLLARS.

(..and a jetski)

What were you saying about volatility?

Matml74 - "It is a forecast made by a broker."

Well no, a forecast and a target aren't the same thing. A forecast is an expectation. A target is a possibility. But in this case it's so far off that I don't even see how they could think it's possible.

Matml74 - "Their 530p target is pre-readout..."

Doesn't that show that this broker's note is rubbish then? We haven't even gotten close to HALF their target, and with no more than a couple of weeks expected until we get the results, 250p seems an optimistic target in that time.

Based on the 2018 results that Gerard alluded to, Modern Water alone would have been on track for £6.9m revenue by now. That's 3 years of the 18% growth they had been achieving before the merger.

If you factor in the contribution from SKIN and the extra boost that covid testing should have given this company, that £10m revenue doesn't actually look like they've made much progress at all.

Projections become meaningless when a company that consistently fails to deliver on them.

Paulcon2021 - "Any set of financials can be cherry picked, massaged or manipulated to confirm any narrative... "

Yes that's what I was getting at.

gjbrandon - "This has been evident from the Company turnover £278k at the end of 2018..."

Modern Water Group's revenue was £4.2m in 2018, up from £3.5m in 2017. Where are you getting your figures from?

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MWG/final-results-6kvehg0coyy18pg.html

Docdaneeka - "The only way your position makes any sense is if they are still completely in the dark - and that's not credible"

Yes it is. It's entirely possible that the Head of Communications isn't informed of any sensitive (i.e. regulated) news before the RNSes are written and ready to publish, so as to prevent any claims of impropriety.

If you take a look at any drug that's ever failed a clinical trial you'll find a positive, upbeat message from the CEO in the weeks before it's announced. I'm optimistic about the P3 trial results. But its not because of some cheerfully written tweet.

Don't be stupid. They're not going to hint at unannounced, regulated news in a tweet. They have absolutely nothing to gain from it and a lot of professional credibility to lose.

They tweeted a new year's message today because the PR officer returned to work yesterday and they decided back in September it was important for the company to have a presence on social media.

Doc83 - "I sincerely hope Parexel have been collecting the data as we’ve been going along!"

Me too! But it's reasonable to expect that some data might not be sent until a few days after it's generated. I think these doctors have other things to do, you know.

Doc83 - "It then states data will be analysed once the 35 day period post this date has passed. That took us up to 15/12/21."

That doesn't mean Synairgen will receive the data on the 35th day. They're just making it clear that the trial will be completed 35 days after the final recruitment date, and then analysis can commence.

Do you really think they can collect the data from 100 trial sites around the world the very same day the final patient receives their final dose? Because I think that's unlikely.

Doc83 - "they received data on 15/12/21."

Where did you see that? In the 15th December interview linked below, he says they expect the results early 2022. I've not seen anything confirming they've actually received them.

https://www.webmd.com/coronavirus-in-context/video/richard-marsden

Doc83 - "they’ve analysed at least a good chunk of the P3 data..."

Are you sure?

In the 15th December interview, Richard Marsden said they were expecting the data in early 2022. Have we even had confirmation it's been sent to them yet?

The RNS below says the results are expected in early 2022, not early January.

The P2 results arrived seven weeks after the final dose RNS. But with more data to analyse for P3 and with the Christmas break in-between, it seems reasonable to expect around 10 weeks this time. That would put us at January 20th. I'm expecting them any time from mid-January to late February.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SNG/synairgen-completes-phase-iii-recruitment/15207954

It's detailed right here. Half day Christmas eve. Closed Monday and Tuesday.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/trade/trading-access/business-days

With the money they could save from buying their moisturiser at Boots they could easily afford to see a medically trained dermatologist several times a year.

And what kind of people are going to tell their friends they've just had an STC test? It sounds like the kind of thing you'd want to keep quiet.