Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Helpful, your post at 12.14 'fingers crossed' ....is that part of the plan?
How can you defend the current lot? How have the current BoD got the business into a situation where it cannot access a significant proportion of its assets....and we have to cross our fingers...sounds like negligence?
Again - v little detail released about this....why's?
Think i prefer stroppy randomer to mate tbh......<br /><br />you raised the point about buying, not me.....as some sort of encouragement to the long suffering here.... I just brought it back to the facts.... timing, probably, confidence in interim ceo,etc.... all just words... like I said time for evidence, facts, please.
Think i prefer stroppy randomer to mate tbh......<br /><br />you raised the point about buying, not me.....as some sort of encouragement to the long suffering here.... I just brought it back to the facts.... timing, probably, confidence in interim ceo,etc.... all just words... like I said time for evidence, facts, please.
Helpful .....note your point below... re opinion of currently running at b/eve output...and follow up to my point...on production stats:-
Present following at or before AGM.....
Detailed information on current and recent production by property/asset, by well... clearly presented, averages post flush, ..... let's see what it shows.... prove its break even or more (I.e. clarity on cost run rates also)...and sustainable.... present the plan and timeline to get to 300 bopd....give the shareholders robust, believable information.....this should not be too tough an assignment for the interim CEO given his years of involvement with the business. Provide clarity re tge cash position and no need for a placing. Do this and the BoD can buy some time..... Unfortunately the RNS today suggests none of this is known ....how can that be.....just how can that be....? If I'm wrong then PA and CW can clarify at AGM with the above.....and we'll all be absolutely delighted.....at the end of the day I presume we all want same thing....but words, promises and wishlists will not cut it.... BoD needs to present facts, evidence, clear stats, robust plans.
No need to be rude ....mate.
With regards to you telling me anything I note you certainly didn't bother to tell me anything about the appalling management of the business I put to you yesterday.
As you didnt quite get it....I was merely making the point ..... average bopd .....pretty important figure don't you think... worthy of having been clearly reported in the half year report....possibly even by asset... or well....by month....too difficult? If i missed it maybe you could point me to the relevant paragraph that shows the succinct summary.
Anyway look, happy to be proved wrong and for all to be pleasantly revealed Thursday... btw... I think you'll find I know exactly how this works.
....and I have to say.... not buying now....PROBABLY in a couple of weeks..... big vote of confidence in the interim CEO!?
Helpful, i know you were concerned about production ceasing while board changes are made....which i see no reason for at all.
But given your concern i presume you therefore know and can advise what the CURRENT bopd is..... that's not the flush barrels over a 6 hour period pro rata, or suchlike...but lets say average bopd across all the assets over the last week.... if you can't provide this can you confirm the new chair will provide at AGM?
Brokers can and will be flexible about getting a letter of representation to vote.... ring them and tell them you want to register a vote against the directors' reelection and see what they can do.
The rig will only be in place for up to 45days. The horizontal well will be drilled from onshore through the already established wytch farm. This is NOT navitus bay (wind farm project rejected in Bournemouth bay).... v unlikely to be any issues.
Got a bit ahead of myself .... production from test Q1..... from the RNS last week - <br /><br />'Successful implementation of the Operational Plan is forecast to result in a combined average production rate of 300 bopd from up to 5 Herrera sand intervals spread over two production wells.'<br /><br />'Operational and environmental meetings have been held in Trinidad to progress regulatory consents and to agree a project schedule that works for all parties given that this is the first large-scale C02 EOR project in Trinidad for a number of years. As a result a target of Q1 2019 has been set for first incremental production from Pilot C02 EOR operations. This is consistent with the terms of the Company's amended Well Participation Agreement with FRAM'<br /><br />'A successful Pilot Project opens the door to expedient upscaling to further develop multi-million barrel producing oil fields onshore Trinidad using the technology and vision being pioneered in practice by your Company'
What am I missing.... aren't prd effectively already producing 300 bopd... at $15 netback (current wti) from their 2 test wells using co2....that's $1.6m pa......there's 80+ wells they can apply this to....with potentially significantly higher bopd output. Looks like strong BoD to me too.
Agree 're netback figure Bradley. Will of course depend on WTI price...which I see is currently $3 ahead of the $73 assumption used for the 10 - 12.... 8m to 15m barrels of oil to go for. Say 10m at $15 netback.... capex low, bit of decommissioning?.... well over $100m... market cap £7m!
Oh Bradley Bear that really is conservative on conservative...!
Just for balance...slightly less conservative view.... PG stated
1) $10 to $12 (at $73.25 oil price) netback was conservative on costs...likely upside here imo
2) wells could produce a lot more..I think he mentioned 400+ possibly dyor
3) there are 83 (?) wells, conservatively assume co2 only appropriate for half...ie 40!
4) no new wells required, low capex
Helpful.. you're exactly right ...'What matters is getting the production online' ...... you really think Charlie is the man to do that...?? ...come on get a grip... what's the evidence? Theres no chance, we need an experienced, focused oil operator to run this...someone who knows how to manage and monetize these assets.
The business has consistently not delivered on its objectives or RNS statements over a long period. RNS statements have been inaccurate at best, misleading at worst. The current BoD has not demonstrated that it is capable of monetizing what all observers believe are strong assets.
Its clear sharrholders need a strong, operational focused CEO full time on the ground in the US to drive things forwards. That is not and cannot be CW.
A bit of short term pain with the changes....but the route to a SP over 1p as soon as confidence is restored, the potential of the assets clearly communicated and demonstratex with production pushed above break even bopd and on towards stated targets.
Listen to Vox Markets Podcast update 04/10/18 -
CO2 process independently validated - produced 6x production uplift - 300 bopd from 2 wells - can be increased substantially.
86 wells in field - say half suitable for CO2. Lox capex, no new well drilling costs.
CO2 supplies secured.
Netback $12 per barrel with oil at $73.25 (v conservative).....not that difficult to see CASH pa of $20m+ PA in medium term ..... and could be a lot higher.
CEO owns half the shares
and then there's Ireland!!
Market cap of just £7m ... amazed it hasn't moved up sharply based on the update.
From what I can see from RNS this year portfolio of well work-overs once access rights are sorted out :-
5 wells at Austin Chalk - these alone have produced initial flow rates of 214 bopd gross
17 wells at Zink Ranch
1 well + gas at Stockdale
9 wells at Forest Hill
Should be plenty of upside once things are organised
GS - Couple of Qu's:
1) How many tonnes proven reserves does this have? If an explorer had those proven reserves pre production it would be worth multiples of CRA current market cap + debt ....is there a rule of thumb for value per tonne of copper in the ground?
2) What is the gross debt and who's it owed to? Likelihood of renegotiating terms?
If this can get to a break-even position without significant dilution it must be worth many multiples of current market cap assuming it can then push on towards nameplate even if investment in plant required.
At $73.25 net-back is stated as $10 - $12.
So at lower end of production possibility (8m barrels) that's $80m - $96m cash over life of wells before capex and decommissioning .... at higher end of exploitable reserves it's $150m - $180m....and if oil goes up $10 its $330m ...... And then there's Ireland!!........against a current market cap £7m.... I'm IN!
Dyor.
Just done v rough npv calculation. Reckon if PRE can extract c.8m barrels at $12 netback finishing in 2029 the NPV could be c.£45m.... rns states there could be twice as much available....AND this is without Ireland.....current market just £7.2m. Dyor