Member Info for hedgeman

Checked with company.. Will fully comply with all NOPSEMA requirements and no increase in opex guidance to comply.

When was that issued?

DEEKO19

How can it be $65 .. its gas + oil !!

They might well make a low offer even if they know it won't succeed .. this would allow them to take their stake signif' higher than 30% ..

Tyrus are on the Board .. they should know exactly what's happening.

Interesting SEA pres... team are claiming/marketing hard value of £3.24 per share ... unrisked upside to £11.24. Of course take with a pinch of salt ... but discovered/appraised route to 20,000 boe net by 27/28+ with signif exploration upside, suggests crazy value being built out.

The term asymmetric risk ... is a good one to use here!

Answered positively to additional assets in 2025 ... so I wouldn't bet against that!

Will only take one or two funds to want in to push quite a bit higher imo... and now they have the assets to support funds buying in.

You're simply not understanding how a business with high initial decline rates works.

Assuming no further weakness in oil prices sp could improve significantly from here.

Balance sheet cannot sustain another major period of investment and cash outflow on capex.

A decent sized one off payment to pay down debt and/or add new assets with immediate cf + a free carry for future cf would immediately improve the share price ... as nothing in current mcap for Vietnam.

Question is at what point can they achieve this and what's a decent pre development price??

Vietnam prob gets farmed out .. hopefully for a decent one off payment and a free carry of c. 10% ?!

It's not the accounting, it's the cash funding. I think they need to be more open about how those liabilities, esp montara 2030 would expect to be cash funded and over what period... how many years post cessation of production ... if market gets comfortable with that, eg montara cash decom is 2030+ to 2035+ then there is considerable upside here.

Also ... focusding on the balance sheet is fine ... but they really need to give the market something to get excited about ..

The question here is the 100s of $m decom for Stag and Montara .. until fundung for that liability is clear sp performance will be limited unless there is new upside in current assets... no?

Expect ..

Update on dewa fdp

Other Malaysian options

Thailand

Kertang update

They need to get Vietnam to FID and farm out

Useful update.

- Dewa Fdp this year should convert discovered resources to 14mm+ boe net reserves... underpins significant value in company ($40m+?).

- Kertang approvals received, $10m payment b4 end March means estimated cash £10m v mcap at 36p of £23m.

- Kertang drill date confirmation this Summer.

- Plenty of opportunities in Malaysia and now Thailand ... "potential M&A with an ambition of materially expanding its portfolio during the year."

So, reserves + cash at year end (say £8m) underpins value of c. £40m or c.62p per share.

That leaves blue sky upside of kertang and any other value add activity for free.

Remains a great opportunity imo!

Shame is .. shareholders had the possibility to remove them .. I voted to kick them out, unfortunately not enough did the same.

Main shareholder had enough of Blakely I think ... operations director a good move. Balance sheet focus can only be good.

Completion nay be s.t. gov approval of course

That makes no sense at all.

This has been an ongoing process since early Summer

... heads of terms must have been agreed weeks ago ... the deal needs to complete pre Xmas.

If there is not an agreed partner with agreed heads of terms then they will need to raise.

Great op here ... yes underlying production declined 25% ... but if substantial amount of that was restructed due to water cut and they are now able to deal with that .... then the next update should have stable or increased underlying production + a new well.

So my guess is we go to c. 6,000 bopd in Dec/early Jan.

That will imo see sp back in 30s.

Then we go to 2 rigs and on from there!!

Couple of 'ifs' in there ... but no reason so far to think MA isn't an excellent operator.

Got to think the company must be as certain as they can be about free carry + good cash amount, otherwise they would've been crazy not to raise already.

Free carry + say $5m to $10m and where does sp go??