Member Info for hedgeman

The day to day is irrelevant here .. as said b4 .. if they execute through to Farm Out just w the assets they have today .. can't see value less than well over 200p by 2027 .. opportunity to the upside over that is huge. Dyor.

I hope you are correct.

They still require cash to drill WN to prove it will flow.

Ujo and rathlin have none. RBD burn rate means they won't have much by next Summer.

Rohan .. if prepared to back them may improve their negotiating hand.

V unclear how it will play out but next 3 to 6 months is the crunch, thats for sure.

The investment vehicle is called Crypto Cousins LLC ... same family name ... so unless you believe in crazy coincidences Rohan Oza is Sachin's cousin ...

Is it a "clean" shell? ... has a number of assets, liabilities in Oil/Gas business?!

But ... what does a US investor specialising in brands .. with a net worth of $500m .. want with RBD??

Any new licence awards , will in Trumps words, give them more cards to play .. for farm out negotiations and/or an early production deal.

Looks like people are waking up and this is heading back in to the 80s for start of 2026.

Any new licence awards , will in Trumps words, give them more cards to play .. for farm out negotiations and/or an early production deal.

Looks like people are waking up and this is heading back in to the 80s for start of 2026.

V unlikely ... but you never know .. but also approval, financing, market pricing. FID, farm out interest, etc ... can cause delays, require dilution...

But imo asymmetric risk to upside from this mcap...

Upside case well over 350p without kertang, value of Prospective resources or additional deals, licences.

Going to be interesting.

Assuming Dewa and Temaris proceed to FDP approval and are viable ... then the LOWEST valuation I can get is around 250p in 2027"ish ... with zero value for Kertang, prospective resources, new licences.

Significant dilution would affect this .. but its a low estimate and the Board do seem focused on avoiding dilution if possible .. so far.

Recent fall has presented a fantastic opportunity imo... not without risk but looks asymmetric at this price.

DYOR!

Key value driver short/mid term is Vietnam.

FDP final approval is one step but key is the farm out and terms.

Im looking for c.40%+(?) farm out with free carry on JSE's capex to first gas ... then skewed payment of cash flows to farm in partner until capex recovered.

JSE retains 50%+ (?)

Might include a c. $10m++ upfront payment to JSE... but key is the capex carry.

Altjough first gas is years away and therefore the JSE npv uplift will be heaviliy discounted this should still provide a material uplift to share price.

Is this achievable in 2026 .. I hope so?!

Anyone have an active email address for the company or one of the directors ?

I agree Vietnam could be a catalyst to revaluation .. but it all depends on the farm out details.

If they are left with a sizeable working interest but very substantial capex commitments with first gas 3 years away ... that will be problematic ... and I'm not sure how they even finance that.

A huge capex and financing commitment with payback years out won't produce the revaluation we want to see imo ... at least not until production is much closer or underway... and it may actually increase balance sheet risk significantly in a low oil price environment.

I think reality is they need to farm out a significant majority of the project probably for cash and ideally a free carry?!

Those with industry knowledge please comment.

Added.... latest chunk 62.4p

At fixed price !

Asset swap might be way to go .. if could get $3 boe for c.40% Temaris .. that could get something decent?!

A late life opp with potential to extend with solid facilities in place and without ruinous capex would be interesting if could effectively finance via taking on any decomm liabilities ... if decent distance in future.

Does Seascape have late life asset management skills? Jadestone or other companies probably much better suited.

The 2c is v exciting .. and agree re pricing .. I tend to assume $2 per boe value as a potential sale price/farm in price .. although could be more for Temaris depending on how convincing the (huge?!) prospective resources are.

However, an acquisition is a very double edged sword .. Menzies has stated a few times they can't find at right price that doesn't dilute what they have. Limited cash would almost certainly mean heavy equity dilution and debt for anything meaningful...also opens company up to short term commodity price volatility at this early stage and increases risk profile significantly. Would need to be exactly right. So I like their caution.

Although it tests the patience .. a train of licences is my favoured approach.. these are very low risk financial/work commitments ...add value, work up to fdp and farm down .. farm in income starts from 2026 with Dewa ?.. not hard to see how this could start to ramp up quickly by 2027 if another 2 or 3 licences in next 6 months ... then production income from mid/late 2028? And at potentially minimal dilution.

With Kertang potential too.

Yes, I think thats right... money exiting the markets and UK more generally.

The value here seems pretty solid though.

The Temaris FDP has to be submitted around Dec 2026. Dewa fdp - I think enquest targeting draft about now to commence commercial negotiations .. FID late 27?

The (only?) biggest issue here is patience .. 1st production will take a while, kertang drill also.

But for those prepared to wait, accumulate .. good chance of multiples from here .. with new deal/licence sp spikes along the way.

I sliced off some in mid 80s simply because it rose so far so fast .. am buying them back in 60s.

The value here is clear and not really impacted too much by current commodity prices .. other than any impact on any potential partners' / acquiror's current financial position.

At c. 63mm boe a post fdp value of $3 means the assets/reserves are worth c. $180m+ ... with nothing for Kertang.

Even at $2 per boe it would suggest the company is worth taking out by a buyer at $130m, £100m, well over double the current sp.

For that the buyer also gets huge upside for free on kertang, and the exploration upside of 700bcf at Temaris, as well as post dev npv > purchase cost.

Given industry interest in Temaris, I suspect there could be as much chance that the compsny is taken over as farms out Temaris.

Still v much under the radar as far as AIM concerned.

VFM at this price.

Temaris alone at 40+mm boe with an FDP in place could be sold for at least $3 per boe... double current sp.

Add on to that

The large potential on top at Temaris.

DEWA

Kertang

Additional licences/deals.

No, it can't be Tyrus .. there is no grace period .. if a buy takes you to 30%, then the offer has to be immediate .. that's my understanding (unless exempted from making the bid).